Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
HESS
Articles | Volume 29, issue 22
Articles | Volume 29, issue 22
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-6333-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-6333-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 29, issue 22
Research article
 | 
17 Nov 2025
Research article |  | 17 Nov 2025

Improving model calibrations in a changing world: controlling for nonstationarity after mega disturbance reduces hydrological uncertainty

Elijah N. Boardman, Gabrielle F. S. Boisramé, Mark S. Wigmosta, Robert K. Shriver, and Adrian A. Harpold

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Short summary
Environmental changes can cause hydrological model biases that vary over time (nonstationarity). We demonstrate a new calibration framework to detect and correct nonstationary streamflow biases after a large wildfire, which reduces predictive uncertainty and constrains parameter equifinality.
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