Articles | Volume 29, issue 19
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-4811-2025
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-4811-2025
Research article
 | 
30 Sep 2025
Research article |  | 30 Sep 2025

Statistical estimation of probable maximum precipitation

Anne Martin, Élyse Fournier, and Jonathan Jalbert

Data sets

JuliaExtremes/PMP.jl, v0.1.0 (v0.1.1) A. Martin and J. Jalbert https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17078642

Model code and software

JuliaExtremes/PMP.jl, v0.1.0 (v0.1.1) A. Martin and J. Jalbert https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17078642

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Short summary
This paper presents a new statistical method to estimate probable maximum precipitation (PMP), addressing flaws in traditional approaches. It accounts for uncertainty using the Pearson Type-I distribution. Applied to two Québec stations, it provides more objective PMP estimates. Challenges remain due to short-tailed models applied to heavy-tailed precipitation. Best practice recommendations are also provided for estimating PMP.
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