Articles | Volume 21, issue 11
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 5747–5762, 2017
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5747-2017

Special issue: Sub-seasonal to seasonal hydrological forecasting

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 5747–5762, 2017
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5747-2017

Research article 22 Nov 2017

Research article | 22 Nov 2017

Verification of ECMWF System 4 for seasonal hydrological forecasting in a northern climate

Rachel Bazile et al.

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Interactive discussion

Status: closed
Status: closed
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
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Peer-review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (further review by Editor) (09 Sep 2017) by Q.J. Wang
AR by Rachel Bazile on behalf of the Authors (26 Sep 2017)  Author's response    Manuscript
ED: Publish as is (30 Sep 2017) by Q.J. Wang
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Short summary
Meteorological forecasting agencies constantly work on pushing the limit of predictability farther in time. However, some end users need proof that climate model outputs are ready to be implemented operationally. We show that bias correction is crucial for the use of ECMWF System4 forecasts for the studied area and there is a potential for the use of 1-month-ahead forecasts. Beyond this, forecast performance is equivalent to using past climatology series as inputs to the hydrological model.