Articles | Volume 29, issue 22
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-6549-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-6549-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
20 Nov 2025
Research article |
| 20 Nov 2025
| 20 Nov 2025
Enhancing physically based and distributed hydrological model calibration through internal state variable constraints
Frédéric Talbot
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Hydrology, Climate and Climate Change Laboratory, École de technologie supérieure, Université du Québec, Montréal, H3C 1K3, Canada
Jean-Daniel Sylvain
Hydrology, Climate and Climate Change Laboratory, École de technologie supérieure, Université du Québec, Montréal, H3C 1K3, Canada
Direction de la recherche forestière, Ministère des Ressources naturelles et des Forêts, Québec, G1P 3W8, Canada
Guillaume Drolet
Direction de la recherche forestière, Ministère des Ressources naturelles et des Forêts, Québec, G1P 3W8, Canada
Annie Poulin
Hydrology, Climate and Climate Change Laboratory, École de technologie supérieure, Université du Québec, Montréal, H3C 1K3, Canada
Richard Arsenault
Hydrology, Climate and Climate Change Laboratory, École de technologie supérieure, Université du Québec, Montréal, H3C 1K3, Canada
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This study explores six methods to improve the ability of long short-term memory (LSTM) neural networks to predict peak streamflows, crucial for flood analysis. By enhancing data inputs and model techniques, the research shows that LSTM models can match or surpass traditional hydrological models in simulating peak flows. Tested on 88 catchments in Quebec, Canada, these methods offer promising strategies for better flood prediction.
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Our study examines how combining climate models impacts future streamflow predictions, crucial for understanding climate change. Comparing six methods across 3,107 North American catchments, we found unequal weighting significantly improves rainfall and temperature projections. However, for streamflow, both equal and unequal weighting perform similarly with bias correction. Our findings underscore the need to carefully select weighting methods and correct biases for accurate climate projections.
Mehrad Rahimpour Asenjan, Francois Brissette, Jean-Luc Martel, and Richard Arsenault
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Climate models are central to climate change impact studies. Some models project a future deemed too hot by many. We looked at how including hot models may skew the result of impact studies. Applied to hydrology, this study shows that hot models do not systematically produce hydrological outliers.
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Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 139–157, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-139-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-139-2023, 2023
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Predicting flow in rivers where no observation records are available is a daunting task. For decades, hydrological models were set up on these gauges, and their parameters were estimated based on the hydrological response of similar or nearby catchments where records exist. New developments in machine learning have now made it possible to estimate flows at ungauged locations more precisely than with hydrological models. This study confirms the performance superiority of machine learning models.
Juliane Mai, Hongren Shen, Bryan A. Tolson, Étienne Gaborit, Richard Arsenault, James R. Craig, Vincent Fortin, Lauren M. Fry, Martin Gauch, Daniel Klotz, Frederik Kratzert, Nicole O'Brien, Daniel G. Princz, Sinan Rasiya Koya, Tirthankar Roy, Frank Seglenieks, Narayan K. Shrestha, André G. T. Temgoua, Vincent Vionnet, and Jonathan W. Waddell
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3537–3572, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3537-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3537-2022, 2022
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Model intercomparison studies are carried out to test various models and compare the quality of their outputs over the same domain. In this study, 13 diverse model setups using the same input data are evaluated over the Great Lakes region. Various model outputs – such as streamflow, evaporation, soil moisture, and amount of snow on the ground – are compared using standardized methods and metrics. The basin-wise model outputs and observations are made available through an interactive website.
Mostafa Tarek, François Brissette, and Richard Arsenault
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3331–3350, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3331-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3331-2021, 2021
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It is not known how much uncertainty the choice of a reference data set may bring to impact studies. This study compares precipitation and temperature data sets to evaluate the uncertainty contribution to the results of climate change studies. Results show that all data sets provide good streamflow simulations over the reference period. The reference data sets also provided uncertainty that was equal to or larger than that related to general circulation models over most of the catchments.
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Short summary
This research explores different modelling approaches within a distributed and physically based hydrological model, emphasizing configurations that integrate groundwater recharge and dynamics. The study demonstrates that precise adjustments in model calibration can enhance the accuracy and representation of hydrological variables, which are crucial for effective water management and climate change adaptation strategies.
This research explores different modelling approaches within a distributed and physically based...
