Articles | Volume 24, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3851-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3851-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
30 Jul 2020
Research article |
| 30 Jul 2020
| 30 Jul 2020
The benefit of using an ensemble of seasonal streamflow forecasts in water allocation decisions
Water Resources and Ecosystems Department, IHE Delft Institute for Water Education, Delft, the Netherlands
Wageningen Institute for Environment and Climate Research, Wageningen University & Research, the Netherlands
FutureWater, Costerweg 1V, 6702 AA Wageningen, the Netherlands
Faysal Chowdhury
Water Resources and Ecosystems Department, IHE Delft Institute for Water Education, Delft, the Netherlands
Micha Werner
Water Resources and Ecosystems Department, IHE Delft Institute for Water Education, Delft, the Netherlands
Division of Inland Water Systems, Deltares, Delft, the Netherlands
James Bennett
CSIRO Land & Water, Clayton, Victoria, Australia
Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Battery Point, Tasmania, Australia
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Cited
27 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Hybrid physical–statistical framework for seasonal streamflow forecasting in the Upper Feather River Basin, California Z. Ozcan et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-15932-7
- Delivering the latest global water resource simulation results to the public J. Boulange et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100386
- Understanding Water Governance in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia: Governance Framework, Coherence and Practices E. Jibat et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-024-01966-6
- Informing Stochastic Streamflow Generation by Large-Scale Climate Indices at Single and Multiple Sites M. Zaerpour et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2021.104037
- Multi-agent reinforcement learning for competitive-cooperative inter-city water resources allocation: a dynamic strategy optimization framework M. Yuan et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135782
- Use of Climate Information in Water Allocation: A Case of Study in a Semiarid Region J. Pereira et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/w15132460
- QDeepGR4J: Quantile-based ensemble of deep learning and GR4J hybrid rainfall-runoff models for extreme flow prediction with uncertainty quantification A. Kapoor & R. Chandra https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.134434
- How useful are seasonal forecasts for farmers facing drought? A user-based modelling approach C. Linés & M. Werner https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100595
- Daily streamflow prediction using lightGBM and random forest in the Fiumarella di Corleto basin, Southern Italy M. Yaseen et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-026-02816-6
- A forecast-informed stochastic optimization framework for irrigation water allocation using ensemble precipitation forecasts S. Yan et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.hydrch.2026.100027
- Connecting hydrological modelling and forecasting from global to local scales: Perspectives from an international joint virtual workshop A. Dasgupta et al. https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12880
- Using Ensemble Streamflow Forecasts to Inform Seasonal Outlooks for Water Allocations in the Murray Darling Basin T. Graham et al. https://doi.org/10.1061/JWRMD5.WRENG-6099
- Developing a conceptual framework integrating Geographic Information System (GIS) and Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) techniques for housing flood susceptibility assessment N. Rushdi et al. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJHMA-03-2026-0057
- Hydrometeorological Insights into the Forecasting Performance of Multi-Source Weather over a Typical Hill-Karst Basin, Southwest China C. Mo et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15020236
- A stochastic deep-learning-based approach for improved streamflow simulation N. Dolatabadi & B. Zahraie https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-023-02567-1
- Advancing Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal Streamflow Forecasting in Canada: A Review of Conventional and Emerging Approaches for Operational Applications D. Nguyen et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rineng.2025.106345
- A new approach of coupled long-range forecasts for streamflow and groundwater level D. Robertson et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.130837
- Evaluating rainfall forecasting capability of multi-source weather (MSWX) product over rainfall regimes of Ethiopia E. Aniley et al. https://doi.org/10.1080/10106049.2025.2480298
- Daily reservoir inflow forecasting using weather forecast downscaling and rainfall-runoff modeling: Application to Urmia Lake basin, Iran A. Meydani et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2022.101228
- Incorporating long-term numerical weather forecasts to quantify dynamic vulnerability of irrigation supply system: A case study of Shihmen Reservoir in Taiwan C. Hsu & Y. Lin https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2024.109178
- Climate adaptation options for the 2026 Basin Plan: opportunities for managing climate risk J. Alexandra https://doi.org/10.1080/13241583.2022.2133643
- Predicting future exceedance probability of streamflow using the long-term weather outlook and logistic regression: a case study in Northern Taiwan Q. Huang et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s44195-025-00120-x
- Understanding the relationship between streamflow forecast skill and value across the western US P. Modi et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-5593-2025
- Dynamic programming for sustainable water management: improving water allocation in a large irrigation network S. Wahyuni et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/1593/1/012026
- Hybrid modelling for forecasting daily river streamflow in Iran A. Jahanshahi https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2026.2714291
- Wildfire and climate change amplify knowledge gaps linking mountain source-water systems and agricultural water supply in the western United States D. Barnard et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2023.108377
