Articles | Volume 24, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3311-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3311-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
29 Jun 2020
Research article |
| 29 Jun 2020
| 29 Jun 2020
Simulations of future changes in thermal structure of Lake Erken: proof of concept for ISIMIP2b lake sector local simulation strategy
Ana I. Ayala
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Limnology, Department of Ecology and Genetics, Uppsala University, 752 36 Uppsala, Sweden
Nonlinearity and Climate Group, Department of Applied Physics,
University of Geneva, 1211 Geneva 4, Switzerland
Simone Moras
Limnology, Department of Ecology and Genetics, Uppsala University, 752 36 Uppsala, Sweden
Donald C. Pierson
Limnology, Department of Ecology and Genetics, Uppsala University, 752 36 Uppsala, Sweden
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Cited
30 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Impact of Climate Change on the Hydrology of the Forested Watershed That Drains to Lake Erken in Sweden: An Analysis Using SWAT+ and CMIP6 Scenarios I. Jiménez-Navarro et al. 10.3390/f12121803
- Ensemble of models shows coherent response of a reservoir’s stratification and ice cover to climate warming J. Feldbauer et al. 10.1007/s00027-022-00883-2
- THERMAL REGIME OF THE SMALL ARAL SEA IN CHANGING CLIMATE CONDITIONS A. Izhitskiy 10.29006/1564-2291.JOR-2023.51(2).2
- Drivers of phytoplankton responses to summer wind events in a stratified lake: A modeling study J. Mesman et al. 10.1002/lno.12040
- Short-term negative effects of seawater acidification on the rhodolith holobionts metatranscriptome C. Estrada et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.178614
- Synergistic effects of climate warming and atmospheric nutrient deposition on the alpine lake ecosystem in the south-eastern Tibetan Plateau during the Anthropocene C. Zhang et al. 10.3389/fevo.2023.1119840
- LakeEnsemblR: An R package that facilitates ensemble modelling of lakes T. Moore et al. 10.1016/j.envsoft.2021.105101
- The pace of shifting seasons in lakes R. Woolway 10.1038/s41467-023-37810-4
- Estimation of diurnal patterns of global solar radiation, temperature, relative humidity and wind speed from daily datasets at a humid tropical location O. Matthew 10.1016/j.agrformet.2022.109003
- A stacked machine learning model for multi-step ahead prediction of lake surface water temperature F. Di Nunno et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.164323
- Variability in epilimnion depth estimations in lakes H. Wilson et al. 10.5194/hess-24-5559-2020
- Evaluating the influence of topography data resolution on lake hydrodynamic model under a simulation uncertainty analysis framework Q. Han et al. 10.1016/j.envsoft.2025.106330
- Past and future climate change effects on the thermal regime and oxygen solubility of four peri-alpine lakes O. Desgué-Itier et al. 10.5194/hess-27-837-2023
- Learning from a large-scale calibration effort of multiple lake temperature models J. Feldbauer et al. 10.5194/hess-29-1183-2025
- Lake Water Temperature Modeling in an Era of Climate Change: Data Sources, Models, and Future Prospects S. Piccolroaz et al. 10.1029/2023RG000816
- Phenological shifts in lake stratification under climate change R. Woolway et al. 10.1038/s41467-021-22657-4
- Synergistic Effects of Warming and Internal Nutrient Loading Interfere with the Long-Term Stability of Lake Restoration and Induce Sudden Re-eutrophication X. Kong et al. 10.1021/acs.est.2c07181
- Climate Change Impacts on Surface Heat Fluxes in a Deep Monomictic Lake A. Ayala et al. 10.1029/2022JD038355
- Effect of Climate Change on Water Temperature and Stratification of a Small, Temperate, Karstic Lake (Lake Kozjak, Croatia) K. Šarović & Z. Klaić 10.1007/s40710-023-00663-6
- The extent and variability of storm‐induced temperature changes in lakes measured with long‐term and high‐frequency data J. Doubek et al. 10.1002/lno.11739
- Double‐edged effects of anthropogenic activities on lake ecological dynamics in northern China: Evidence from palaeolimnology and ecosystem modelling C. Zhang et al. 10.1111/fwb.14077
- Lake heatwaves under climate change R. Woolway et al. 10.1038/s41586-020-03119-1
- Uncertainty in projections of future lake thermal dynamics is differentially driven by lake and global climate models J. Wynne et al. 10.7717/peerj.15445
- Multi-model projections of future evaporation in a sub-tropical lake S. La Fuente et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.128729
- A novel objective function DYNO for automatic multivariable calibration of 3D lake models W. Xia et al. 10.5194/hess-26-3651-2022
- Application of an integrated catchment-lake model approach for simulating effects of climate change on lake inputs and biogeochemistry I. Jiménez-Navarro et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.163946
- Earlier ice breakup induces changepoint responses in duration and variability of spring mixing and summer stratification in dimictic lakes R. Pilla & C. Williamson 10.1002/lno.11888
- Multidecadal trends in ultraviolet radiation, temperature, and dissolved oxygen have altered vertical habitat availability for Daphnia in temperate Lake Giles, USA R. Pilla & C. Williamson 10.1111/fwb.14044
- Winter inverse lake stratification under historic and future climate change R. Woolway et al. 10.1002/lol2.10231
