Articles | Volume 24, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1543-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1543-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Historical and future changes in global flood magnitude – evidence from a model–observation investigation
School of Civil, Environmental and Mining Engineering, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, Australia
Faculty of Environment and Natural Resources, Nong Lam University, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
School for Environment and Sustainability, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA
Fang Zhao
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
School of Geographical Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai, China
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
Seth Westra
School of Civil, Environmental and Mining Engineering, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, Australia
Michael Leonard
School of Civil, Environmental and Mining Engineering, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, Australia
Lukas Gudmundsson
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Department of
Environmental Systems Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Julien Eric Stanislas Boulange
Center for Global Environmental Research, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan
Jinfeng Chang
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement,
CEA-CNRS-UVSQ/IPSL, Université Paris Saclay, 91191 Gif sur Yvette,
France
Philippe Ciais
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement,
CEA-CNRS-UVSQ/IPSL, Université Paris Saclay, 91191 Gif sur Yvette,
France
Dieter Gerten
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
Geography Department, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany
Simon N. Gosling
School of Geography, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, UK
Hannes Müller Schmied
Institute of Physical Geography, Goethe University Frankfurt, Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Senckenberg Leibniz Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (SBiK-F), Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Tobias Stacke
Institute of Coastal Research, Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht (HZG),
Geesthacht, Germany
Camelia-Eliza Telteu
Institute of Physical Geography, Goethe University Frankfurt, Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Yoshihide Wada
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg,
Austria
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Cited
53 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Weighting climate models for hydrological projections: effects on contrasting hydroclimatic regions M. Castaneda-Gonzalez et al.
- Higher emissions scenarios lead to more extreme flooding in the United States H. Kim & G. Villarini
- Future global streamflow declines are probably more severe than previously estimated Y. Zhang et al.
- Increasing Risk of Ecological Change to Major Rivers of the World With Global Warming J. Thompson et al.
- Soil and Environmental Consequences of Spring Flooding in the Zhabay River Floodplain (Akmola Region) M. Aitzhanova et al.
- The Roles of Catchment Characteristics in Precipitation Partitioning Within the Budyko Framework J. Liu & Y. You
- Climate More Important for Chinese Flood Changes Than Reservoirs and Land Use L. Yang et al.
- Climate Change and Hydrological Extremes J. Xiong & Y. Yang
- Three hypotheses on changing river flood hazards G. Blöschl
- Application of novel artificial bee colony optimized ANN and data preprocessing techniques for monthly streamflow estimation O. Katipoğlu et al.
- Shifting in the global flood timing G. Fang et al.
- Effects of future climate and land use changes on runoff in tropical regions of China S. Xue et al.
- ADHI: the African Database of Hydrometric Indices (1950–2018) Y. Tramblay et al.
- Review: Can temperature be used to inform changes to flood extremes with global warming? C. Wasko
- More flow upstream and less flow downstream: The changing form and function of global rivers D. Feng & C. Gleason
- Past and future change in global river flows L. Gudmundsson et al.
- Multivariate Analysis of Compound Flood Hazard Across Canada's Atlantic, Pacific and Great Lakes Coastal Areas F. Jalili Pirani & M. Najafi
- Evaluating a landscape-scale daily water balance model to support spatially continuous representation of flow intermittency throughout stream networks S. Yu et al.
- Global-scale characterization of streamflow extremes S. Kuntla et al.
- Performance of data-driven models based on seasonal-trend decomposition for streamflow forecasting in different climate regions of Türkiye V. Yilmaz et al.
- Amplified Drought and Flood Risk Under Future Socioeconomic and Climatic Change H. Tabari et al.
- HydroPy (v1.0): a new global hydrology model written in Python T. Stacke & S. Hagemann
- Changes in Precipitation Extremes across Vietnam and Its Relationships with Teleconnection Patterns of the Northern Hemisphere Q. Do et al.
- [Retracted] Flood Simulation Analysis of the Biliu River Basin Based on the MIKE Model Q. Liu et al.
- Grappling with uncertainties in physical climate impact projections of water resources R. Dankers & Z. Kundzewicz
- Evolution of flood generating processes under climate change in France Y. Tramblay et al.
- Going Beyond the Ensemble Mean: Assessment of Future Floods From Global Multi‐Models I. Giuntoli et al.
- Floods differ in a warmer future C. Wasko
- Climate change exacerbates the compounding of heat stress and flooding in the mid‐latitudes D. Treppiedi et al.
