Articles | Volume 30, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-1117-2026
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-1117-2026
Research article
 | 
26 Feb 2026
Research article |  | 26 Feb 2026

Uncertainties in long-term ensemble estimates of contextual evapotranspiration over southern France

Samuel Mwangi, Albert Olioso, Jordi Etchanchu, Kanishka Mallick, Aolin Jia, Jérôme Demarty, Nesrine Farhani, Emmanuelle Sarrazin, Philippe Gamet, Jean-Louis Roujean, and Gilles Boulet

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The TRISHNA Mission: A New Era of High-Resolution Thermal Infrared Earth Observation for Land Surface Monitoring
Philippe Gamet, Bimal K. Bhattacharya, Jean-Louis Roujean, Gilles Boulet, Corinne Salcedo, Albert Olioso, Kanishka Mallick, Marie Weiss, Emmanuelle Sarrazin, Emmanuelle Autret, Laure Roupioz, José Antonio Sobrino, Olivier Merlin, Ghislain Picard, Thomas H. G. Vidal, Mark Irvine, Rahul Nigam, Mehul Pandya, Simon Gascoin, Sébastien Marcq, Manoj K. Mishra, Emilie Delogu, Vincent Rivalland, Jordi Etchanchu, Jean-Louis Raynaud, Meenakshi Sarkar, Rishi K. Gangwar, Sushil K. Singh, Renaud Binet, Sara Arioli, Hervé Yésou, Isabelle Dadou, Alexei Kouraev, Julien Michel, Benoit Coudert, Samuel Mwangi, Nesrine Farhani, Ayan Das, Stéphane Saux-Picart, Thierry Tormos, Jean-François Piollé, Charles Verpoorter, Auline Rodler, Jonathan Leon Tavares, Jennifer Adams, Anand S. Sahadevan, Besavaraju Santhi Sree, Manikumar Vedantam, Dheeraj Adlakha, Laurence Buffet, Kathrin Naegeli, Itziar Barat, Jerome Demarty, Olivier Hagolle, and Philippe Maisongrande
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4492,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4492, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Earth Observation (EO).
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Cited articles

Allies, A., Demarty, J., Olioso, A., Moussa, I. B., Issoufou, H. B. A., Velluet, C., Bahir, M., Maïnassara, I., Oï, M., Chazarin, J. P., and Cappelaere, B.: Evapotranspiration estimation in the sahel using a new ensemble-contextual method, Remote Sens., 12, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs12030380, 2020. 
Allies, A., Olioso, A., Cappelaere, B., Boulet, G., Etchanchu, J., Barral, H., Bouzou Moussa, I., Chazarin, J.-P., Delogu, E., Issoufou, H. B.-A., Mainassara, I., Oï, M., and Demarty, J.: A remote sensing data fusion method for continuous daily evapotranspiration mapping at kilometric scale in Sahelian areas, J. Hydrol., 607, 127504, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.127504, 2022. 
Bonett, D. G.: Confidence interval for a coefficient of quartile variation, Comput. Stat. Data Anal., 50, 2953–2957, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csda.2005.05.007, 2006. 
Boulet, G., Mougenot, B., Lhomme, J.-P., Fanise, P., Lili-Chabaane, Z., Olioso, A., Bahir, M., Rivalland, V., Jarlan, L., Merlin, O., Coudert, B., Er-Raki, S., and Lagouarde, J.-P.: The SPARSE model for the prediction of water stress and evapotranspiration components from thermal infra-red data and its evaluation over irrigated and rainfed wheat, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 4653–4672, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4653-2015, 2015. 
Carlson, T.: An Overview of the “Triangle Method” for Estimating Surface Evapotranspiration and Soil Moisture from Satellite Imagery, Sensors, 7, 1612–1629, https://doi.org/10.3390/s7081612, 2007. 
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The EVapotranspiration Assessment from SPAce (EVASPA) algorithm that will generate TRISHNA evapotranspiration (TRISHNA ET) products shows good agreement with observations. Analyses conducted on 4 variables used in contextual ET modelling showed that land surface temperature and evaporative fraction methods introduce the largest uncertainty in ensemble estimates, followed by radiation. Soil heat flux methods contribute the least. Robust ET products will require optimizing the sensitive variables.
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