Can we reliably estimate precipitation with high  resolution during disastrously large floods?

Szturc, Jan; Jurczyk, Anna; Ośródka, Katarzyna; Kurcz, Agnieszka; Szaton, Magdalena; Figurski, Mariusz; Pyrc, Robert

doi:10.5194/hess-29-5405-2025

Articles | Volume 29, issue 20

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-5405-2025

© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-5405-2025

© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 29, issue 20

Research article

|

21 Oct 2025

Research article |

| 21 Oct 2025

Can we reliably estimate precipitation with high resolution during disastrously large floods?

Jan Szturc, Anna Jurczyk, Katarzyna Ośródka, Agnieszka Kurcz, Magdalena Szaton, Mariusz Figurski, and Robert Pyrc

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Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
May 2025	164	30	6	200
Jun 2025	104	36	8	148
Jul 2025	170	56	12	238
Aug 2025	316	28	16	360
Sep 2025	1,098	26	4	1,128
Oct 2025	299	71	15	385
Nov 2025	168	69	12	249
Dec 2025	220	98	17	335
Jan 2026	149	74	21	244
Feb 2026	177	68	14	259
Mar 2026	159	172	21	352
Apr 2026	139	141	6	286
May 2026	71	84	6	161
Jun 2026	13	18	0	31
Jul 2026	43	35	5	83
Aug 2026	57	46	11	114
Sep 2026	163	116	49	328
Oct 2026	149	122	28	299
Nov 2026	43	31	7	81

Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 19 May 2025)

Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
May 2025	164	30	6	200
Jun 2025	104	36	8	148
Jul 2025	170	56	12	238
Aug 2025	316	28	16	360
Sep 2025	1,098	26	4	1,128
Oct 2025	299	71	15	385
Nov 2025	168	69	12	249
Dec 2025	220	98	17	335
Jan 2026	149	74	21	244
Feb 2026	177	68	14	259
Mar 2026	159	172	21	352
Apr 2026	139	141	6	286
May 2026	71	84	6	161
Jun 2026	13	18	0	31
Jul 2026	43	35	5	83
Aug 2026	57	46	11	114
Sep 2026	163	116	49	328
Oct 2026	149	122	28	299
Nov 2026	43	31	7	81

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Total article views: 5,281 (including HTML, PDF, and XML) Thereof 5,162 with geography defined and 119 with unknown origin.

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Short summary

During the flooding of the Odra River in September 2024, daily rainfall exceeded 200 mm. The reliability of high-resolution rainfall estimates available in real time was assessed: rain gauges, radars, satellites, unconventional, and multi-source, and also reanalyses. Rain gauges, adjusted radar, and multi-source estimates showed the highest accuracy, with unconventional methods slightly lower. Numerical weather prediction models still offered reasonable reliability, but satellite estimates were less effective.