Articles | Volume 27, issue 22
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4205-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4205-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
28 Nov 2023
Research article |
| 28 Nov 2023
| 28 Nov 2023
Improving understanding of groundwater flow in an alpine karst system by reconstructing its geologic history using conduit network model ensembles
Chloé Fandel
Geology Department, Carleton College, Northfield, MN 55057, USA
Ty Ferré
Department of Hydrology and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA
François Miville
Centre d'Hydrogéologie et de Géothermie, Université de Neuchâtel, Neuchâtel, 2000, Switzerland
Philippe Renard
Centre d'Hydrogéologie et de Géothermie, Université de Neuchâtel, Neuchâtel, 2000, Switzerland
Nico Goldscheider
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Institut für Angewandte Geowissenschaften, Karlsruher Institut für Technologie, Karlsruhe 76131, Germany
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Andreas Wunsch, Tanja Liesch, and Nico Goldscheider
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2167–2178, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2167-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2167-2024, 2024
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Seasons have a strong influence on groundwater levels, but relationships are complex and partly unknown. Using data from wells in Germany and an explainable machine learning approach, we showed that summer precipitation is the key factor that controls the severeness of a low-water period in fall; high summer temperatures do not per se cause stronger decreases. Preceding winters have only a minor influence on such low-water periods in general.
Guillaume Cinkus, Naomi Mazzilli, Hervé Jourde, Andreas Wunsch, Tanja Liesch, Nataša Ravbar, Zhao Chen, and Nico Goldscheider
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2397–2411, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2397-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2397-2023, 2023
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The Kling–Gupta Efficiency (KGE) is a performance criterion extensively used to evaluate hydrological models. We conduct a critical study on the KGE and its variant to examine counterbalancing errors. Results show that, when assessing a simulation, concurrent over- and underestimation of discharge can lead to an overall higher criterion score without an associated increase in model relevance. We suggest that one carefully choose performance criteria and use scaling factors.
Guillaume Cinkus, Andreas Wunsch, Naomi Mazzilli, Tanja Liesch, Zhao Chen, Nataša Ravbar, Joanna Doummar, Jaime Fernández-Ortega, Juan Antonio Barberá, Bartolomé Andreo, Nico Goldscheider, and Hervé Jourde
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1961–1985, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1961-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1961-2023, 2023
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Numerous modelling approaches can be used for studying karst water resources, which can make it difficult for a stakeholder or researcher to choose the appropriate method. We conduct a comparison of two widely used karst modelling approaches: artificial neural networks (ANNs) and reservoir models. Results show that ANN models are very flexible and seem great for reproducing high flows. Reservoir models can work with relatively short time series and seem to accurately reproduce low flows.
Andreas Wunsch, Tanja Liesch, Guillaume Cinkus, Nataša Ravbar, Zhao Chen, Naomi Mazzilli, Hervé Jourde, and Nico Goldscheider
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2405–2430, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2405-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2405-2022, 2022
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Modeling complex karst water resources is difficult enough, but often there are no or too few climate stations available within or close to the catchment to deliver input data for modeling purposes. We apply image recognition algorithms to time-distributed, spatially gridded meteorological data to simulate karst spring discharge. Our models can also learn the approximate catchment location of a spring independently.
Kim Madsen van't Veen, Ty Paul Andrew Ferré, Bo Vangsø Iversen, and Christen Duus Børgesen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 55–70, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-55-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-55-2022, 2022
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Geophysical instruments are often used in hydrological surveys. A geophysical model that couples electrical conductivity in the subsurface layers with measurements from an electromagnetic induction instrument was combined with a machine learning algorithm. The study reveals that this combination can estimate the identifiability of electrical conductivity in a layered soil and provide insight into the best way to configure the instrument for a specific field site.
