Articles | Volume 25, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3595-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3595-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
24 Jun 2021
Research article |
| 24 Jun 2021
| 24 Jun 2021
Statistical modelling and climate variability of compound surge and precipitation events in a managed water system: a case study in the Netherlands
Víctor M. Santos
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Civil, Environmental and Construction Engineering, National Center for Integrated Coastal Research, University of Central Florida, Orlando, Florida, USA
NIOZ Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research, Department of Estuarine & Delta Systems, P.O. Box 140, 4400 AC Yerseke, the Netherlands
Mercè Casas-Prat
Climate Research Division, Science and Technology Directorate, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Benjamin Poschlod
Department of Geography, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität, Munich, Germany
Elisa Ragno
Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Delft University of Technology, Delft, the Netherlands
Bart van den Hurk
Deltares, Delft, the Netherlands
Zengchao Hao
College of Water Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
Tímea Kalmár
Department of Meteorology, Faculty of Science, Institute of Geography and Earth Sciences, Eötvös Loránd University, Budapest, Hungary
Lianhua Zhu
Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education; Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, China
Husain Najafi
Department of Computational Hydrosystems, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ, Leipzig, Germany
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Cited
33 citations as recorded by crossref.
- A Hybrid Framework for Rapidly Locating Transition Zones: A Comparison of Event‐ and Response‐Based Return Water Levels in the Suwannee River FL R. Jane et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022WR032481
- Compounding Effects of Fluvial Flooding and Storm Tides on Coastal Flooding Risk in the Coastal-Estuarine Region of Southeastern China W. Lu et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13020238
- Effects of Internal Climate Variability on Historical Ocean Wave Height Trend Assessment M. Casas-Prat et al. https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2022.847017
- Horizontal two-dimensional groundwater-level fluctuations in response to the combined actions of tide and rainfall in an unconfined coastal aquifer Y. Zheng et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10040-022-02564-8
- Impact assessment of climate change on compound flooding in a coastal city K. Xu et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.129166
- The role of preconditioning for extreme storm surges in the western Baltic Sea E. Andrée et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1817-2023
- Varieties of approaches to constructing physical climate storylines: A review M. Baldissera Pacchetti et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.869
- Updating catastrophe models to today’s climate – An application of a large ensemble approach to extreme rainfall A. Lang & B. Poschlod https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2024.100594
- Compound flood events: analysing the joint occurrence of extreme river discharge events and storm surges in northern and central Europe P. Heinrich et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1967-2023
- Identifying and assessing the jacking effect under compound flooding in a coastal city using particle tracking method Y. Zhuang et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133180
- Compound flood models in coastal areas: a review of methods and uncertainty analysis K. Xu et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-022-05683-3
- Jacking characterization of compound flooding on drainage network based on physical model experiment and numerical simulation Y. Zhuang et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.watres.2025.123845
- Assessing the Potential for Compound Storm Surge and Extreme River Discharge Events at the Catchment Scale with Statistical Models: Sensitivity Analysis and Recommendations for Best Practice R. Jane et al. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0002154
- Compound flood impact of water level and rainfall during tropical cyclone periods in a coastal city: the case of Shanghai H. Xu et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2347-2022
- Storm surges and extreme sea levels: Review, establishment of model intercomparison and coordination of surge climate projection efforts (SurgeMIP). N. Bernier et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2024.100689
- Influence of data source and copula statistics on estimates of compound flood extremes in a river mouth environment K. Dubois et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3245-2024
- Sea Level Rise in Europe: Impacts and consequences R. van de Wal et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-5-2024
- Review article: A comprehensive review of compound flooding literature with a focus on coastal and estuarine regions J. Green et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-747-2025
- Rising risks of hydroclimatic swings: A large ensemble study of dry and wet spell transitions in North America W. Na & M. Najafi https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2024.104476
- Consideration of compound drivers and impacts in the disaster risk reduction cycle B. van den Hurk et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isci.2023.106030
- Model-based assessment of climate change impact on inland flood risk at the German North Sea coast caused by compounding storm tide and precipitation events H. Bormann et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2559-2024
- Temporal changes in dependence between compound coastal and inland flooding drivers around the contiguous United States coastline A. Nasr et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2023.100594
- Predicting increased diffuse nitrogen loss from compound extreme precipitations and pollution risk assessment J. Hu et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2026.148420
- Towards a socio-ecological system understanding of urban flood risk and barriers to climate change adaptation using causal loop diagrams F. Hanf et al. https://doi.org/10.1080/19463138.2025.2474399
- Compound flooding: A review on assessment framework A. Akter & S. Ataullah https://doi.org/10.1007/s11852-025-01153-7
- Guidelines for Studying Diverse Types of Compound Weather and Climate Events E. Bevacqua et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002340
- Facilitating knowledge sharing and co-creation between communities of climate research and its users X. Zhang & Z. Jiang https://doi.org/10.30852/sb.2022.1994
- Nonparametric Approach to Copula Estimation in Compounding The Joint Impact of Storm Surge and Rainfall Events in Coastal Flood Analysis S. Latif & S. Simonovic https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-022-03321-y
- A 100-member ensemble simulations of global historical (1951–2010) wave heights M. Casas-Prat et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-023-02058-6
- Storylines of weather-induced crop failure events under climate change H. Goulart et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1503-2021
- Wind-wave climate changes and their impacts M. Casas-Prat et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-023-00502-0
- Assessing the potential of compound extreme storm surge and precipitation along China's coastline Y. Li et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2024.100702
- Assessing compound flooding potential with multivariate statistical models in a complex estuarine system under data constraints V. Santos et al. https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12749
33 citations as recorded by crossref.
