Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
HESS
Articles | Volume 29, issue 19
Articles | Volume 29, issue 19
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-4811-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-4811-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 29, issue 19
Research article
 | 
30 Sep 2025
Research article |  | 30 Sep 2025

Statistical estimation of probable maximum precipitation

Anne Martin, Élyse Fournier, and Jonathan Jalbert

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Short summary
This paper presents a new statistical method to estimate probable maximum precipitation (PMP), addressing flaws in traditional approaches. It accounts for uncertainty using the Pearson Type-I distribution. Applied to two Québec stations, it provides more objective PMP estimates. Challenges remain due to short-tailed models applied to heavy-tailed precipitation. Best practice recommendations are also provided for estimating PMP.
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