Alexis Neven, Valentin Dall'Alba, Przemysław Juda, Julien Straubhaar, and Philippe Renard
The Cryosphere, 15, 5169–5186, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5169-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5169-2021, 2021
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We present and compare different geostatistical methods for underglacial bedrock interpolation. Variogram-based interpolations are compared with a multipoint statistics approach on both test cases and real glaciers. Using the modeled bedrock, the ice volume for the Scex Rouge and Tsanfleuron glaciers (Swiss Alps) was estimated to be 113.9 ± 1.6 million cubic meters. Complex karstic geomorphological features are reproduced and can be used to improve the precision of underglacial flow estimation.
Ravindra Dwivedi, Christopher Eastoe, John F. Knowles, Jennifer McIntosh, Thomas Meixner, Ty P. A. Ferre, Rebecca Minor, Greg Barron-Gafford, Nathan Abramson, Michael Stanley, and Jon Chorover
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-355, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-355, 2021
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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This study applies multiple metrics including the fraction of young water and its discharge sensitivity and mean transit time using young as well as old groundwater age tracers to improve understanding of the dynamic nature of hydrologic flow paths at a sub-humid mountainous site. The results show that the aforementioned metrics yield unique information and they are helpful in understanding the nature of transient flow paths and observable storage volumes that contribute to streamflow.
Markus Merk, Nadine Goeppert, and Nico Goldscheider
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3519–3538, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3519-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3519-2021, 2021
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Soil moisture levels have decreased significantly over the past 2 decades. This decrease is not uniformly distributed over the observation period. The largest changes occur at tipping points during years of extreme drought, after which soil moisture levels reach significantly different alternate stable states. Not only the overall trend in soil moisture is affected, but also the seasonal dynamics.
Alexis Neven, Pradip Kumar Maurya, Anders Vest Christiansen, and Philippe Renard
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 2743–2752, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-2743-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-2743-2021, 2021
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The shallow underground is constituted of sediments that present high spatial variability. This upper layer is the most extensively used for resource exploitation (groundwater, geothermal heat, construction materials, etc.). Understanding and modeling the spatial variability of these deposits is crucial. We present a high-resolution electrical resistivity dataset that covers the upper Aare Valley in Switzerland. These data can help develop methods to characterize these geological formations.
Valentin Dall'Alba, Philippe Renard, Julien Straubhaar, Benoit Issautier, Cédric Duvail, and Yvan Caballero
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4997–5013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4997-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4997-2020, 2020
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Due to climate and population evolution, increased pressure is put on the groundwater resource, which calls for better understanding and models. In this paper, we describe a novel workflow to model the geological heterogeneity of coastal aquifers and apply it to the Roussillon plain (southern France). The main strength of the workflow is its capability to model aquifer heterogeneity when only sparse data are available while honoring the local geological trends and quantifying uncertainty.
Ingo Heidbüchel, Jie Yang, Andreas Musolff, Peter Troch, Ty Ferré, and Jan H. Fleckenstein
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2895–2920, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2895-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2895-2020, 2020
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With the help of a 3-D computer model we examined how long the water of different rain events stays inside small catchments before it is discharged and how the nature of this discharge is controlled by different catchment and climate properties. We found that one can only predict the discharge dynamics when taking into account a combination of catchment and climate properties (i.e., there was not one single most important predictor). Our results can help to manage water pollution events.
Guillaume Pirot, Tipaluck Krityakierne, David Ginsbourger, and Philippe Renard
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 351–369, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-351-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-351-2019, 2019
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To localize the source of a contaminant in the subsurface, based on concentration observations at some wells, we propose to test different possible locations and minimize the misfit between observed and simulated concentrations. We use a global optimization technique that relies on an expected improvement criterion, which allows a good exploration of the parameter space, avoids the trapping of local minima and quickly localizes the source of the contaminant on the presented synthetic cases.
Zhao Chen, Andreas Hartmann, Thorsten Wagener, and Nico Goldscheider
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3807–3823, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3807-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3807-2018, 2018
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This paper investigates potential impacts of climate change on mountainous karst systems. Our study highlights the fast groundwater dynamics in mountainous karst catchments, which make them highly vulnerable to future changing-climate conditions. Additionally, this work presents a novel holistic modeling approach, which can be transferred to similar karst systems for studying the impact of climate change on local karst water resources.
