Articles | Volume 30, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-1117-2026
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-1117-2026
Research article
 | 
26 Feb 2026
Research article |  | 26 Feb 2026

Uncertainties in long-term ensemble estimates of contextual evapotranspiration over southern France

Samuel Mwangi, Albert Olioso, Jordi Etchanchu, Kanishka Mallick, Aolin Jia, Jérôme Demarty, Nesrine Farhani, Emmanuelle Sarrazin, Philippe Gamet, Jean-Louis Roujean, and Gilles Boulet

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Cited articles

Allies, A., Demarty, J., Olioso, A., Moussa, I. B., Issoufou, H. B. A., Velluet, C., Bahir, M., Maïnassara, I., Oï, M., Chazarin, J. P., and Cappelaere, B.: Evapotranspiration estimation in the sahel using a new ensemble-contextual method, Remote Sens., 12, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs12030380, 2020. 
Allies, A., Olioso, A., Cappelaere, B., Boulet, G., Etchanchu, J., Barral, H., Bouzou Moussa, I., Chazarin, J.-P., Delogu, E., Issoufou, H. B.-A., Mainassara, I., Oï, M., and Demarty, J.: A remote sensing data fusion method for continuous daily evapotranspiration mapping at kilometric scale in Sahelian areas, J. Hydrol., 607, 127504, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.127504, 2022. 
Bonett, D. G.: Confidence interval for a coefficient of quartile variation, Comput. Stat. Data Anal., 50, 2953–2957, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csda.2005.05.007, 2006. 
Boulet, G., Mougenot, B., Lhomme, J.-P., Fanise, P., Lili-Chabaane, Z., Olioso, A., Bahir, M., Rivalland, V., Jarlan, L., Merlin, O., Coudert, B., Er-Raki, S., and Lagouarde, J.-P.: The SPARSE model for the prediction of water stress and evapotranspiration components from thermal infra-red data and its evaluation over irrigated and rainfed wheat, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 4653–4672, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4653-2015, 2015. 
Carlson, T.: An Overview of the “Triangle Method” for Estimating Surface Evapotranspiration and Soil Moisture from Satellite Imagery, Sensors, 7, 1612–1629, https://doi.org/10.3390/s7081612, 2007. 
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Short summary
The EVapotranspiration Assessment from SPAce (EVASPA) algorithm that will generate TRISHNA evapotranspiration (TRISHNA ET) products shows good agreement with observations. Analyses conducted on 4 variables used in contextual ET modelling showed that land surface temperature and evaporative fraction methods introduce the largest uncertainty in ensemble estimates, followed by radiation. Soil heat flux methods contribute the least. Robust ET products will require optimizing the sensitive variables.
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