Articles | Volume 30, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-1813-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-1813-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
02 Apr 2026
Research article |
| 02 Apr 2026
| 02 Apr 2026
From grid to ground: how well do gridded products represent soil moisture dynamics in natural ecosystems during precipitation events?
Daniel A. Núñez-Ibarra
Center for Climate and Resilience Research, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile
Master's Program in Territorial Management of Natural Resources (GESTREN), Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile
Data Observatory Foundation, ANID Technology Center, Santiago, Chile
Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Civil Engineering, Universidad de la Frontera, Temuco, Chile
Center for Climate and Resilience Research, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile
Mauricio Galleguillos
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Facultad de Ingeniería y Ciencias, Universidad Adolfo Ibáñez, Santiago, Chile
Data Observatory Foundation, ANID Technology Center, Santiago, Chile
Center for Climate and Resilience Research, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile
now at: Departamento de Ecosistemas y Sistemas Naturales, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile
now at: Departamento de Ingeniería Hidráulica y Medio Ambiente, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago Chile
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Cristóbal Soto-Escobar, Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini, Violeta Tolorza, and René Garreaud
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 30, 91–117, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-91-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-91-2026, 2026
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This study assesses how spatial patterns, temporal trends, and record length in hourly precipitation data affect annual maximum intensities estimated with stationary and non-stationary models across a climatically and topographically diverse region. Comparing five gridded datasets, we find consistent spatial patterns but notable differences in intensities, with non-stationary estimates generally slightly lower.
René Garreaud, Juan Pablo Boisier, Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Duncan A. Christie, Tomás Carrasco-Escaff, Iván Vergara, Roberto O. Chávez, Paulina Aldunce, Pablo Camus, Manuel Suazo-Álvarez, Mariano Masiokas, Gabriel Castro, Ariel Muñoz, Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini, Rodrigo Fuster, and Lintsiee Godoy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 5347–5369, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-5347-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-5347-2025, 2025
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This study focuses on hyperdroughts (HDs) in central Chile, defined as years with a regional rainfall deficit exceeding 75 %. Only five HDs occurred in the last century (1924, 1968, 1998, 2019, 2021), but they caused disproportionate environmental and social impacts. In some systems, the effects were larger than expected from those considering moderate droughts and dependent on the antecedent conditions. HDs have analogs from the remote past, and they are expected to increase in the near future.
Juan Pablo Boisier, Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Rodrigo Marinao, and Mauricio Galleguillos
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 5185–5212, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-5185-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-5185-2025, 2025
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Our study assesses water stress in Chile from the mid-20th century to the end of the 21st century using novel datasets on water availability, land use, and water demand. We compute a water stress index for all basins in the country and show that, in addition to declining precipitation, rising water demand drives a steady increase in stress. As a drier future is projected for central Chile, the water stress index provides a useful tool for guiding water governance and adaptation strategies.
Fabián Lema, Pablo A. Mendoza, Nicolás A. Vásquez, Naoki Mizukami, Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini, and Ximena Vargas
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1981–2002, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1981-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1981-2025, 2025
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Hydrological droughts affect ecosystems and socioeconomic activities worldwide. Despite the fact that they are commonly described with the Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI), there is limited understanding of what they truly reflect in terms of water cycle processes. Here, we used state-of-the-art hydrological models in Andean basins to examine drivers of SSI fluctuations. The results highlight the importance of careful selection of indices and timescales for accurate drought characterization and monitoring.
