Articles | Volume 24, issue 6
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3251–3269, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3251-2020
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3251–3269, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3251-2020

Research article 23 Jun 2020

Research article | 23 Jun 2020

Assessment of extreme flows and uncertainty under climate change: disentangling the uncertainty contribution of representative concentration pathways, global climate models and internal climate variability

Chao Gao et al.

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Short summary
This paper studies the impact of climate change on high and low flows and quantifies the contribution of uncertainty sources from representative concentration pathways (RCPs), global climate models (GCMs) and internal climate variability in extreme flows. Internal climate variability was reflected in a stochastic rainfall model. The results show the importance of internal climate variability and GCM uncertainty in high flows and GCM and RCP uncertainty in low flows especially for the far future.