Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
HESS
Articles | Volume 29, issue 2
Articles | Volume 29, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-447-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-447-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 29, issue 2
Research article
 | 
23 Jan 2025
Research article |  | 23 Jan 2025

Heavy-tailed flood peak distributions: what is the effect of the spatial variability of rainfall and runoff generation?

Elena Macdonald, Bruno Merz, Viet Dung Nguyen, and Sergiy Vorogushyn

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Short summary
Flood peak distributions indicate how likely the occurrence of an extreme flood is at a certain river. If the distribution has a so-called heavy tail, extreme floods are more likely than might be anticipated. We find heavier tails in small catchments compared to large catchments, and spatially variable rainfall leads to a lower occurrence probability of extreme floods. Spatially variable runoff does not show effects. The results can improve estimations of probabilities of extreme floods.
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