Articles | Volume 26, issue 20
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5315-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5315-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
26 Oct 2022
Research article |
| 26 Oct 2022
| 26 Oct 2022
Attribution of climate change and human activities to streamflow variations with a posterior distribution of hydrological simulations
Xiongpeng Tang
Guangdong-Hong Kong Joint Laboratory for Water Security, Beijing
Normal University at Zhuhai, Zhuhai 519087, China
State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic
Engineering, Nanjing 210098, China
Guobin Fu
CSIRO, Land and Water, Private Bag 5, Wembley, WA 6913, Australia
Silong Zhang
Guangdong-Hong Kong Joint Laboratory for Water Security, Beijing
Normal University at Zhuhai, Zhuhai 519087, China
Chao Gao
Guangdong-Hong Kong Joint Laboratory for Water Security, Beijing
Normal University at Zhuhai, Zhuhai 519087, China
State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic
Engineering, Nanjing 210098, China
Hydrology and Water Resources Department, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing 210029, China
Zhenxin Bao
State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic
Engineering, Nanjing 210098, China
Hydrology and Water Resources Department, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing 210029, China
Yanli Liu
State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic
Engineering, Nanjing 210098, China
Hydrology and Water Resources Department, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing 210029, China
Cuishan Liu
State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic
Engineering, Nanjing 210098, China
Hydrology and Water Resources Department, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing 210029, China
Junliang Jin
State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic
Engineering, Nanjing 210098, China
Hydrology and Water Resources Department, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing 210029, China
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Cited
13 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Quantitative hydrological response to climate change and human activities in North and South Sources in upper stream of Qiantang River Basin, East China C. Xia et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2022.101222
- Separating typhoon and non-typhoon rainfall reveals structural hydrological regime shifts in coastal-to-inland basins X. Qian & S. Son https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135941
- Flow regime alteration under progressive multi-reservoir development in the Upper Yangtze River basin Z. Xie et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103694
- Decoupling of precipitation and streamflow trends induced by forest expansion: Evidence from time-varying Budyko analysis T. Lee et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103317
- A new framework for quantifying the impacts of climate variability and human activities on streamflow variation with an application to the upper Da river basin H. Khuong et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-025-04072-6
- A dataset of land surface characteristics and time-series hydrometeorological data for typical catchments in China (2003–2020) H. MA et al. https://doi.org/10.11922/11-6035.csd.2025.0144.zh
- Attribution of streamflow and its seasonal variation to dual nature-society drivers using CMIP6 data and hydrological models M. Wang et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133314
- Spatiotemporal Dynamics and Attribution Analysis of Blue and Green Water Resources During 1980–2019 in the Hanjiang River Basin, China P. Tian et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/w17071008
- Predicting Ili River streamflow change and identifying the major drivers with a novel hybrid model S. Liu et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.101807
- Analyzing the effects of climate change and human activities on streamflow in a North China arid basin: a machine learning perspective considering model structural uncertainty J. Wang et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-025-05352-y
- A Global Assessment of Climate Change and Anthropogenic Effects on Changes in Streamflow R. Yang et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-025-04448-4
- Scenario-based evidence for anthropogenic contributions to future water supply-demand risk in the Songliao Basin Y. Sun et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103620
- Managing Basin Vulnerability Under Uncertainty: A Confidence-Based Framework for Small-Sample Water Resources Decisions F. Kherazi et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-026-04838-2
13 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Quantitative hydrological response to climate change and human activities in North and South Sources in upper stream of Qiantang River Basin, East China C. Xia et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2022.101222
- Separating typhoon and non-typhoon rainfall reveals structural hydrological regime shifts in coastal-to-inland basins X. Qian & S. Son https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135941
- Flow regime alteration under progressive multi-reservoir development in the Upper Yangtze River basin Z. Xie et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103694
- Decoupling of precipitation and streamflow trends induced by forest expansion: Evidence from time-varying Budyko analysis T. Lee et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103317
- A new framework for quantifying the impacts of climate variability and human activities on streamflow variation with an application to the upper Da river basin H. Khuong et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-025-04072-6
- A dataset of land surface characteristics and time-series hydrometeorological data for typical catchments in China (2003–2020) H. MA et al. https://doi.org/10.11922/11-6035.csd.2025.0144.zh
- Attribution of streamflow and its seasonal variation to dual nature-society drivers using CMIP6 data and hydrological models M. Wang et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133314
- Spatiotemporal Dynamics and Attribution Analysis of Blue and Green Water Resources During 1980–2019 in the Hanjiang River Basin, China P. Tian et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/w17071008
- Predicting Ili River streamflow change and identifying the major drivers with a novel hybrid model S. Liu et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.101807
- Analyzing the effects of climate change and human activities on streamflow in a North China arid basin: a machine learning perspective considering model structural uncertainty J. Wang et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-025-05352-y
- A Global Assessment of Climate Change and Anthropogenic Effects on Changes in Streamflow R. Yang et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-025-04448-4
- Scenario-based evidence for anthropogenic contributions to future water supply-demand risk in the Songliao Basin Y. Sun et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103620
- Managing Basin Vulnerability Under Uncertainty: A Confidence-Based Framework for Small-Sample Water Resources Decisions F. Kherazi et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-026-04838-2
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 09 Aug 2026
Short summary
In this study, we proposed a new framework that considered the uncertainties of model simulations in quantifying the contribution rate of climate change and human activities to streamflow changes. Then, the Lancang River basin was selected for the case study. The results of quantitative analysis using the new framework showed that the reason for the decrease in the streamflow at Yunjinghong station was mainly human activities.
In this study, we proposed a new framework that considered the uncertainties of model...
