Articles | Volume 30, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-163-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-163-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| Highlight paper
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13 Jan 2026
Research article | Highlight paper |
| 13 Jan 2026
| 13 Jan 2026
Global projections of aridity index for mid and long-term future based on CMIP6 scenarios
Camille Crapart
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Univ. Grenoble Alpes, IRD, CNRS, INRAE, Grenoble INP, IGE, 38000 Grenoble, France
Sandrine Anquetin
Univ. Grenoble Alpes, IRD, CNRS, INRAE, Grenoble INP, IGE, 38000 Grenoble, France
Juliette Blanchet
Univ. Grenoble Alpes, IRD, CNRS, INRAE, Grenoble INP, IGE, 38000 Grenoble, France
Arona Diedhiou
Univ. Grenoble Alpes, IRD, CNRS, INRAE, Grenoble INP, IGE, 38000 Grenoble, France
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Ian Castellanos, Martin Ménégoz, Juliette Blanchet, Julien Beaumet, Hubert Gallée, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Chantal Staquet, and Xavier Fettweis
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6211, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6211, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Earth System Dynamics (ESD).
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The Alps host glaciers, distinct ecosystems, socio-economic interests and water resources that are being impacted by climate change. In this study, we aim at understanding how warming occurs in the Alps in projected scenarios and what physical processes drive it. We find under these scenarios that elevations around the snowline will warm faster than elsewhere, because snow retreats to higher elevations. Indeed, snow slows down warming due to its high albedo and the energy consumed to melt it.
Gerhard Krinner, Aude Champouillon, Juliette Blanchet, and Frédérique Chéruy
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3553, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3553, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
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Although the scientific community has made much progress over the last decades, climate models still do not perfectly simulate the present climate. Therefore, the model outputs are usually corrected for these errors. This article presents a method to apply successive stages of repeated error correction that lead to a better simulation of the present climate than in previous studies, in which the same correction method had been applied only once.
Serigne Bassirou Diop, Job Ekolu, Yves Tramblay, Bastien Dieppois, Stefania Grimaldi, Ansoumana Bodian, Juliette Blanchet, Ponnambalam Rameshwaran, Peter Salamon, and Benjamin Sultan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3161–3184, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3161-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3161-2025, 2025
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West Africa is very vulnerable to river floods. Current flood hazards are poorly understood due to limited data. This study is filling this knowledge gap using recent databases and two regional hydrological models to analyze changes in flood risk under two climate scenarios. Results show that most areas will see more frequent and severe floods, with some increasing by over 45 %. These findings stress the urgent need for climate-resilient strategies to protect communities and infrastructure.
Sebastian Berghald, Juliette Blanchet, Antoine Blanc, and David Penot
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3073, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3073, 2025
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Our study analyses extreme precipitation in the French Alps using extreme value theory on long-term observations. We compare daily and hourly observations and find regionally and seasonally different trends. On annual resolution, daily extremes show positive trends in the south and negative trends in the north, while trends in hourly extremes are noisier with an appearing east-west divide between increases in the high Alps and decreases in the pre-Alps.
Carlo Destouches, Arona Diedhiou, Sandrine Anquetin, Benoit Hingray, Armand Pierre, Dominique Boisson, and Adermus Joseph
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 497–512, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-497-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-497-2025, 2025
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This work provides a relevant analysis of changes in extreme precipitation over the Caribbean and their link with warming in different ocean basins. It also improves our understanding of the impact of warming on extreme precipitation events, which can cause devastating damage to economic sectors such as agriculture, biodiversity, health, and energy.
Léo Clauzel, Sandrine Anquetin, Christophe Lavaysse, Gilles Bergametti, Christel Bouet, Guillaume Siour, Rémy Lapere, Béatrice Marticorena, and Jennie Thomas
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 997–1021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-997-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-997-2025, 2025
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Solar energy production in West Africa is set to rise and needs accurate solar radiation estimates which are affected by desert dust. This work analyses a March 2021 dust event using a modelling strategy incorporating desert dust. Results show that considering desert dust cuts errors in solar radiation estimates by 75 % and reduces surface solar radiation by 18 %. This highlights the importance of incorporating dust aerosols into solar forecasting for better accuracy.
