Articles | Volume 29, issue 19
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-4811-2025
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-4811-2025
Research article
 | 
30 Sep 2025
Research article |  | 30 Sep 2025

Statistical estimation of probable maximum precipitation

Anne Martin, Élyse Fournier, and Jonathan Jalbert

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Cited articles

Beauchamp, J., Leconte, R., Trudel, M., and Brissette, F.: Estimation of the summer-fall PMP and PMF of a northern watershed under a changed climate, Water Resour. Res., 49, https://doi.org/10.1002/wrcr.20336, 2013. a, b, c, d
Ben Alaya, M. A., Zwiers, F., and Zhang, X.: Probable maximum precipitation: Its estimation and uncertainty quantification using bivariate extreme value analysis, J. Hydrometeorol., 19, 679–694, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-17-0110.1, 2018. a, b, c, d, e
Ben Alaya, M. A., Zwiers, F. W., and Zhang, X.: A bivariate approach to estimating the probability of very extreme precipitation events, Weather and Climate Extremes, 30, 100290, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2020.100290, 2020a. a, b
Ben Alaya, M. A., Zwiers, F. W., and Zhang, X.: Probable maximum precipitation in a warming climate over North America in CanRCM4 and CRCM5, Climatic Change, 158, 611–629, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-019-02591-7, 2020b. a, b
CEHQ and SNC-Lavalin: Estimation de conditions hydrométéorologiques conduisant aux crues maximales probables (CMP) au Québec: Rapport final, Tech. Rep. 014713-1000-40RT-001-00, Ministère de l'Environnement et de la Lutte contre les changements climatiques, 2004. a
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This paper presents a new statistical method to estimate probable maximum precipitation (PMP), addressing flaws in traditional approaches. It accounts for uncertainty using the Pearson Type-I distribution. Applied to two Québec stations, it provides more objective PMP estimates. Challenges remain due to short-tailed models applied to heavy-tailed precipitation. Best practice recommendations are also provided for estimating PMP.
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