Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
HESS
Articles | Volume 27, issue 15
Articles | Volume 27, issue 15
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2935-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2935-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 27, issue 15
Research article
 | 
09 Aug 2023
Research article |  | 09 Aug 2023

Bayesian parameter inference in hydrological modelling using a Hamiltonian Monte Carlo approach with a stochastic rain model

Simone Ulzega and Carlo Albert

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Latest update: 01 Apr 2025
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Short summary
Embedding input uncertainties in hydrological modelling naturally leads to stochastic models, which render parameter calibration an often computationally intractable problem. We use a case study from urban hydrology based on a stochastic rain model, and we employ a highly efficient Hamiltonian Monte Carlo inference algorithm with a timescale separation to demonstrate that fully fledged Bayesian inference with stochastic models is no longer off-limits for hydrological applications.
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