Anne F. Van Loon, Sarra Kchouk, Alessia Matanó, Faranak Tootoonchi, Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Khalid E. A. Hassaballah, Minchao Wu, Marthe L. K. Wens, Anastasiya Shyrokaya, Elena Ridolfi, Riccardo Biella, Viorica Nagavciuc, Marlies H. Barendrecht, Ana Bastos, Louise Cavalcante, Franciska T. de Vries, Margaret Garcia, Johanna Mård, Ileen N. Streefkerk, Claudia Teutschbein, Roshanak Tootoonchi, Ruben Weesie, Valentin Aich, Juan P. Boisier, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Yiheng Du, Mauricio Galleguillos, René Garreaud, Monica Ionita, Sina Khatami, Johanna K. L. Koehler, Charles H. Luce, Shreedhar Maskey, Heidi D. Mendoza, Moses N. Mwangi, Ilias G. Pechlivanidis, Germano G. Ribeiro Neto, Tirthankar Roy, Robert Stefanski, Patricia Trambauer, Elizabeth A. Koebele, Giulia Vico, and Micha Werner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3173–3205, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3173-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3173-2024, 2024
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Drought is a creeping phenomenon but is often still analysed and managed like an isolated event, without taking into account what happened before and after. Here, we review the literature and analyse five cases to discuss how droughts and their impacts develop over time. We find that the responses of hydrological, ecological, and social systems can be classified into four types and that the systems interact. We provide suggestions for further research and monitoring, modelling, and management.
Violeta Tolorza, Christian H. Mohr, Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini, Benjamín Sotomayor, Dagoberto Poblete-Caballero, Sebastien Carretier, Mauricio Galleguillos, and Oscar Seguel
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 841–861, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-841-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-841-2024, 2024
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We calculated disturbances and landscape-lowering rates across various timescales in a ~ 406 km2 catchment in the Chilean Coastal Range. Intensive management of exotic tree plantations involves short rotational cycles (planting and harvesting by replanting clear-cuts) lasting 9–25 years, dense forestry road networks (increasing connectivity), and a recent increase in wildfires. Concurrently, persistent drought conditions and the high water demand of fast-growing trees reduce water availability.
Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Juan Pablo Boisier, René Garreaud, Javier González, Roberto Rondanelli, Eugenia Gayó, and Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1605–1616, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1605-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1605-2024, 2024
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This opinion paper reflects on the risks of overusing groundwater savings to supply permanent water use requirements. Using novel data recently developed for Chile, we reveal how groundwater is being overused, causing ecological and socioeconomic impacts and concealing a Day Zero
scenario. Our argument underscores the need for reformed water allocation rules and sustainable management, shifting from a perception of groundwater as an unlimited source to a finite and vital one.
Oscar M. Baez-Villanueva, Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini, Diego G. Miralles, Hylke E. Beck, Jonatan F. Siegmund, Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Koen Verbist, René Garreaud, Juan Pablo Boisier, and Mauricio Galleguillos
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1415–1439, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1415-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1415-2024, 2024
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Various drought indices exist, but there is no consensus on which index to use to assess streamflow droughts. This study addresses meteorological, soil moisture, and snow indices along with their temporal scales to assess streamflow drought across hydrologically diverse catchments. Using data from 100 Chilean catchments, findings suggest that there is not a single drought index that can be used for all catchments and that snow-influenced areas require drought indices with larger temporal scales.
Jorge F. Perez-Quezada, David Trejo, Javier Lopatin, David Aguilera, Bruce Osborne, Mauricio Galleguillos, Luca Zattera, Juan L. Celis-Diez, and Juan J. Armesto
Biogeosciences, 21, 1371–1389, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1371-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1371-2024, 2024
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For 8 years we sampled a temperate rainforest and a peatland in Chile to estimate their efficiency to capture carbon per unit of water lost. The efficiency is more related to the water lost than to the carbon captured and is mainly driven by evaporation instead of transpiration. This is the first report from southern South America and highlights that ecosystems might behave differently in this area, likely explained by the high annual precipitation (~ 2100 mm) and light-limited conditions.
