Articles | Volume 30, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-1023-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-1023-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
20 Feb 2026
Research article |
| 20 Feb 2026
| 20 Feb 2026
Uncertainty sources in a large ensemble of hydrological projections: Regional Climate Models and Internal Variability matter
Univ. Grenoble Alpes, INRAE, CNRS, IRD, Grenoble INP, IGE, Grenoble, France
Benoit Hingray
Univ. Grenoble Alpes, INRAE, CNRS, IRD, Grenoble INP, IGE, Grenoble, France
Guillaume Thirel
Université Paris-Saclay, INRAE, UR HYCAR, Antony, France
Univ Toulouse, CNES/IRD/CNRS/INRAE, CESBIO, Toulouse, France
Agnès Ducharne
Sorbonne Université/CNRS/EPHE, METIS-IPSL, Paris, France
Laurent Strohmenger
Université Paris-Saclay, INRAE, UR HYCAR, Antony, France
Lola Corre
CNRM, Météo-France, CNRS, Université de Toulouse, Toulouse, France
Yves Tramblay
UMR Espace Dev (Univ. Montpellier, IRD), Montpellier, France
Jean-Philippe Vidal
UR RiverLy, INRAE, Villeurbanne, France
Jérémie Bonneau
UR RiverLy, INRAE, Villeurbanne, France
INSA Lyon, DEEP, UR 7429, Villeurbanne, France
François Colleoni
UMR RECOVER, INRAE, Aix-Marseille University, Le Tholonet, France
Joël Gailhard
Département Eau Environnement, EDF-DTG, Saint Martin le Vinoux, France
Florence Habets
Geology Laboratory of Ecole Normale Supérieure, Pierre Simon Laplace Research University, CNRS UMR 8538, Paris, France
Frédéric Hendrickx
Département LNHE, EDF-R&D, 78401 Chatou, France
Louis Héraut
UR RiverLy, INRAE, Villeurbanne, France
Peng Huang
Sorbonne Université/CNRS/EPHE, METIS-IPSL, Paris, France
Matthieu Le Lay
Département Eau Environnement, EDF-DTG, Saint Martin le Vinoux, France
Claire Magand
OFB, Direction de la recherche et de l’appui scientifique, Nantes, France
Paola Marson
Météo-France, Direction de la Climatologie et des Services Climatiques, Toulouse, France
Céline Monteil
Département LNHE, EDF-R&D, 78401 Chatou, France
Simon Munier
CNRM, Météo-France, CNRS, Université de Toulouse, Toulouse, France
Alix Reverdy
Univ. Grenoble Alpes, INRAE, CNRS, IRD, Grenoble INP, IGE, Grenoble, France
Jean-Michel Soubeyroux
Météo-France, Direction de la Climatologie et des Services Climatiques, Toulouse, France
Yoann Robin
LSCE, IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Univ. Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
Jean-Pierre Vergnes
BRGM – French Geological Survey, Orléans, France
Mathieu Vrac
LSCE, IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Univ. Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
Eric Sauquet
UR RiverLy, INRAE, Villeurbanne, France
Data sets
Ensemble des fiches incertitudes des modèles hydrologiques de surface du projet Explore2 G. Evin https://doi.org/10.57745/3LP5EN
Ensemble des projections hydrologiques Explore2 du débit É. Sauquet et al. https://doi.org/10.57745/YHMBHC
Uncertainty sources in a large ensemble of hydrological projections: Regional Climate Models and Internal Variability matter G. Evin https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18576224
Short summary
Explore2 provides hydrological projections for 1,735 French catchments. Using QUALYPSO (Quasi-Ergodic Analysis of Climate Projections Using Data Augmentation), this study assesses uncertainties, including internal variability. By the end of the century, low flows are projected to decline in southern France under high emissions, while other indicators remain uncertain. Emission scenarios and regional climate models are key uncertainty sources. Internal variability is often as large as climate-driven changes.
Explore2 provides hydrological projections for 1,735 French catchments. Using QUALYPSO...