- Coupling a global glacier model to a global hydrological model prevents underestimation of glacier runoff P. Wiersma et al.
- Spatial and temporal characteristics of meteorological drought and wetness incidences: a comparative analysis in Ghana, West Africa, and mainland Portugal, Southwestern Europe J. Ankrah
- A Non-Stationarity Analysis of Annual Maximum Floods: A Case Study of Campaspe River Basin, Australia A. Yilmaz et al.
- A climate-informed statistical framework to indirectly estimate trends in future seasonal high flows in snow-dominated watersheds using short-term climate variability indices A. Gonzalez-Mora et al.
- Floods across the eastern United States are projected to last longer H. Kim & G. Villarini
- Changes in Magnitude and Shifts in Timing of Australian Flood Peaks M. Bari et al.
- To What Extent Are Changes in Flood Magnitude Related to Changes in Precipitation Extremes? H. Do et al.
- Future Changes in Hydro-Climatic Extremes across Vietnam: Evidence from a Semi-Distributed Hydrological Model Forced by Downscaled CMIP6 Climate Data H. Do et al.
- Anthropogenic climate change exacerbates the risk of successive flood-heat extremes: Multi-model global projections based on the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project J. Zhou et al.
- Revisiting hydro-ecological impacts of climate change on a restored floodplain wetland via hydrological / hydraulic modelling and the UK Climate Projections 2018 scenarios J. Thompson et al.
- Extreme value analysis dilemma for climate change impact assessment on global flood and extreme precipitation H. Tabari
- Agent-based intelligent real-time control for pluvial flood mitigation at urban scale C. Ye et al.
- Assessing meteorological trends and variabilities in major river basins of Northern Vietnam using global datasets B. Nguyen et al.
- Seasonal diversity of global flood changes and their drivers X. Gu et al.
- Monitoring and evaluation of the passage of high water and floods in 2018 in the Amur region T. Molchanova et al.
- Diverging projections for flood and rainfall frequency curves C. Wasko et al.
- Evidence of shorter more extreme rainfalls and increased flood variability under climate change C. Wasko et al.
- Floods and Heavy Precipitation at the Global Scale: 100‐Year Analysis and 180‐Year Reconstruction B. Renard et al.
- Simulation of the Hydro-ecological Impacts of Climate Change on an Upland Peatland in the Massif Central J. Thompson et al.
- Contemporary Trends in High and Low River Flows in Upper Indus Basin, Pakistan M. Yaseen et al.
- Observed changes in flood hazard in Africa Y. Tramblay et al.
- Causes, impacts and patterns of disastrous river floods B. Merz et al.
- Spatiotemporal evolution patterns of flood-causing rainstorm events in China from a 3D perspective J. Wang et al.
- Seventy-year long record of monthly water balance estimates for Earth’s largest lake system H. Do et al.
53 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Weighting climate models for hydrological projections: effects on contrasting hydroclimatic regions M. Castaneda-Gonzalez et al.
- Higher emissions scenarios lead to more extreme flooding in the United States H. Kim & G. Villarini
- Future global streamflow declines are probably more severe than previously estimated Y. Zhang et al.
- Increasing Risk of Ecological Change to Major Rivers of the World With Global Warming J. Thompson et al.
- Soil and Environmental Consequences of Spring Flooding in the Zhabay River Floodplain (Akmola Region) M. Aitzhanova et al.
- The Roles of Catchment Characteristics in Precipitation Partitioning Within the Budyko Framework J. Liu & Y. You
- Climate More Important for Chinese Flood Changes Than Reservoirs and Land Use L. Yang et al.
- Climate Change and Hydrological Extremes J. Xiong & Y. Yang
- Three hypotheses on changing river flood hazards G. Blöschl
- Application of novel artificial bee colony optimized ANN and data preprocessing techniques for monthly streamflow estimation O. Katipoğlu et al.
- Shifting in the global flood timing G. Fang et al.
- Effects of future climate and land use changes on runoff in tropical regions of China S. Xue et al.
- ADHI: the African Database of Hydrometric Indices (1950–2018) Y. Tramblay et al.
- Review: Can temperature be used to inform changes to flood extremes with global warming? C. Wasko
- More flow upstream and less flow downstream: The changing form and function of global rivers D. Feng & C. Gleason
- Past and future change in global river flows L. Gudmundsson et al.
- Multivariate Analysis of Compound Flood Hazard Across Canada's Atlantic, Pacific and Great Lakes Coastal Areas F. Jalili Pirani & M. Najafi
- Evaluating a landscape-scale daily water balance model to support spatially continuous representation of flow intermittency throughout stream networks S. Yu et al.