- A framework for ensemble modelling of climate change impacts on lakes worldwide: the ISIMIP Lake Sector M. Golub et al. 10.5194/gmd-15-4597-2022
30 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Impact of Climate Change on the Hydrology of the Forested Watershed That Drains to Lake Erken in Sweden: An Analysis Using SWAT+ and CMIP6 Scenarios I. Jiménez-Navarro et al. 10.3390/f12121803
- Ensemble of models shows coherent response of a reservoir’s stratification and ice cover to climate warming J. Feldbauer et al. 10.1007/s00027-022-00883-2
- THERMAL REGIME OF THE SMALL ARAL SEA IN CHANGING CLIMATE CONDITIONS A. Izhitskiy 10.29006/1564-2291.JOR-2023.51(2).2
- Drivers of phytoplankton responses to summer wind events in a stratified lake: A modeling study J. Mesman et al. 10.1002/lno.12040
- Short-term negative effects of seawater acidification on the rhodolith holobionts metatranscriptome C. Estrada et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.178614
- Synergistic effects of climate warming and atmospheric nutrient deposition on the alpine lake ecosystem in the south-eastern Tibetan Plateau during the Anthropocene C. Zhang et al. 10.3389/fevo.2023.1119840
- LakeEnsemblR: An R package that facilitates ensemble modelling of lakes T. Moore et al. 10.1016/j.envsoft.2021.105101
- The pace of shifting seasons in lakes R. Woolway 10.1038/s41467-023-37810-4
- Estimation of diurnal patterns of global solar radiation, temperature, relative humidity and wind speed from daily datasets at a humid tropical location O. Matthew 10.1016/j.agrformet.2022.109003
- A stacked machine learning model for multi-step ahead prediction of lake surface water temperature F. Di Nunno et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.164323
- Variability in epilimnion depth estimations in lakes H. Wilson et al. 10.5194/hess-24-5559-2020
- Evaluating the influence of topography data resolution on lake hydrodynamic model under a simulation uncertainty analysis framework Q. Han et al. 10.1016/j.envsoft.2025.106330
- Past and future climate change effects on the thermal regime and oxygen solubility of four peri-alpine lakes O. Desgué-Itier et al. 10.5194/hess-27-837-2023
- Learning from a large-scale calibration effort of multiple lake temperature models J. Feldbauer et al. 10.5194/hess-29-1183-2025
- Lake Water Temperature Modeling in an Era of Climate Change: Data Sources, Models, and Future Prospects S. Piccolroaz et al. 10.1029/2023RG000816
- Phenological shifts in lake stratification under climate change R. Woolway et al. 10.1038/s41467-021-22657-4
- Synergistic Effects of Warming and Internal Nutrient Loading Interfere with the Long-Term Stability of Lake Restoration and Induce Sudden Re-eutrophication X. Kong et al. 10.1021/acs.est.2c07181
- Climate Change Impacts on Surface Heat Fluxes in a Deep Monomictic Lake A. Ayala et al. 10.1029/2022JD038355
- Effect of Climate Change on Water Temperature and Stratification of a Small, Temperate, Karstic Lake (Lake Kozjak, Croatia) K. Šarović & Z. Klaić 10.1007/s40710-023-00663-6
- The extent and variability of storm‐induced temperature changes in lakes measured with long‐term and high‐frequency data J. Doubek et al. 10.1002/lno.11739
- Double‐edged effects of anthropogenic activities on lake ecological dynamics in northern China: Evidence from palaeolimnology and ecosystem modelling C. Zhang et al. 10.1111/fwb.14077
- Lake heatwaves under climate change R. Woolway et al. 10.1038/s41586-020-03119-1
- Uncertainty in projections of future lake thermal dynamics is differentially driven by lake and global climate models J. Wynne et al. 10.7717/peerj.15445
- Multi-model projections of future evaporation in a sub-tropical lake S. La Fuente et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.128729
- A novel objective function DYNO for automatic multivariable calibration of 3D lake models W. Xia et al. 10.5194/hess-26-3651-2022
- Application of an integrated catchment-lake model approach for simulating effects of climate change on lake inputs and biogeochemistry I. Jiménez-Navarro et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.163946
- Earlier ice breakup induces changepoint responses in duration and variability of spring mixing and summer stratification in dimictic lakes R. Pilla & C. Williamson 10.1002/lno.11888
- Multidecadal trends in ultraviolet radiation, temperature, and dissolved oxygen have altered vertical habitat availability for Daphnia in temperate Lake Giles, USA R. Pilla & C. Williamson 10.1111/fwb.14044
- Winter inverse lake stratification under historic and future climate change R. Woolway et al. 10.1002/lol2.10231
- A framework for ensemble modelling of climate change impacts on lakes worldwide: the ISIMIP Lake Sector M. Golub et al. 10.5194/gmd-15-4597-2022
Latest update: 23 Apr 2025
Short summary
The impacts of different levels of global warming on the thermal structure of Lake Erken are assessed. We used the General Ocean Turbulence Model (GOTM) to simulate water temperature driven by meteorological scenarios supplied by the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) and tested its ability at different frequencies. Then, daily ISIMIP meteorological scenarios were disaggregated and assessed for the effects of climate change on lake thermal structure.
The impacts of different levels of global warming on the thermal structure of Lake Erken are...