Koffi Claude Alain Kouadio, Siélé Silué, Ernest Amoussou, Kouakou Lazare Kouassi, Arona Diedhiou, Talnan Jean Honoré Coulibaly, Salomon Obahoundjé, Sacré Regis Didi, and Houebagnon Saint Jean Coulibaly
Proc. IAHS, 385, 39–45, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-385-39-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-385-39-2024, 2024
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Hydropower (HP) is the 2nd source of energy in Côte d'Ivoire. However water resource for HP is threatened by climate change (CC). Therefore the hydro potential and production are impacted. This study investigates the impacts of future CC in the White Bandama watershed using hydrological modelling coupled with GIS analysis. It emerges that in the future an upward trend in flows will be recorded. This could contribute to the siltation of dams and an increase in the risk of flooding in the basin.
Erwan Le Roux, Guillaume Evin, Raphaëlle Samacoïts, Nicolas Eckert, Juliette Blanchet, and Samuel Morin
The Cryosphere, 17, 4691–4704, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4691-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4691-2023, 2023
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We assess projected changes in snowfall extremes in the French Alps as a function of elevation and global warming level for a high-emission scenario. On average, heavy snowfall is projected to decrease below 3000 m and increase above 3600 m, while extreme snowfall is projected to decrease below 2400 m and increase above 3300 m. At elevations in between, an increase is projected until +3 °C of global warming and then a decrease. These results have implications for the management of risks.
Juliette Blanchet, Alix Reverdy, Antoine Blanc, Jean-Dominique Creutin, Périne Kiennemann, and Guillaume Evin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-197, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-197, 2023
Revised manuscript not accepted
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The Alpine region is strongly affected by torrential floods, sometimes leading to severe negative impacts on society, economy, and the environment. Understanding such natural hazards and their drivers is essential to mitigate related risks. In this article we study the atmospheric conditions at the origin of damaging torrential events in the Northern French Alps over the long run, using a database of reported occurrence of damaging torrential flooding in the Grenoble conurbation since 1851.
Ma-Lyse Nema, Bachir Saley Mahaman, Arona Diedhiou, and Assiel Mugabe
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-47, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-47, 2023
Revised manuscript not accepted
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My early experience inspired me to write this paper because I was always curious about the reasons behind the frequent landslides that occurred in the area where I was born. Now, my dream has come true because this study was centered on the same region, same people, and because I discovered the causes and preventative measures for landslides in my area. I hope that when establishing policies for disaster management in the study area, decision-makers will take these results into consideration.
Juliette Blanchet, Alix Reverdy, Antoine Blanc, Jean-Dominique Creutin, Périne Kiennemann, and Guillaume Evin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-276, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-276, 2023
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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We study the atmospheric conditions at the origin of damaging torrential events in the Northern French Alps over the long run. We consider seven atmospheric variables that describe the nature of the air masses involved and the possible triggers of precipitation and we try to isolate the most discriminating variables. The results show that humidity and particularly humidity transport plays the greatest role under westerly flows while instability potential is mostly at play under southerly flows.
Erwan Le Roux, Guillaume Evin, Nicolas Eckert, Juliette Blanchet, and Samuel Morin
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1059–1075, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1059-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1059-2022, 2022
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Anticipating risks related to climate extremes is critical for societal adaptation to climate change. In this study, we propose a statistical method in order to estimate future climate extremes from past observations and an ensemble of climate change simulations. We apply this approach to snow load data available in the French Alps at 1500 m elevation and find that extreme snow load is projected to decrease by −2.9 kN m−2 (−50 %) between 1986–2005 and 2080–2099 for a high-emission scenario.
Abubakar Haruna, Juliette Blanchet, and Anne-Catherine Favre
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2797–2811, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2797-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2797-2022, 2022
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Reliable prediction of floods depends on the quality of the input data such as precipitation. However, estimation of precipitation from the local measurements is known to be difficult, especially for extremes. Regionalization improves the estimates by increasing the quantity of data available for estimation. Here, we compare three regionalization methods based on their robustness and reliability. We apply the comparison to a dense network of daily stations within and outside Switzerland.