- Global-scale characterization of streamflow extremes S. Kuntla et al.
- Performance of data-driven models based on seasonal-trend decomposition for streamflow forecasting in different climate regions of Türkiye V. Yilmaz et al.
- Amplified Drought and Flood Risk Under Future Socioeconomic and Climatic Change H. Tabari et al.
- HydroPy (v1.0): a new global hydrology model written in Python T. Stacke & S. Hagemann
- Changes in Precipitation Extremes across Vietnam and Its Relationships with Teleconnection Patterns of the Northern Hemisphere Q. Do et al.
- [Retracted] Flood Simulation Analysis of the Biliu River Basin Based on the MIKE Model Q. Liu et al.
- Grappling with uncertainties in physical climate impact projections of water resources R. Dankers & Z. Kundzewicz
- Evolution of flood generating processes under climate change in France Y. Tramblay et al.
- Going Beyond the Ensemble Mean: Assessment of Future Floods From Global Multi‐Models I. Giuntoli et al.
- Floods differ in a warmer future C. Wasko
- Climate change exacerbates the compounding of heat stress and flooding in the mid‐latitudes D. Treppiedi et al.
- Coupling a global glacier model to a global hydrological model prevents underestimation of glacier runoff P. Wiersma et al.
- Spatial and temporal characteristics of meteorological drought and wetness incidences: a comparative analysis in Ghana, West Africa, and mainland Portugal, Southwestern Europe J. Ankrah
- A Non-Stationarity Analysis of Annual Maximum Floods: A Case Study of Campaspe River Basin, Australia A. Yilmaz et al.
- A climate-informed statistical framework to indirectly estimate trends in future seasonal high flows in snow-dominated watersheds using short-term climate variability indices A. Gonzalez-Mora et al.
- Floods across the eastern United States are projected to last longer H. Kim & G. Villarini
- Changes in Magnitude and Shifts in Timing of Australian Flood Peaks M. Bari et al.
- To What Extent Are Changes in Flood Magnitude Related to Changes in Precipitation Extremes? H. Do et al.
- Future Changes in Hydro-Climatic Extremes across Vietnam: Evidence from a Semi-Distributed Hydrological Model Forced by Downscaled CMIP6 Climate Data H. Do et al.
- Anthropogenic climate change exacerbates the risk of successive flood-heat extremes: Multi-model global projections based on the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project J. Zhou et al.
- Revisiting hydro-ecological impacts of climate change on a restored floodplain wetland via hydrological / hydraulic modelling and the UK Climate Projections 2018 scenarios J. Thompson et al.
- Extreme value analysis dilemma for climate change impact assessment on global flood and extreme precipitation H. Tabari
- Agent-based intelligent real-time control for pluvial flood mitigation at urban scale C. Ye et al.
- Assessing meteorological trends and variabilities in major river basins of Northern Vietnam using global datasets B. Nguyen et al.
- Seasonal diversity of global flood changes and their drivers X. Gu et al.
- Monitoring and evaluation of the passage of high water and floods in 2018 in the Amur region T. Molchanova et al.
- Diverging projections for flood and rainfall frequency curves C. Wasko et al.
- Evidence of shorter more extreme rainfalls and increased flood variability under climate change C. Wasko et al.
- Floods and Heavy Precipitation at the Global Scale: 100‐Year Analysis and 180‐Year Reconstruction B. Renard et al.
- Simulation of the Hydro-ecological Impacts of Climate Change on an Upland Peatland in the Massif Central J. Thompson et al.
- Contemporary Trends in High and Low River Flows in Upper Indus Basin, Pakistan M. Yaseen et al.
- Observed changes in flood hazard in Africa Y. Tramblay et al.
- Causes, impacts and patterns of disastrous river floods B. Merz et al.
- Spatiotemporal evolution patterns of flood-causing rainstorm events in China from a 3D perspective J. Wang et al.
- Seventy-year long record of monthly water balance estimates for Earth’s largest lake system H. Do et al.
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 14 May 2026
Short summary
We presented a global comparison between observed and simulated trends in a flood index over the 1971–2005 period using the Global Streamflow Indices and Metadata archive and six global hydrological models available through The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project. Streamflow simulations over 2006–2099 period robustly project high flood hazard in several regions. These high-flood-risk areas, however, are under-sampled by the current global streamflow databases.
We presented a global comparison between observed and simulated trends in a flood index over the...