- A Hybrid Framework for Rapidly Locating Transition Zones: A Comparison of Event‐ and Response‐Based Return Water Levels in the Suwannee River FL R. Jane et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022WR032481
- Compounding Effects of Fluvial Flooding and Storm Tides on Coastal Flooding Risk in the Coastal-Estuarine Region of Southeastern China W. Lu et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13020238
- Effects of Internal Climate Variability on Historical Ocean Wave Height Trend Assessment M. Casas-Prat et al. https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2022.847017
- Horizontal two-dimensional groundwater-level fluctuations in response to the combined actions of tide and rainfall in an unconfined coastal aquifer Y. Zheng et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10040-022-02564-8
- Impact assessment of climate change on compound flooding in a coastal city K. Xu et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.129166
- The role of preconditioning for extreme storm surges in the western Baltic Sea E. Andrée et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1817-2023
- Varieties of approaches to constructing physical climate storylines: A review M. Baldissera Pacchetti et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.869
- Updating catastrophe models to today’s climate – An application of a large ensemble approach to extreme rainfall A. Lang & B. Poschlod https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2024.100594
- Compound flood events: analysing the joint occurrence of extreme river discharge events and storm surges in northern and central Europe P. Heinrich et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1967-2023
- Identifying and assessing the jacking effect under compound flooding in a coastal city using particle tracking method Y. Zhuang et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133180
- Compound flood models in coastal areas: a review of methods and uncertainty analysis K. Xu et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-022-05683-3
- Jacking characterization of compound flooding on drainage network based on physical model experiment and numerical simulation Y. Zhuang et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.watres.2025.123845
- Assessing the Potential for Compound Storm Surge and Extreme River Discharge Events at the Catchment Scale with Statistical Models: Sensitivity Analysis and Recommendations for Best Practice R. Jane et al. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0002154
- Compound flood impact of water level and rainfall during tropical cyclone periods in a coastal city: the case of Shanghai H. Xu et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2347-2022
- Storm surges and extreme sea levels: Review, establishment of model intercomparison and coordination of surge climate projection efforts (SurgeMIP). N. Bernier et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2024.100689
- Influence of data source and copula statistics on estimates of compound flood extremes in a river mouth environment K. Dubois et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3245-2024
- Sea Level Rise in Europe: Impacts and consequences R. van de Wal et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-5-2024
- Review article: A comprehensive review of compound flooding literature with a focus on coastal and estuarine regions J. Green et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-747-2025
- Rising risks of hydroclimatic swings: A large ensemble study of dry and wet spell transitions in North America W. Na & M. Najafi https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2024.104476
- Consideration of compound drivers and impacts in the disaster risk reduction cycle B. van den Hurk et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isci.2023.106030
- Model-based assessment of climate change impact on inland flood risk at the German North Sea coast caused by compounding storm tide and precipitation events H. Bormann et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2559-2024
- Temporal changes in dependence between compound coastal and inland flooding drivers around the contiguous United States coastline A. Nasr et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2023.100594
- Predicting increased diffuse nitrogen loss from compound extreme precipitations and pollution risk assessment J. Hu et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2026.148420
- Towards a socio-ecological system understanding of urban flood risk and barriers to climate change adaptation using causal loop diagrams F. Hanf et al. https://doi.org/10.1080/19463138.2025.2474399
- Compound flooding: A review on assessment framework A. Akter & S. Ataullah https://doi.org/10.1007/s11852-025-01153-7
- Guidelines for Studying Diverse Types of Compound Weather and Climate Events E. Bevacqua et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002340
- Facilitating knowledge sharing and co-creation between communities of climate research and its users X. Zhang & Z. Jiang https://doi.org/10.30852/sb.2022.1994
- Nonparametric Approach to Copula Estimation in Compounding The Joint Impact of Storm Surge and Rainfall Events in Coastal Flood Analysis S. Latif & S. Simonovic https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-022-03321-y
- A 100-member ensemble simulations of global historical (1951–2010) wave heights M. Casas-Prat et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-023-02058-6
- Storylines of weather-induced crop failure events under climate change H. Goulart et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1503-2021
- Wind-wave climate changes and their impacts M. Casas-Prat et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-023-00502-0
- Assessing the potential of compound extreme storm surge and precipitation along China's coastline Y. Li et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2024.100702
- Assessing compound flooding potential with multivariate statistical models in a complex estuarine system under data constraints V. Santos et al. https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12749
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 23 Jun 2026
Short summary
We present an application of multivariate statistical models to assess compound flooding events in a managed reservoir. Data (from a previous study) were obtained from a physical-based hydrological model driven by a regional climate model large ensemble, providing a time series expanding up to 800 years in length that ensures stable statistics. The length of the data set allows for a sensitivity assessment of the proposed statistical framework to natural climate variability.
We present an application of multivariate statistical models to assess compound flooding events...
