Articles | Volume 28, issue 13
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2969-2024
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2969-2024
Research article
 | 
08 Jul 2024
Research article |  | 08 Jul 2024

Assessing the impact of climate change on high return levels of peak flows in Bavaria applying the CRCM5 large ensemble

Florian Willkofer, Raul R. Wood, and Ralf Ludwig

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Cited articles

Aalbers, E. E., Lenderink, G., van Meijgaard, E., and van den Hurk, B. J. J. M.: Local-scale changes in mean and heavy precipitation in Western Europe, climate change or internal variability?, Clim. Dynam., 50, 4745–4766, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3901-9, 2018. 
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Bertola, M., Viglione, A., Lun, D., Hall, J., and Blöschl, G.: Flood trends in Europe: are changes in small and big floods different?, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1805–1822, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1805-2020, 2020. 
Bezak, N., Brilly, M., and Šraj, M.: Comparison between the peaks-over-threshold method and the annual maximum method for flood frequency analysis, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 59, 959–977, https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2013.831174, 2014. 
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Short summary
Severe flood events pose a threat to riverine areas, yet robust estimates of the dynamics of these events in the future due to climate change are rarely available. Hence, this study uses data from a regional climate model, SMILE, to drive a high-resolution hydrological model for 98 catchments of hydrological Bavaria and exploits the large database to derive robust values for the 100-year flood events. Results indicate an increase in frequency and intensity for most catchments in the future.