Nikolaj Kruse Christensen, Ty Paul A. Ferre, Gianluca Fiandaca, and Steen Christensen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1321–1337, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1321-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1321-2017, 2017
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This study presents a new method for coupling a 3-D geophysical model with a 3-D groundwater model for improved groundwater model construction and prediction accuracy. The hydrological data consist of 35 hydraulic head measurements and one river discharge measurement, while the geophysical data set consists of 6300 measurement positions. The results demonstrate that the geophysical inversion strategy significantly affects the construction and prediction capability of the groundwater model.
M. Huebsch, F. Grimmeisen, M. Zemann, O. Fenton, K. G. Richards, P. Jordan, A. Sawarieh, P. Blum, and N. Goldscheider
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1589–1598, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1589-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1589-2015, 2015
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Two different in situ spectrophotometers, which were used in the field to determine highly time resolved nitrate-nitrogen (NO3-N) concentrations at two distinct spring discharge sites, are compared: a double and a multiple wavelength spectrophotometer. The objective of the study was to review the hardware options, determine ease of calibration, accuracy, influence of additional substances and to assess positive and negative aspects of the two sensors as well as troubleshooting and trade-offs.
U. Lauber, P. Kotyla, D. Morche, and N. Goldscheider
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 4437–4452, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4437-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4437-2014, 2014
M. Huebsch, O. Fenton, B. Horan, D. Hennessy, K. G. Richards, P. Jordan, N. Goldscheider, C. Butscher, and P. Blum
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 4423–4435, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4423-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4423-2014, 2014
F. Oriani, J. Straubhaar, P. Renard, and G. Mariethoz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3015–3031, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3015-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3015-2014, 2014
U. Lauber, W. Ufrecht, and N. Goldscheider
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 435–445, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-435-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-435-2014, 2014
T. E. Franz, M. Zreda, R. Rosolem, and T. P. A. Ferre
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 453–460, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-453-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-453-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Subject: Groundwater hydrology | Techniques and Approaches: Stochastic approaches
A comprehensive framework for stochastic calibration and sensitivity analysis of large-scale groundwater models
An ensemble-based approach for pumping optimization in an island aquifer considering parameter, observation and climate uncertainty
The effects of rain and evapotranspiration statistics on groundwater recharge estimations for semi-arid environments
Characterization of the highly fractured zone at the Grimsel Test Site based on hydraulic tomography
Influence of low-frequency variability on high and low groundwater levels: example of aquifers in the Paris Basin
Technical note: Using long short-term memory models to fill data gaps in hydrological monitoring networks
Technical note: Discharge response of a confined aquifer with variable thickness to temporal, nonstationary, random recharge processes
Data assimilation with multiple types of observation boreholes via the ensemble Kalman filter embedded within stochastic moment equations
A field evidence model: how to predict transport in heterogeneous aquifers at low investigation level
3D multiple-point statistics simulations of the Roussillon Continental Pliocene aquifer using DeeSse
Technical Note: Improved sampling of behavioral subsurface flow model parameters using active subspaces
Efficient screening of groundwater head monitoring data for anthropogenic effects and measurement errors
Regionalization with hierarchical hydrologic similarity and ex situ data in the context of groundwater recharge estimation at ungauged watersheds
Long-term groundwater recharge rates across India by in situ measurements
Stochastic hydrogeology's biggest hurdles analyzed and its big blind spot
Contributions to uncertainty related to hydrostratigraphic modeling using multiple-point statistics
Recent trends of groundwater temperatures in Austria
Moment-based metrics for global sensitivity analysis of hydrological systems
Multiple-point statistical simulation for hydrogeological models: 3-D training image development and conditioning strategies
Characterizing the spatiotemporal variability of groundwater levels of alluvial aquifers in different settings using drought indices
Testing the use of standardised indices and GRACE satellite data to estimate the European 2015 groundwater drought in near-real time
Modeling 3-D permeability distribution in alluvial fans using facies architecture and geophysical acquisitions
A Bayesian consistent dual ensemble Kalman filter for state-parameter estimation in subsurface hydrology
Technical note: Application of artificial neural networks in groundwater table forecasting – a case study in a Singapore swamp forest
Regional analysis of groundwater droughts using hydrograph classification
Scalable statistics of correlated random variables and extremes applied to deep borehole porosities
Observed groundwater temperature response to recent climate change
The effect of training image and secondary data integration with multiple-point geostatistics in groundwater modelling
Is high-resolution inverse characterization of heterogeneous river bed hydraulic conductivities needed and possible?
