Articles | Volume 22, issue 12
Research article
21 Dec 2018
Research article |  | 21 Dec 2018

On the skill of raw and post-processed ensemble seasonal meteorological forecasts in Denmark

Diana Lucatero, Henrik Madsen, Jens C. Refsgaard, Jacob Kidmose, and Karsten H. Jensen

Data sets

Climate Grid Denmark – Dateset for use in research and education M. Scharling and C. Kern-Hansen

Short summary
The present study evaluates the skill of a seasonal forecasting system for hydrological relevant variables in Denmark. Linear scaling and quantile mapping were used to correct the forecasts. Uncorrected forecasts tend to be more skillful than climatology, in general, for the first month lead time only. Corrected forecasts show a reduced bias in the mean; are more consistent; and show a level of accuracy that is closer to, although no higher than, that of ensemble climatology, in general.