Articles | Volume 21, issue 11
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 5747–5762, 2017
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5747-2017

Special issue: Sub-seasonal to seasonal hydrological forecasting

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 5747–5762, 2017
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5747-2017
Research article
22 Nov 2017
Research article | 22 Nov 2017

Verification of ECMWF System 4 for seasonal hydrological forecasting in a northern climate

Rachel Bazile et al.

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Short summary
Meteorological forecasting agencies constantly work on pushing the limit of predictability farther in time. However, some end users need proof that climate model outputs are ready to be implemented operationally. We show that bias correction is crucial for the use of ECMWF System4 forecasts for the studied area and there is a potential for the use of 1-month-ahead forecasts. Beyond this, forecast performance is equivalent to using past climatology series as inputs to the hydrological model.