Articles | Volume 29, issue 18
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-4689-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-4689-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
29 Sep 2025
Research article |
| 29 Sep 2025
| 29 Sep 2025
High-resolution downscaled CMIP6 drought projections for Australia
Climate Projections and Services, Queensland Treasury, Queensland Government, Brisbane, QLD, Australia
School of The Environment, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD, Australia
Ralph Trancoso
Climate Projections and Services, Queensland Treasury, Queensland Government, Brisbane, QLD, Australia
School of The Environment, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD, Australia
Jozef Syktus
School of The Environment, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD, Australia
Sarah Chapman
Climate Projections and Services, Queensland Treasury, Queensland Government, Brisbane, QLD, Australia
School of The Environment, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD, Australia
Nathan Toombs
Climate Projections and Services, Queensland Treasury, Queensland Government, Brisbane, QLD, Australia
Hong Zhang
Climate Projections and Services, Queensland Treasury, Queensland Government, Brisbane, QLD, Australia
Shaoxiu Ma
Climate Projections and Services, Queensland Treasury, Queensland Government, Brisbane, QLD, Australia
Ryan McGloin
Climate Projections and Services, Queensland Treasury, Queensland Government, Brisbane, QLD, Australia
Related authors
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Hong Zhang, Sarah Chapman, Ralph Trancoso, Rohan Eccles, Jozef Syktus, and Nathan Toombs
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-498, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-498, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we evaluate the performances of observation-based and climate model-based evapotranspiration estimations and project future changes for evapotranspiration in Australia. Our results show that climate models can provide reasonably accurate estimations, compared to observation-based estimations. This study offers new insights into future water loss and demand changes in Australia with implications for agriculture production, water security, and environmental management.
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Short summary
Rainfall and evaporation are two key variables influencing when droughts occur and their severity. We use the latest climate simulations for Australia to see how changes to rainfall and evaporation influence future droughts for Australia and show increases are likely over most of Australia, especially in the south. Increases in evaporation are shown to be larger than changes to rainfall over most of the continent. We show that keeping emissions to lower levels can work to mitigate these impacts.
Rainfall and evaporation are two key variables influencing when droughts occur and their...