- Reliability of Ensemble Climatological Forecasts Z. Huang et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023WR034942
27 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Hybrid physical–statistical framework for seasonal streamflow forecasting in the Upper Feather River Basin, California Z. Ozcan et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-15932-7
- Delivering the latest global water resource simulation results to the public J. Boulange et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100386
- Understanding Water Governance in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia: Governance Framework, Coherence and Practices E. Jibat et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-024-01966-6
- Informing Stochastic Streamflow Generation by Large-Scale Climate Indices at Single and Multiple Sites M. Zaerpour et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2021.104037
- Multi-agent reinforcement learning for competitive-cooperative inter-city water resources allocation: a dynamic strategy optimization framework M. Yuan et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135782
- Use of Climate Information in Water Allocation: A Case of Study in a Semiarid Region J. Pereira et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/w15132460
- QDeepGR4J: Quantile-based ensemble of deep learning and GR4J hybrid rainfall-runoff models for extreme flow prediction with uncertainty quantification A. Kapoor & R. Chandra https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.134434
- How useful are seasonal forecasts for farmers facing drought? A user-based modelling approach C. Linés & M. Werner https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100595
- Daily streamflow prediction using lightGBM and random forest in the Fiumarella di Corleto basin, Southern Italy M. Yaseen et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-026-02816-6
- A forecast-informed stochastic optimization framework for irrigation water allocation using ensemble precipitation forecasts S. Yan et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.hydrch.2026.100027
- Connecting hydrological modelling and forecasting from global to local scales: Perspectives from an international joint virtual workshop A. Dasgupta et al. https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12880
- Using Ensemble Streamflow Forecasts to Inform Seasonal Outlooks for Water Allocations in the Murray Darling Basin T. Graham et al. https://doi.org/10.1061/JWRMD5.WRENG-6099
- Developing a conceptual framework integrating Geographic Information System (GIS) and Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) techniques for housing flood susceptibility assessment N. Rushdi et al. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJHMA-03-2026-0057
- Hydrometeorological Insights into the Forecasting Performance of Multi-Source Weather over a Typical Hill-Karst Basin, Southwest China C. Mo et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15020236
- A stochastic deep-learning-based approach for improved streamflow simulation N. Dolatabadi & B. Zahraie https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-023-02567-1
- Advancing Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal Streamflow Forecasting in Canada: A Review of Conventional and Emerging Approaches for Operational Applications D. Nguyen et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rineng.2025.106345
- A new approach of coupled long-range forecasts for streamflow and groundwater level D. Robertson et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.130837
- Evaluating rainfall forecasting capability of multi-source weather (MSWX) product over rainfall regimes of Ethiopia E. Aniley et al. https://doi.org/10.1080/10106049.2025.2480298
- Daily reservoir inflow forecasting using weather forecast downscaling and rainfall-runoff modeling: Application to Urmia Lake basin, Iran A. Meydani et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2022.101228
- Incorporating long-term numerical weather forecasts to quantify dynamic vulnerability of irrigation supply system: A case study of Shihmen Reservoir in Taiwan C. Hsu & Y. Lin https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2024.109178
- Climate adaptation options for the 2026 Basin Plan: opportunities for managing climate risk J. Alexandra https://doi.org/10.1080/13241583.2022.2133643
- Predicting future exceedance probability of streamflow using the long-term weather outlook and logistic regression: a case study in Northern Taiwan Q. Huang et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s44195-025-00120-x
- Understanding the relationship between streamflow forecast skill and value across the western US P. Modi et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-5593-2025
- Dynamic programming for sustainable water management: improving water allocation in a large irrigation network S. Wahyuni et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/1593/1/012026
- Hybrid modelling for forecasting daily river streamflow in Iran A. Jahanshahi https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2026.2714291
- Wildfire and climate change amplify knowledge gaps linking mountain source-water systems and agricultural water supply in the western United States D. Barnard et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2023.108377
- Reliability of Ensemble Climatological Forecasts Z. Huang et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023WR034942
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 23 Aug 2026
Short summary
This paper was developed from PhD research focused on assessing the value of using hydrological datasets in water resource management. Previous studies have assessed how well data can help in predicting river flows, but there is a lack of knowledge of how well data can help in water allocation decisions. In our research, it was found that using seasonal streamflow forecasts improves the available water estimates, resulting in better water allocation decisions in a highly regulated basin.
This paper was developed from PhD research focused on assessing the value of using hydrological...