Investigation of solute transport in nonstationary unsaturated flow fields
Extended power-law scaling of heavy-tailed random air-permeability fields in fractured and sedimentary rocks
Stochastic analysis of field-scale heat advection in heterogeneous aquifers
Groundwater flow inverse modeling in non-MultiGaussian media: performance assessment of the normal-score Ensemble Kalman Filter
Extended power-law scaling of air permeabilities measured on a block of tuff
Quantifying flow and remediation zone uncertainties for partially opened wells in heterogeneous aquifers
Bayesian approach for three-dimensional aquifer characterization at the Hanford 300 Area
Spectral approach to seawater intrusion in heterogeneous coastal aquifers
Andrea Manzoni, Giovanni Michele Porta, Laura Guadagnini, Alberto Guadagnini, and Monica Riva
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2661–2682, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2661-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2661-2024, 2024
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We introduce a comprehensive methodology that combines multi-objective optimization, global sensitivity analysis (GSA) and 3D groundwater modeling to analyze subsurface flow dynamics across large-scale domains. In this way, we effectively consider the inherent uncertainty associated with subsurface system characterizations and their interactions with surface waterbodies. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed approach by applying it to the largest groundwater system in Italy.
Cécile Coulon, Jeremy T. White, Alexandre Pryet, Laura Gatel, and Jean-Michel Lemieux
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 303–319, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-303-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-303-2024, 2024
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In coastal areas, groundwater managers require information on the risk of well salinization associated with various pumping scenarios. We developed a modeling approach to identify the optimal tradeoff between groundwater pumping and probability of salinization, considering model parameter and historical observation uncertainty as well as uncertainty in sea level and recharge projections. The workflow can be implemented in a wide range of coastal settings.
Tuvia Turkeltaub and Golan Bel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 289–302, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-289-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-289-2023, 2023
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Groundwater is an essential resource affected by climate conditions and anthropogenic activities. Estimations of groundwater recharge under current and future climate conditions require long-term climate records that are scarce. Different methods to synthesize climate data, based on observations, are used to estimate groundwater recharge. In terms of groundwater recharge estimation, the best synthesis method is based on the daily statistics corrected to match the observed monthly statistics.
Lisa Maria Ringel, Mohammadreza Jalali, and Peter Bayer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 6443–6455, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6443-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6443-2022, 2022
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Fractured rocks host a class of aquifers that serve as major freshwater resources worldwide. This work is dedicated to resolving the three-dimensional hydraulic and structural properties of fractured rock. For this purpose, hydraulic tomography experiments at the Grimsel Test Site in Switzerland are utilized, and the discrete fracture network is inverted. The comparison of the inversion results with independent findings from other studies demonstrates the validity of the approach.
Lisa Baulon, Nicolas Massei, Delphine Allier, Matthieu Fournier, and Hélène Bessiere
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2829–2854, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2829-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2829-2022, 2022
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Aquifers often act as low-pass filters, dampening high-frequency (intra-annual) and amplifying low-frequency (LFV, multi-annual to multidecadal) variabilities originating from climate variability. By processing groundwater level signals, we show the key role of LFV in the occurrence of groundwater extremes (GWEs). Results highlight how changes in LFV may impact future GWEs as well as the importance of correct representation of LFV in general circulation model outputs for GWE projection.
Huiying Ren, Erol Cromwell, Ben Kravitz, and Xingyuan Chen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1727–1743, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1727-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1727-2022, 2022
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We used a deep learning method called long short-term memory (LSTM) to fill gaps in data collected by hydrologic monitoring networks. LSTM accounted for correlations in space and time and nonlinear trends in data. Compared to a traditional regression-based time-series method, LSTM performed comparably when filling gaps in data with smooth patterns, while it better captured highly dynamic patterns in data. Capturing such dynamics is critical for understanding dynamic complex system behaviors.
