Articles | Volume 29, issue 19
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-5121-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-5121-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
13 Oct 2025
Research article |
| 13 Oct 2025
| 13 Oct 2025
Climatic, topographic, and groundwater controls on runoff response to precipitation: evidence from a large-sample data set
Zahra Eslami
Department of Environmental Systems Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Hansjörg Seybold
Department of Environmental Systems Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Department of Environmental Systems Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Birmensdorf, Switzerland
Department of Earth and Planetary Science, University of California, Berkeley, CA, USA
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Huibin Gao, Laurent Pfister, and James W. Kirchner
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 6529–6547, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-6529-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-6529-2025, 2025
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Some streams respond to rainfall with flow that peaks twice: a sharp first peak followed by a broad second peak. We analyzed data from a catchment in Luxembourg to better understand the processes behind this phenomenon. Our results show that the first peak is mostly driven directly by rainfall, and the second peak is mostly driven by rain that infiltrates to groundwater. We also show that the relative importance of these two processes depends on how wet the landscape is before the rain falls.
Quentin Duchemin, Maria Grazia Zanoni, Marius G. Floriancic, Hansjörg Seybold, Guillaume Obozinski, James W. Kirchner, and Paolo Benettin
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 8663–8678, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-8663-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-8663-2025, 2025
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We introduce GAMCR (Generalized Additive Models for Catchment Responses), a data-driven model that estimates how catchments respond to individual precipitation events. We validate GAMCR on synthetic data and demonstrate its ability to investigate the characteristic runoff responses from real-world hydrologic series. GAMCR provides new data-driven opportunities to understand and compare hydrological behavior across different catchments.
Cansu Culha, Sarah Godsey, Shawn Chartrand, Melissa Lafreniere, James McNamara, and James Kirchner
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4275, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4275, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS).
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We study how Arctic rivers respond to rainfall in a warming climate. We show that runoff response can increase more than 5x under wetter conditions, and Active Layer Detachments amplify water and material runoff response to rainfall. Increasing subsurface storage can reduce runoff sensitivity to rainfall. Our results inform the flashiness of rainfall-runoff predictions based on expected weather and erosion conditions.
Julia L. A. Knapp, Wouter R. Berghuijs, Marius G. Floriancic, and James W. Kirchner
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 3673–3685, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-3673-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-3673-2025, 2025
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This study explores how streams react to rain and how water travels through the landscape to reach them, two processes rarely studied together. Using detailed data from two temperate areas, we show that streams respond to rain much faster than rainwater travels to them. Wetter conditions lead to stronger runoff by releasing older stored water, while heavy rainfall moves newer rainwater to streams faster. These findings offer new insights into how water moves through the environment.
Zhuoyi Tu, Taihua Wang, Juntai Han, Hansjörg Seybold, Shaozhen Liu, Cansu Culha, Yuting Yang, and James W. Kirchner
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3018, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3018, 2025
Preprint archived
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This study provides the first event-scale observational evidence that runoff sensitivity to precipitation decreases significantly in degrading permafrost regions of the Tibetan Plateau. Data-driven analysis reveals that permafrost thaw enhances infiltration and subsurface storage, reducing peak runoff and runoff coefficients, especially during heavy rainfall. These results are important for drought and flood risk management under climate change.
Guilhem Türk, Christoph J. Gey, Bernd R. Schöne, Marius G. Floriancic, James W. Kirchner, Loic Leonard, Laurent Gourdol, Richard Keim, and Laurent Pfister
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1530, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1530, 2025
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How landscape features affect water storage and release in catchments remains poorly understood. Here we used water stable isotopes in 12 streams to assess the fraction of precipitation reaching streamflow in less than 2 weeks. More recent precipitation was found when streamflow was high and the fraction was linked to the geology (i.e. high when impermeable, low when permeable). Such information is key for better anticipating streamflow responses to a changing climate.
James W. Kirchner
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4427–4454, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4427-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4427-2024, 2024
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Here, I present a new way to quantify how streamflow responds to rainfall across a range of timescales. This approach can estimate how different rainfall intensities affect streamflow. It can also quantify how runoff response to rainfall varies, depending on how wet the landscape already is before the rain falls. This may help us to understand processes and landscape properties that regulate streamflow and to assess the susceptibility of different landscapes to flooding.
Marius G. Floriancic, Scott T. Allen, and James W. Kirchner
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4295–4308, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4295-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4295-2024, 2024
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We use a 3-year time series of tracer data of streamflow and soils to show how water moves through the subsurface to become streamflow. Less than 50% of soil water consists of rainfall from the last 3 weeks. Most annual streamflow is older than 3 months, and waters in deep subsurface layers are even older; thus deep layers are not the only source of streamflow. After wet periods more rainfall was found in the subsurface and the stream, suggesting that water moves quicker through wet landscapes.
