Can we reliably estimate precipitation with high  resolution during disastrously large floods?

Szturc, Jan; Jurczyk, Anna; Ośródka, Katarzyna; Kurcz, Agnieszka; Szaton, Magdalena; Figurski, Mariusz; Pyrc, Robert

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-5405-2025

Articles | Volume 29, issue 20

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-5405-2025

© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-5405-2025

© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 29, issue 20

Research article

|

21 Oct 2025

Research article |

| 21 Oct 2025

Can we reliably estimate precipitation with high resolution during disastrously large floods?

Jan Szturc, Anna Jurczyk, Katarzyna Ośródka, Agnieszka Kurcz, Magdalena Szaton, Mariusz Figurski, and Robert Pyrc

Data sets

ERA5 hourly data on single levels from 1940 to present ECMWF https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/datasets/reanalysis-era5-single-levels

GPM IMERG Final Precipitation L3 Half Hourly 0.1 degree x 0.1 degree V07 (GPM_3IMERGHH) NASA https://doi.org/10.5067/GPM/IMERG/3B-HH/07

Short summary

During the flooding of the Odra River in September 2024, daily rainfall exceeded 200 mm. The reliability of high-resolution rainfall estimates available in real time was assessed: rain gauges, radars, satellites, unconventional, and multi-source, and also reanalyses. Rain gauges, adjusted radar, and multi-source estimates showed the highest accuracy, with unconventional methods slightly lower. Numerical weather prediction models still offered reasonable reliability, but satellite estimates were less effective.