Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
HESS
Articles | Volume 26, issue 19
Articles | Volume 26, issue 19
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4975-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4975-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 26, issue 19
Research article
 | 
10 Oct 2022
Research article |  | 10 Oct 2022

Probabilistic subseasonal precipitation forecasts using preceding atmospheric intraseasonal signals in a Bayesian perspective

Yuan Li, Zhiyong Wu, Hai He, and Hao Yin

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Short summary
The relationship between atmospheric intraseasonal signals and precipitation is highly uncertain and depends on the region and lead time. In this study, we develop a spatiotemporal projection, based on a Bayesian hierarchical model (STP-BHM), to address the above challenge. The results suggest that the STP-BHM model is skillful and reliable for probabilistic subseasonal precipitation forecasts over China during the boreal summer monsoon season.
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