Marius G. Floriancic, Michael P. Stockinger, James W. Kirchner, and Christine Stumpp
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3675–3694, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3675-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3675-2024, 2024
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The Alps are a key water resource for central Europe, providing water for drinking, agriculture, and hydropower production. To assess water availability in streams, we need to understand how much streamflow is derived from old water stored in the subsurface versus more recent precipitation. We use tracer data from 32 Alpine streams and statistical tools to assess how much recent precipitation can be found in Alpine rivers and how this amount is related to catchment properties and climate.
Shaozhen Liu, Ilja van Meerveld, Yali Zhao, Yunqiang Wang, and James W. Kirchner
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 205–216, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-205-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-205-2024, 2024
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We study the seasonal and spatial patterns of soil moisture in 0–500 cm soil using 89 monitoring sites in a loess catchment with monsoonal climate. Soil moisture is highest during the months of least precipitation and vice versa. Soil moisture patterns at the hillslope scale are dominated by the aspect-controlled evapotranspiration variations (a local control), not by the hillslope convergence-controlled downslope flow (a nonlocal control), under both dry and wet conditions.
Tobias Nicollier, Gilles Antoniazza, Lorenz Ammann, Dieter Rickenmann, and James W. Kirchner
Earth Surf. Dynam., 10, 929–951, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-10-929-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-10-929-2022, 2022
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Monitoring sediment transport is relevant for flood safety and river restoration. However, the spatial and temporal variability of sediment transport processes makes their prediction challenging. We investigate the feasibility of a general calibration relationship between sediment transport rates and the impact signals recorded by metal plates installed in the channel bed. We present a new calibration method based on flume experiments and apply it to an extensive dataset of field measurements.
Sebastian A. Krogh, Lucia Scaff, James W. Kirchner, Beatrice Gordon, Gary Sterle, and Adrian Harpold
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3393–3417, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3393-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3393-2022, 2022
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We present a new way to detect snowmelt using daily cycles in streamflow driven by solar radiation. Results show that warmer sites have earlier and more intermittent snowmelt than colder sites, and the timing of early snowmelt events is strongly correlated with the timing of streamflow volume. A space-for-time substitution shows greater sensitivity of streamflow timing to climate change in colder rather than in warmer places, which is then contrasted with land surface simulations.
Nikos Theodoratos and James W. Kirchner
Earth Surf. Dynam., 9, 1545–1561, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-9-1545-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-9-1545-2021, 2021
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We examine stream-power incision and linear diffusion landscape evolution models with and without incision thresholds. We present a steady-state relationship between curvature and the steepness index, which plots as a straight line. We view this line as a counterpart to the slope–area relationship for the case of landscapes with hillslope diffusion. We show that simple shifts and rotations of this line graphically express the topographic response of landscapes to changes in model parameters.
Scott T. Allen and James W. Kirchner
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-683, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-683, 2021
Revised manuscript not accepted
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Extracting water from plant stems can introduce analytical errors in isotope analyses. We demonstrate that sensitivities to suspected errors can be evaluated and that conclusions drawn from extracted plant water isotope ratios are neither generally valid nor generally invalid. Ultimately, imperfect measurements of plant and soil water isotope ratios can continue to support useful inferences if study designs are appropriately matched to their likely biases and uncertainties.
Jana von Freyberg, Julia L. A. Knapp, Andrea Rücker, Bjørn Studer, and James W. Kirchner
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5821–5834, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5821-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5821-2020, 2020
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Automated water samplers are often used to collect precipitation and streamwater samples for subsequent isotope analysis, but the isotopic signal of these samples may be altered due to evaporative fractionation occurring during the storage inside the autosamplers in the field. In this article we present and evaluate a cost-efficient modification to the Teledyne ISCO automated water sampler that prevents isotopic enrichment through evaporative fractionation of the water samples.
Joost Buitink, Lieke A. Melsen, James W. Kirchner, and Adriaan J. Teuling
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 6093–6110, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-6093-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-6093-2020, 2020
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This paper presents a new distributed hydrological model: the distributed simple dynamical systems (dS2) model. The model is built with a focus on computational efficiency and is therefore able to simulate basins at high spatial and temporal resolution at a low computational cost. Despite the simplicity of the model concept, it is able to correctly simulate discharge in both small and mesoscale basins.
James W. Kirchner and Julia L. A. Knapp
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5539–5558, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5539-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5539-2020, 2020
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Ensemble hydrograph separation is a powerful new tool for measuring the age distribution of streamwater. However, the calculations are complex and may be difficult for researchers to implement on their own. Here we present scripts that perform these calculations in either MATLAB or R so that researchers do not need to write their own codes. We explain how these scripts work and how to use them. We demonstrate several potential applications using a synthetic catchment data set.
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Short summary
We used a new method to measure how streamflow responds to precipitation across a network of watersheds in Iran. Our analysis shows that streamflow is more sensitive to precipitation when groundwater levels are shallower, climates are more humid, topography is steeper, and drainage basins are smaller. These results are a step toward more sustainable water resource management and more effective flood risk mitigation.
We used a new method to measure how streamflow responds to precipitation across a network of...