Eva Boisson, Bruno Wilhelm, Emmanuel Garnier, Alain Mélo, Sandrine Anquetin, and Isabelle Ruin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 831–847, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-831-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-831-2022, 2022
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We present the database of Historical Impacts of Floods in the Arve Valley (HIFAVa). It reports flood occurrences and impacts (1850–2015) in a French Alpine catchment. Our results show an increasing occurrence of impacts from 1920 onwards, which is more likely related to indirect source effects and/or increasing exposure rather than hydrological changes. The analysis reveals that small mountain streams caused more impacts (67 %) than the main river.
Antoine Blanc, Juliette Blanchet, and Jean-Dominique Creutin
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 231–250, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-231-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-231-2022, 2022
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Precipitation variability and extremes in the northern French Alps are governed by the atmospheric circulation over western Europe. In this work, we study the past evolution of western Europe large-scale circulation using atmospheric descriptors. We show some discrepancies in the trends obtained from different reanalyses before 1950. After 1950, we find trends in Mediterranean circulations that appear to be linked with trends in seasonal and extreme precipitation in the northern French Alps.
Brahima Koné, Arona Diedhiou, Adama Diawara, Sandrine Anquetin, N'datchoh Evelyne Touré, Adama Bamba, and Arsene Toka Kobea
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 711–730, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-711-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-711-2022, 2022
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The impact of initial soil moisture anomalies can persist for up to 3–4 months and is greater on temperature than on precipitation over West Africa. The strongest homogeneous impact on temperature is located over the Central Sahel, with a peak change of −1.5 and 0.5 °C in the wet and dry experiments, respectively. The strongest impact on precipitation in the wet and dry experiments is found over the West and Central Sahel, with a peak change of about 40 % and −8 %, respectively.
Brahima Koné, Arona Diedhiou, Adama Diawara, Sandrine Anquetin, N'datchoh Evelyne Touré, Adama Bamba, and Arsene Toka Kobea
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 731–754, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-731-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-731-2022, 2022
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The impact of initial soil moisture is more significant on temperature extremes than on precipitation extremes. A stronger impact is found on maximum temperature than on minimum temperature. The impact on extreme precipitation indices is homogeneous, especially over the Central Sahel, and dry (wet) experiments tend to decrease (increase) the number of precipitation extreme events but not their intensity.
Salomon Obahoundje, Ernest Amoussou, Marc Youan Ta, Lazare Kouakou Kouassi, and Arona Diedhiou
Proc. IAHS, 384, 343–347, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-384-343-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-384-343-2021, 2021
Affoué Berthe Yao, Sampah Georges Eblin, Loukou Alexis Brou, Kouakou Lazare Kouassi, Gla Blaise Ouede, Ibrahim Salifou, Arona Diedhiou, and Bi Crépin Péné
Proc. IAHS, 384, 203–211, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-384-203-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-384-203-2021, 2021
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This study aims to analyse the frequency, intensity and duration of extreme climate events in order to optimise sugarcane production in the Ferkessédougou sugar complexes. This study could enable the Ferkessédougou sugar complexes managers to develop strategies for adaptation to climate change.
Erwan Le Roux, Guillaume Evin, Nicolas Eckert, Juliette Blanchet, and Samuel Morin
The Cryosphere, 15, 4335–4356, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4335-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4335-2021, 2021
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Extreme snowfall can cause major natural hazards (avalanches, winter storms) that can generate casualties and economic damage. In the French Alps, we show that between 1959 and 2019 extreme snowfall mainly decreased below 2000 m of elevation and increased above 2000 m. At 2500 m, we find a contrasting pattern: extreme snowfall decreased in the north, while it increased in the south. This pattern might be related to increasing trends in extreme snowfall observed near the Mediterranean Sea.
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Executive editor
This study analyses global trends in aridity, which is highly relevant for hydrological impact studies and understanding global patterns of climate change.
This study analyses global trends in aridity, which is highly relevant for hydrological impact...
Short summary
Our study investigates global dryland dynamics and aridification under future climate scenarios. By employing the Food and Agriculture Organisation Aridity Index and an ensemble of 13 models from the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, we provide projections for dryland distribution and aridity index across three shared socio-economic pathways (2-4.5, 3-7.0, and 5-8.5) for the near-term (2030–2059) and for the long-term (2070–2099) future.
Our study investigates global dryland dynamics and aridification under future climate scenarios....
