Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
HESS
Articles | Volume 30, issue 1
Articles | Volume 30, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-163-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-163-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 30, issue 1
Research article
 | Highlight paper
 | 
13 Jan 2026
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 13 Jan 2026

Global projections of aridity index for mid and long-term future based on CMIP6 scenarios

Camille Crapart, Sandrine Anquetin, Juliette Blanchet, and Arona Diedhiou

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This study analyses global trends in aridity, which is highly relevant for hydrological impact studies and understanding global patterns of climate change.
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Short summary
Our study investigates global dryland dynamics and aridification under future climate scenarios. By employing the Food and Agriculture Organisation Aridity Index and an ensemble of 13 models from the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, we provide projections for dryland distribution and aridity index across three shared socio-economic pathways (2-4.5, 3-7.0, and 5-8.5) for the near-term (2030–2059) and for the long-term (2070–2099) future.
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