Heidi Kreibich, Kai Schröter, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Anne F. Van Loon, Maurizio Mazzoleni, Guta Wakbulcho Abeshu, Svetlana Agafonova, Amir AghaKouchak, Hafzullah Aksoy, Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Blanca Aznar, Laila Balkhi, Marlies H. Barendrecht, Sylvain Biancamaria, Liduin Bos-Burgering, Chris Bradley, Yus Budiyono, Wouter Buytaert, Lucinda Capewell, Hayley Carlson, Yonca Cavus, Anaïs Couasnon, Gemma Coxon, Ioannis Daliakopoulos, Marleen C. de Ruiter, Claire Delus, Mathilde Erfurt, Giuseppe Esposito, Didier François, Frédéric Frappart, Jim Freer, Natalia Frolova, Animesh K. Gain, Manolis Grillakis, Jordi Oriol Grima, Diego A. Guzmán, Laurie S. Huning, Monica Ionita, Maxim Kharlamov, Dao Nguyen Khoi, Natalie Kieboom, Maria Kireeva, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Waldo Lavado-Casimiro, Hong-Yi Li, Maria Carmen LLasat, David Macdonald, Johanna Mård, Hannah Mathew-Richards, Andrew McKenzie, Alfonso Mejia, Eduardo Mario Mendiondo, Marjolein Mens, Shifteh Mobini, Guilherme Samprogna Mohor, Viorica Nagavciuc, Thanh Ngo-Duc, Huynh Thi Thao Nguyen, Pham Thi Thao Nhi, Olga Petrucci, Nguyen Hong Quan, Pere Quintana-Seguí, Saman Razavi, Elena Ridolfi, Jannik Riegel, Md Shibly Sadik, Nivedita Sairam, Elisa Savelli, Alexey Sazonov, Sanjib Sharma, Johanna Sörensen, Felipe Augusto Arguello Souza, Kerstin Stahl, Max Steinhausen, Michael Stoelzle, Wiwiana Szalińska, Qiuhong Tang, Fuqiang Tian, Tamara Tokarczyk, Carolina Tovar, Thi Van Thu Tran, Marjolein H. J. van Huijgevoort, Michelle T. H. van Vliet, Sergiy Vorogushyn, Thorsten Wagener, Yueling Wang, Doris E. Wendt, Elliot Wickham, Long Yang, Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini, and Philip J. Ward
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2009–2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2009-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2009-2023, 2023
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As the adverse impacts of hydrological extremes increase in many regions of the world, a better understanding of the drivers of changes in risk and impacts is essential for effective flood and drought risk management. We present a dataset containing data of paired events, i.e. two floods or two droughts that occurred in the same area. The dataset enables comparative analyses and allows detailed context-specific assessments. Additionally, it supports the testing of socio-hydrological models.
Alejandro Miranda, Rayén Mentler, Ítalo Moletto-Lobos, Gabriela Alfaro, Leonardo Aliaga, Dana Balbontín, Maximiliano Barraza, Susanne Baumbach, Patricio Calderón, Fernando Cárdenas, Iván Castillo, Gonzalo Contreras, Felipe de la Barra, Mauricio Galleguillos, Mauro E. González, Carlos Hormazábal, Antonio Lara, Ian Mancilla, Francisca Muñoz, Cristian Oyarce, Francisca Pantoja, Rocío Ramírez, and Vicente Urrutia
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 3599–3613, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-3599-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-3599-2022, 2022
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Achieving a local understanding of fire regimes requires high-resolution, systematic and dynamic data. High-quality information can help to transform evidence into decision-making. Taking advantage of big-data and remote sensing technics we developed a flexible workflow to reconstruct burned area and fire severity data for more than 8000 individual fires in Chile. The framework developed for the database can be applied anywhere in the world with minimal adaptation.
Oscar M. Baez-Villanueva, Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini, Pablo A. Mendoza, Ian McNamara, Hylke E. Beck, Joschka Thurner, Alexandra Nauditt, Lars Ribbe, and Nguyen Xuan Thinh
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5805–5837, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5805-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5805-2021, 2021
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Most rivers worldwide are ungauged, which hinders the sustainable management of water resources. Regionalisation methods use information from gauged rivers to estimate streamflow over ungauged ones. Through hydrological modelling, we assessed how the selection of precipitation products affects the performance of three regionalisation methods. We found that a precipitation product that provides the best results in hydrological modelling does not necessarily perform the best for regionalisation.
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Short summary
Soil moisture plays a key role in how land and climate interact, yet it remains difficult to measure in remote or natural areas. This study compared four state-of-the-art soil moisture datasets against ground data from ten sites in Chile. Results show that some products perform better in humid areas, while others do better in dry regions. The work highlights which datasets are most reliable and suggests new ways to assess how well they track changes after precipitation events.
Soil moisture plays a key role in how land and climate interact, yet it remains difficult to...
