Articles | Volume 30, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-227-2026
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-227-2026
Research article
 | 
15 Jan 2026
Research article |  | 15 Jan 2026

Insights into uncertainties in future drought analysis using hydrological simulation model

Jin Hyuck Kim and Eun-Sung Chung

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Cited articles

Arsenault, R., Brissette, F., and Martel, J. L.: The hazards of split-sample validation in hydrological model calibration, J. Hydrol., 566, 346–362, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.09.027, 2018. 
Ashrafi, S. M., Gholami, H., and Najafi, M. R.: Uncertainties in runoff projection and hydrological drought assessment over Gharesu basin under CMIP5 RCP scenarios, J. Water Clim. Chang., 11, 145–163, https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2020.088, 2020. 
Bai, P., Liu, X., and Xie, J.: Simulating runoff under changing climatic conditions: a comparison of the long short-term memory network with two conceptual hydrologic models, J. Hydrol., 592, 125779, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125779, 2021. 
Bosshard, T., Carambia, M., Goergen, K., Kotlarski, S., Krahe, P., Zappa, M., and Schär, C.: Quantifying uncertainty sources in an ensemble of hydrological climate-impact projections, Water Resour. Res., 49, 1523–1536, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011WR011533, 2013. 
Broderick, C., Matthews, T., Wilby, R. L., Bastola, S., and Murphy, C.: Transferability of hydrological models and ensemble averaging methods between contrasting climatic periods, Water Resour. Res., 52, 8343–8373, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016WR018850, 2016. 
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Short summary
Hydrological simulation requires parameter calibration. This study quantifies uncertainties in future runoff and drought using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool, twenty general circulation models, and shared socioeconomic pathway scenarios. Results show calibration conditions significantly impact low-flow projections. While climate models dominate uncertainty, calibration choices contribute notably, highlighting the need for robust strategies in water resource planning.
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