Articles | Volume 29, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1201-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1201-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Are dependencies of extreme rainfall on humidity more reliable in convection-permitting climate models?
Geert Lenderink
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
R&D Weather and Climate, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, the Netherlands
Nikolina Ban
Department of Atmospheric and Cryospheric Sciences, University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria
Erwan Brisson
Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques (CNRM), Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France
Ségolène Berthou
Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK
Virginia Edith Cortés-Hernández
Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques (CNRM), Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France
Elizabeth Kendon
Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK
Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
Hayley J. Fowler
School of Engineering and Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK
Hylke de Vries
R&D Weather and Climate, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, the Netherlands
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Cited
13 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Dynamical adjustment reveals spatial patterns of wetting and drying in European winter precipitation J. Carruthers et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae198b
- CDSim: A Synthetic Climate Data Simulation Framework for Temperature and Rainfall Modelling in R I. Osei et al. https://doi.org/10.5334/jors.666
- Invited perspectives: Thunderstorm intensification from mountains to plains J. Fischer et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2629-2025
- Threefold increase in most intense South Atlantic convergence zone events by 2100 in convection-permitting simulation M. Zilli et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ade16e
- Uncertain dynamic response of mid-latitude winter precipitation L. Gu et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-026-10474-y
- Investigating the robustness of extreme precipitation super-resolution across climates L. Largeau et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2026.100885
- Convection-permitting analysis of sub-daily extreme rainfall events in the Awash River Basin S. Hailemariam & P. Coulibaly https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103788
- A pseudo global warming based system to study how climate change affects high impact rainfall events G. Lenderink et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2025.100781
- Improving Real-Time Flood Forecasting: Probabilistic Validation of Assimilated Remotely-Sensed Soil Moisture Data S. Soltani et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-025-00726-8
- How to Develop Comprehensive Explanatory and Confirmatory Techniques for the Characteristics of Global Climate Data? Insights From Six Stations of Humidity Data for the Period 1981 to 2022 Z. Al-Hemyari et al. https://doi.org/10.1177/21582440251368939
- Spatial disaggregation of coarse-scaled gridded rainfall data using open-source earth observation in a semi-arid region for water resources management K. Karan et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asr.2025.06.027
- Evaluation and projection of extreme rainfall from a large ensemble of high–resolution regional climate models in Australia L. Jayaweera et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2025.100818
- Agroforestry protects arable crops from climate shock during critical early-season phenological stages C. Tosh et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13593-026-01129-3
13 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Dynamical adjustment reveals spatial patterns of wetting and drying in European winter precipitation J. Carruthers et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae198b
- CDSim: A Synthetic Climate Data Simulation Framework for Temperature and Rainfall Modelling in R I. Osei et al. https://doi.org/10.5334/jors.666
- Invited perspectives: Thunderstorm intensification from mountains to plains J. Fischer et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2629-2025
- Threefold increase in most intense South Atlantic convergence zone events by 2100 in convection-permitting simulation M. Zilli et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ade16e
- Uncertain dynamic response of mid-latitude winter precipitation L. Gu et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-026-10474-y
- Investigating the robustness of extreme precipitation super-resolution across climates L. Largeau et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2026.100885
- Convection-permitting analysis of sub-daily extreme rainfall events in the Awash River Basin S. Hailemariam & P. Coulibaly https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103788
- A pseudo global warming based system to study how climate change affects high impact rainfall events G. Lenderink et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2025.100781
- Improving Real-Time Flood Forecasting: Probabilistic Validation of Assimilated Remotely-Sensed Soil Moisture Data S. Soltani et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-025-00726-8
- How to Develop Comprehensive Explanatory and Confirmatory Techniques for the Characteristics of Global Climate Data? Insights From Six Stations of Humidity Data for the Period 1981 to 2022 Z. Al-Hemyari et al. https://doi.org/10.1177/21582440251368939
- Spatial disaggregation of coarse-scaled gridded rainfall data using open-source earth observation in a semi-arid region for water resources management K. Karan et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asr.2025.06.027
- Evaluation and projection of extreme rainfall from a large ensemble of high–resolution regional climate models in Australia L. Jayaweera et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2025.100818
- Agroforestry protects arable crops from climate shock during critical early-season phenological stages C. Tosh et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13593-026-01129-3
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 05 Aug 2026
Short summary
Future extreme rainfall events are influenced by changes in both absolute and relative humidity. The impact of increasing absolute humidity is reasonably well understood, but the role of relative humidity decreases over land remains largely unknown. Using hourly observations from France and the Netherlands, we find that lower relative humidity generally leads to more intense rainfall extremes. This relation is only captured well in recently developed convection-permitting climate models.
Future extreme rainfall events are influenced by changes in both absolute and relative humidity....