Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
HESS
Articles | Volume 30, issue 1
Articles | Volume 30, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-227-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-227-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 30, issue 1
Research article
 | 
15 Jan 2026
Research article |  | 15 Jan 2026

Insights into uncertainties in future drought analysis using hydrological simulation model

Jin Hyuck Kim and Eun-Sung Chung

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Short summary
Hydrological simulation requires parameter calibration. This study quantifies uncertainties in future runoff and drought using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool, twenty general circulation models, and shared socioeconomic pathway scenarios. Results show calibration conditions significantly impact low-flow projections. While climate models dominate uncertainty, calibration choices contribute notably, highlighting the need for robust strategies in water resource planning.
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