Ching-Min Chang, Chuen-Fa Ni, We-Ci Li, Chi-Ping Lin, and I-Hsien Lee
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2387–2397, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2387-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2387-2021, 2021
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A transfer function to describe the variation in the integrated specific discharge in response to the temporal variation in the rainfall event in the frequency domain is developed. It can be used to quantify the variability in the integrated discharge field induced by the variation in rainfall field or to simulate the discharge response of the system to any varying rainfall input, at any time resolution, using the convolution model.
Chuan-An Xia, Xiaodong Luo, Bill X. Hu, Monica Riva, and Alberto Guadagnini
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1689–1709, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1689-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1689-2021, 2021
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Our study shows that (i) monitoring wells installed with packers provide the (overall) best conductivity estimates; (ii) conductivity estimates anchored on information from partially and fully screened wells are of similar quality; (iii) inflation of the measurement-error covariance matrix can improve conductivity estimates when a simplified flow model is adopted; and (iv) when compared to the MC-based EnKF, the MEs-based EnKF can efficiently and accurately estimate conductivity and head fields.
Alraune Zech, Peter Dietrich, Sabine Attinger, and Georg Teutsch
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1–15, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1-2021, 2021
Valentin Dall'Alba, Philippe Renard, Julien Straubhaar, Benoit Issautier, Cédric Duvail, and Yvan Caballero
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4997–5013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4997-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4997-2020, 2020
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Due to climate and population evolution, increased pressure is put on the groundwater resource, which calls for better understanding and models. In this paper, we describe a novel workflow to model the geological heterogeneity of coastal aquifers and apply it to the Roussillon plain (southern France). The main strength of the workflow is its capability to model aquifer heterogeneity when only sparse data are available while honoring the local geological trends and quantifying uncertainty.
Daniel Erdal and Olaf A. Cirpka
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4567–4574, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4567-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4567-2020, 2020
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Assessing model sensitivities with ensemble-based methods can be prohibitively expensive when large parts of the plausible parameter space result in model simulations with nonrealistic results. In a previous work, we used the method of active subspaces to create a proxy model with the purpose of filtering out such unrealistic runs at low cost. This work details a notable improvement in the efficiency of the original sampling scheme, without loss of accuracy.
Christian Lehr and Gunnar Lischeid
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 501–513, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-501-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-501-2020, 2020
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A screening method for the fast identification of well-specific peculiarities in hydrographs of groundwater head monitoring networks is suggested and tested. The only information required is a set of time series of groundwater head readings all measured at the same instants of time. The results were used to check the data for measurement errors and to identify wells with possible anthropogenic influence.
Ching-Fu Chang and Yoram Rubin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2417–2438, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2417-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2417-2019, 2019
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Estimates of hydrologic responses at ungauged watersheds can be conditioned on information transferred from other gauged watersheds. This paper presents an approach to consider the variable controls on information transfer among watersheds under different conditions while at the same time featuring uncertainty representation in both the model structure and the model parameters.
Soumendra N. Bhanja, Abhijit Mukherjee, R. Rangarajan, Bridget R. Scanlon, Pragnaditya Malakar, and Shubha Verma
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 711–722, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-711-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-711-2019, 2019
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Groundwater depletion in India has been a much-debated issue in recent years. Here we investigate long-term, spatiotemporal variation in prevailing groundwater recharge rates across India. Groundwater recharge rates have been estimated based on field-scale groundwater-level measurements and the tracer injection approach; recharge rates from the two estimates compared favorably. The role of precipitation in controlling groundwater recharge is studied.
Yoram Rubin, Ching-Fu Chang, Jiancong Chen, Karina Cucchi, Bradley Harken, Falk Heße, and Heather Savoy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5675–5695, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5675-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5675-2018, 2018
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This paper addresses questions related to the adoption of stochastic methods in hydrogeology, looking at factors such as environmental regulations, financial incentives, higher education, and the collective feedback loop involving these factors. We show that stochastic hydrogeology's blind spot is in focusing on risk while ignoring uncertainty, to the detriment of its potential clients. The imbalance between the treatments of risk and uncertainty is shown to be common to multiple disciplines.
