Articles | Volume 28, issue 13
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2969-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2969-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
08 Jul 2024
Research article |
| 08 Jul 2024
| 08 Jul 2024
Assessing the impact of climate change on high return levels of peak flows in Bavaria applying the CRCM5 large ensemble
Florian Willkofer
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Geography, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, 80333 Munich, Germany
Raul R. Wood
Department of Geography, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, 80333 Munich, Germany
WSL Instistute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, 7260 Davos Dorf, Switzerland
Climate Change, Extremes and Natural Hazards in Alpine Regions Research Center CERC, 7260 Davos Dorf, Switzerland
Ralf Ludwig
Department of Geography, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, 80333 Munich, Germany
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Cited
16 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Current Trends and Future Scenarios: Modeling Maximum River Discharge in the Zhaiyk–Caspian Basin (Kazakhstan) Under a Changing Climate S. Alimkulov et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology12110278
- Integrated risk analysis for urban flooding under changing climates W. Yang et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rineng.2024.103243
- Retrieving snow water equivalent from GRACE/GRACE-FO terrestrial water storage anomalies using modified spectral combination theory F. Fatolazadeh et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133754
- Leveraging Coupled Hydrodynamic with Data-Driven GeoAI Models for Advancing Systemic Compound Flood Risk Evaluation in Coastal Urban Areas T. Atmaja et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11831-025-10394-6
- 4-6 MAYIS 2024 CİZRE SELİNİN NEDENLERİ: İKLİM DEĞİŞİKLİĞİ, YAĞIŞ DİNAMİKLERİ VE KENTSEL KIRILGANLIK S. Sabancı https://doi.org/10.17753/sosekev.1791369
- Rethinking future flood hazard: Hourly data challenge daily flood projections in Alpine catchments P. Astagneau et al. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aed6012
- Hydroclimatic Variability of the Grey River Basin (Chilean Patagonia): Trends and Relationship with Large-Scale Climatic Phenomena P. Fuentes-Aguilera et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/w17131895
- Capturing Aleatoric Uncertainty in Climate Models C. Gruber et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/env.70108
- Trends and Drivers of Flood Occurrence in Germany: A Time Series Analysis of Temperature, Precipitation, and River Discharge M. Alobid et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/w16182589
- Hybrid models generalize better to warmer climate conditions than process-based and purely data-driven models J. Bohl et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-4667-2026
- Using a Jump-Diffusion Process to Estimate Return-Period Flows M. Lefebvre https://doi.org/10.37394/23206.2026.25.35
- Impact of bias adjustment strategy on ensemble projections of hydrological extremes P. Astagneau et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-5695-2025
- Climate change effects on river droughts in Bavaria using a hydrological large ensemble B. Poschlod et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-1165-2026
- Using Sub‐Daily Precipitation for Grid‐Based Hydrological Modelling Across Great Britain: Hourly Model Performance and Flood Impacts Under Climate Change A. Kay https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.70523
- Bridging the gap between users and scientists: challenges of climate service production in a central European case study A. Böhnisch et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-22-111-2026
- Hydrological climate change impact assessment in high latitudes: are bucket-type models up to the task? A. Todorović et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2026.106964
16 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Current Trends and Future Scenarios: Modeling Maximum River Discharge in the Zhaiyk–Caspian Basin (Kazakhstan) Under a Changing Climate S. Alimkulov et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology12110278
- Integrated risk analysis for urban flooding under changing climates W. Yang et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rineng.2024.103243
- Retrieving snow water equivalent from GRACE/GRACE-FO terrestrial water storage anomalies using modified spectral combination theory F. Fatolazadeh et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133754
- Leveraging Coupled Hydrodynamic with Data-Driven GeoAI Models for Advancing Systemic Compound Flood Risk Evaluation in Coastal Urban Areas T. Atmaja et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11831-025-10394-6
- 4-6 MAYIS 2024 CİZRE SELİNİN NEDENLERİ: İKLİM DEĞİŞİKLİĞİ, YAĞIŞ DİNAMİKLERİ VE KENTSEL KIRILGANLIK S. Sabancı https://doi.org/10.17753/sosekev.1791369
- Rethinking future flood hazard: Hourly data challenge daily flood projections in Alpine catchments P. Astagneau et al. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aed6012
- Hydroclimatic Variability of the Grey River Basin (Chilean Patagonia): Trends and Relationship with Large-Scale Climatic Phenomena P. Fuentes-Aguilera et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/w17131895
- Capturing Aleatoric Uncertainty in Climate Models C. Gruber et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/env.70108
- Trends and Drivers of Flood Occurrence in Germany: A Time Series Analysis of Temperature, Precipitation, and River Discharge M. Alobid et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/w16182589
- Hybrid models generalize better to warmer climate conditions than process-based and purely data-driven models J. Bohl et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-4667-2026
- Using a Jump-Diffusion Process to Estimate Return-Period Flows M. Lefebvre https://doi.org/10.37394/23206.2026.25.35
- Impact of bias adjustment strategy on ensemble projections of hydrological extremes P. Astagneau et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-5695-2025
- Climate change effects on river droughts in Bavaria using a hydrological large ensemble B. Poschlod et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-1165-2026
- Using Sub‐Daily Precipitation for Grid‐Based Hydrological Modelling Across Great Britain: Hourly Model Performance and Flood Impacts Under Climate Change A. Kay https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.70523
- Bridging the gap between users and scientists: challenges of climate service production in a central European case study A. Böhnisch et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-22-111-2026
- Hydrological climate change impact assessment in high latitudes: are bucket-type models up to the task? A. Todorović et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2026.106964
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 12 Oct 2026
Short summary
Severe flood events pose a threat to riverine areas, yet robust estimates of the dynamics of these events in the future due to climate change are rarely available. Hence, this study uses data from a regional climate model, SMILE, to drive a high-resolution hydrological model for 98 catchments of hydrological Bavaria and exploits the large database to derive robust values for the 100-year flood events. Results indicate an increase in frequency and intensity for most catchments in the future.
Severe flood events pose a threat to riverine areas, yet robust estimates of the dynamics of...
