Development and evaluation of a stochastic daily rainfall model  with long-term variability

Chowdhury, A. F. M. Kamal; Lockart, Natalie; Willgoose, Garry; Kuczera, George; Kiem, Anthony S.; Parana Manage, Nadeeka

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-6541-2017

Articles | Volume 21, issue 12

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-6541-2017

© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-6541-2017

© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Articles | Volume 21, issue 12

Research article

|

22 Dec 2017

Research article |

| 22 Dec 2017

Development and evaluation of a stochastic daily rainfall model with long-term variability

A. F. M. Kamal Chowdhury, Natalie Lockart, Garry Willgoose, George Kuczera, Anthony S. Kiem, and Nadeeka Parana Manage

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Final revised paper (published on 22 Dec 2017)
Preprint (discussion started on 27 Feb 2017)

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment

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- Supplement

RC1: 'Review', Venkat Lakshmi, 28 Feb 2017
- AC1: 'response to Venkat Lakshmi comments', Garry Willgoose, 10 Mar 2017
RC2: 'Review of Chowdhury et al.', Niko Verhoest, 05 Apr 2017
RC3: 'referee comment', Sri Srikanthan, 11 Apr 2017

Peer-review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision

ED: Publish subject to revisions (further review by Editor and Referees) (26 Apr 2017) by Carlo De Michele

AR by Garry Willgoose on behalf of the Authors (07 Jul 2017) Author's response Manuscript

ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (17 Aug 2017) by Carlo De Michele

RR by Venkat Lakshmi (17 Aug 2017)

RR by Sri Srikanthan (12 Sep 2017)

ED: Publish as is (09 Oct 2017) by Carlo De Michele

AR by Garry Willgoose on behalf of the Authors (25 Oct 2017)

Short summary

Stochastic rainfall models are required to be be able to assess the reliability of dams used for urban water supply. Traditional Markov chain stochastic models do well at reproducing the mean and variance of rainfall at daily to weekly resolution but fail to simultaneously reproduce the variability of monthly to decadal rainfall. This paper presents four new extensions to Markov chain models that address this decadal deficiency and compares their performance for two field sites.