Adrian A. S. Barfod, Troels N. Vilhelmsen, Flemming Jørgensen, Anders V. Christiansen, Anne-Sophie Høyer, Julien Straubhaar, and Ingelise Møller
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5485–5508, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5485-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5485-2018, 2018
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The focus of this study is on the uncertainty related to using multiple-point statistics (MPS) for stochastic modeling of the upper 200 m of the subsurface. The main research goal is to showcase how MPS methods can be used on real-world hydrogeophysical data and show how the uncertainty related to changing the underlying MPS setup propagates into the finalized 3-D subsurface models.
Susanne A. Benz, Peter Bayer, Gerfried Winkler, and Philipp Blum
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3143–3154, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3143-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3143-2018, 2018
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Climate change is one of the most pressing challenges modern society faces. Increasing temperatures are observed both above ground and, as discussed here, in the groundwater – the source of most drinking water. Within Austria average temperature increased by 0.7 °C over the past 20 years, with an increase of more than 3 °C in some wells and temperature decrease in others. However, these extreme changes can be linked to local events such as the construction of a new drinking water supply.
Aronne Dell'Oca, Monica Riva, and Alberto Guadagnini
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 6219–6234, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-6219-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-6219-2017, 2017
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We propose new metrics to assist global sensitivity analysis of Earth systems. Our approach allows assessing the impact of model parameters on the first four statistical moments of a target model output, allowing us to ascertain which parameters can affect some moments of the model output pdf while being uninfluential to others. Our approach is fully compatible with analysis in the context of model complexity reduction, design of experiment, uncertainty quantification and risk assessment.
Anne-Sophie Høyer, Giulio Vignoli, Thomas Mejer Hansen, Le Thanh Vu, Donald A. Keefer, and Flemming Jørgensen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 6069–6089, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-6069-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-6069-2017, 2017
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We present a novel approach for 3-D geostatistical simulations. It includes practical strategies for the development of realistic 3-D training images and for incorporating the diverse geological and geophysical inputs together with their uncertainty levels (due to measurement inaccuracies and scale mismatch). Inputs consist of well logs, seismics, and an existing 3-D geomodel. The simulation domain (45 million voxels) coincides with the Miocene unit over 2810 km2 across the Danish–German border.
Johannes Christoph Haas and Steffen Birk
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2421–2448, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2421-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2421-2017, 2017
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We show that the variability of groundwater levels within an Alpine river valley is more strongly affected by human impacts on rivers than by extreme events in precipitation. The influence of precipitation is found to be more pronounced in the shallow wells of the Alpine foreland. Groundwater levels, river stages and precipitation behave more similar under drought than under flood conditions and generally exhibit a tendency towards more similar behavior in the most recent decade.
Anne F. Van Loon, Rohini Kumar, and Vimal Mishra
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1947–1971, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1947-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1947-2017, 2017
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Summer 2015 was extremely dry in Europe, hampering groundwater supply to irrigation and drinking water. For effective management, the groundwater situation should be monitored in real time, but data are not available. We tested two methods to estimate groundwater in near-real time, based on satellite data and using the relationship between rainfall and historic groundwater levels. The second method gave a good spatially variable representation of the 2015 groundwater drought in Europe.
Lin Zhu, Huili Gong, Zhenxue Dai, Gaoxuan Guo, and Pietro Teatini
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 721–733, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-721-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-721-2017, 2017
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We developed a method to characterize the distribution and variance of the hydraulic conductivity k in a multiple-zone alluvial fan by fusing multiple-source data. Consistently with the scales of the sedimentary transport energy, the k variance of the various facies decreases from the upper to the lower portion along the flow direction. The 3-D distribution of k is consistent with that of the facies. The potentialities of the proposed approach are tested on the Chaobai River megafan, China.
