Articles | Volume 28, issue 16
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3897-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3897-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
26 Aug 2024
Research article |
| 26 Aug 2024
| 26 Aug 2024
Projected future changes in the cryosphere and hydrology of a mountainous catchment in the upper Heihe River, China
Zehua Chang
Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science (Ministry of Education of China), School of Geographical Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai, China
Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science (Ministry of Education of China), School of Geographical Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai, China
Leilei Yong
Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science (Ministry of Education of China), School of Geographical Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai, China
Kang Wang
Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science (Ministry of Education of China), School of Geographical Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai, China
Rensheng Chen
Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou, China
Chuntan Han
Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou, China
Otgonbayar Demberel
Department of Geography and Geology, Khovd branch of National University of Mongolia, Khovd, 84140, Mongolia
Batsuren Dorjsuren
Department of Environment and Forest Engineering, National University of Mongolia, Ulaanbaatar, 210646, Mongolia
Shugui Hou
School of Oceanography (SOO), Shanghai Jiao Tong University (SJTU), No. 1954 Huashan Road, Xuhui District, Shanghai, China
Zheng Duan
Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, Sölvegatan 12, 223 62 Lund, Sweden
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Cited
12 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Refining snow-streamflow dynamics in a Tibetan Plateau basin by incorporating snow depth and topography L. Tian et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133057
- High-resolution modeling of glacier meltwater contributions to lake water level fluctuations in the Baishui River Glacier No.1 basin S. Shah & S. Ai https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isci.2025.113321
- Projected decline in glacier runoff contribution during drought periods across the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau Y. Wang et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.134583
- Reducing hydrological uncertainty in large mountainous basins: the role of isotope, snow cover, and glacier dynamics in capturing streamflow seasonality D. Avesani et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-5755-2025
- Isotope-aided frozen soil hydrological modeling reveals freeze–thaw controls on runoff partitioning in a mountainous catchment of the upper Heihe River, China L. Yong et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2026.110272
- Study on the Temporal Variability and Influencing Factors of Baseflow in High-Latitude Cold Region Rivers: A Case Study of the Upper Emuer River M. Jia et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/w17081132
- Quantifying the uncertainty contribution in runoff projection and the time scale effects Z. Li et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135067
- Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) Based Runoff Simulation and Short-Term Forecasting for Alpine Regions: A Case Study in the Upper Jinsha River Basin F. Zhang et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/w17213117
- Can snow-free breaks control soil thermal dynamics in the cold season over the warming northern Eurasia? X. Zhong et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110729
- Hydrological response to glacier peak water in the largest inland river basin of China H. Lyu et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135695
- Positive feedback of forest cover in maintaining hydrological equilibrium under recent climate change projections and land use change scenarios N. Kumar et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jastp.2026.106880
- Warming-driven runoff increase and shifted seasonality in the glacierized Hotan Basin in Central Asia X. Xu et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105579
12 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Refining snow-streamflow dynamics in a Tibetan Plateau basin by incorporating snow depth and topography L. Tian et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133057
- High-resolution modeling of glacier meltwater contributions to lake water level fluctuations in the Baishui River Glacier No.1 basin S. Shah & S. Ai https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isci.2025.113321
- Projected decline in glacier runoff contribution during drought periods across the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau Y. Wang et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.134583
- Reducing hydrological uncertainty in large mountainous basins: the role of isotope, snow cover, and glacier dynamics in capturing streamflow seasonality D. Avesani et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-5755-2025
- Isotope-aided frozen soil hydrological modeling reveals freeze–thaw controls on runoff partitioning in a mountainous catchment of the upper Heihe River, China L. Yong et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2026.110272
- Study on the Temporal Variability and Influencing Factors of Baseflow in High-Latitude Cold Region Rivers: A Case Study of the Upper Emuer River M. Jia et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/w17081132
- Quantifying the uncertainty contribution in runoff projection and the time scale effects Z. Li et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135067
- Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) Based Runoff Simulation and Short-Term Forecasting for Alpine Regions: A Case Study in the Upper Jinsha River Basin F. Zhang et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/w17213117
- Can snow-free breaks control soil thermal dynamics in the cold season over the warming northern Eurasia? X. Zhong et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110729
- Hydrological response to glacier peak water in the largest inland river basin of China H. Lyu et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135695
- Positive feedback of forest cover in maintaining hydrological equilibrium under recent climate change projections and land use change scenarios N. Kumar et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jastp.2026.106880
- Warming-driven runoff increase and shifted seasonality in the glacierized Hotan Basin in Central Asia X. Xu et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105579
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 29 Jul 2026
Short summary
An integrated cryospheric–hydrologic model, FLEX-Cryo, was developed that considers glaciers, snow cover, and frozen soil and their dynamic impacts on hydrology. We utilized it to simulate future changes in cryosphere and hydrology in the Hulu catchment. Our projections showed the two glaciers will melt completely around 2050, snow cover will reduce, and permafrost will degrade. For hydrology, runoff will decrease after the glacier has melted, and permafrost degradation will increase baseflow.
An integrated cryospheric–hydrologic model, FLEX-Cryo, was developed that considers glaciers,...