Boujemaa Ait-El-Fquih, Mohamad El Gharamti, and Ibrahim Hoteit
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3289–3307, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3289-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3289-2016, 2016
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We derive a new dual ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) for state-parameter estimation. The derivation is based on the one-step-ahead smoothing formulation, and unlike the standard dual EnKF, it is consistent with the Bayesian formulation of the state-parameter estimation problem and uses the observations in both state smoothing and forecast. This is shown to enhance the performance and robustness of the dual EnKF in experiments conducted with a two-dimensional synthetic groundwater aquifer model.
Yabin Sun, Dadiyorto Wendi, Dong Eon Kim, and Shie-Yui Liong
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1405–1412, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1405-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1405-2016, 2016
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This study applies artificial neural networks (ANN) to predict the groundwater table variations in a tropical wetland in Singapore. Surrounding reservoir levels and rainfall are selected as ANN inputs. The limited number of inputs eliminates the data-demanding restrictions inherent in the physical-based numerical models. The forecast is made at 4 locations with 3 leading times up to 7 days. The ANN forecast shows promising accuracy with decreasing performance when leading time progresses.
J. P. Bloomfield, B. P. Marchant, S. H. Bricker, and R. B. Morgan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 4327–4344, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4327-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4327-2015, 2015
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To improve the design of drought monitoring networks and water resource management during episodes of drought, there is a need for a better understanding of spatial variations in the response of aquifers to major meteorological droughts. This paper is the first to describe a suite of methods to quantify such variations. Using an analysis of groundwater level data for a case study from the UK, the influence of catchment characteristics on the varied response of groundwater to droughts is explored
A. Guadagnini, S. P. Neuman, T. Nan, M. Riva, and C. L. Winter
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 729–745, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-729-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-729-2015, 2015
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Previously we have shown that many earth-system and other variables can be viewed as samples from scale mixtures of truncated fractional Brownian motion or fractional Gaussian noise. Here we study statistical scaling of extreme absolute increments associated with such samples. As a real example we analyze neutron porosities from deep boreholes in diverse depositional units. Phenomena we uncover are relevant to the analysis of fluid flow and solute transport in complex hydrogeologic environments.
K. Menberg, P. Blum, B. L. Kurylyk, and P. Bayer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 4453–4466, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4453-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4453-2014, 2014
X. L. He, T. O. Sonnenborg, F. Jørgensen, and K. H. Jensen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2943–2954, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2943-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2943-2014, 2014
W. Kurtz, H.-J. Hendricks Franssen, P. Brunner, and H. Vereecken
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 3795–3813, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3795-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3795-2013, 2013
C.-M. Chang and H.-D. Yeh
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 4049–4055, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-4049-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-4049-2012, 2012
A. Guadagnini, M. Riva, and S. P. Neuman
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 3249–3260, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-3249-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-3249-2012, 2012
C.-M. Chang and H.-D. Yeh
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 641–648, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-641-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-641-2012, 2012
L. Li, H. Zhou, H. J. Hendricks Franssen, and J. J. Gómez-Hernández
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 573–590, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-573-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-573-2012, 2012
M. Siena, A. Guadagnini, M. Riva, and S. P. Neuman
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 29–42, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-29-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-29-2012, 2012
C.-F. Ni, C.-P. Lin, S.-G. Li, and J.-S. Chen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 2291–2301, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-2291-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-2291-2011, 2011
H. Murakami, X. Chen, M. S. Hahn, Y. Liu, M. L. Rockhold, V. R. Vermeul, J. M. Zachara, and Y. Rubin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1989–2001, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-1989-2010, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-1989-2010, 2010
C.-M. Chang and H.-D. Yeh
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 719–727, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-719-2010, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-719-2010, 2010
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Short summary
From the surface, it is hard to tell where underground cave systems are located. We developed a computer model to create maps of the probable cave network in an area, based on the geologic setting. We then applied our approach in reverse: in a region where an old cave network was mapped, we used modeling to test what the geologic setting might have been like when the caves formed. This is useful because understanding past cave formation can help us predict where unmapped caves are located today.
From the surface, it is hard to tell where underground cave systems are located. We developed a...
