Verification of ECMWF System 4 for seasonal hydrological forecasting in a northern climate

Bazile, Rachel; Boucher, Marie-Amélie; Perreault, Luc; Leconte, Robert

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5747-2017

Articles | Volume 21, issue 11

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5747-2017

© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Special issue:

Sub-seasonal to seasonal hydrological forecasting

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5747-2017

© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 21, issue 11

Research article

|

22 Nov 2017

Research article |

| 22 Nov 2017

Verification of ECMWF System 4 for seasonal hydrological forecasting in a northern climate

Rachel Bazile, Marie-Amélie Boucher, Luc Perreault, and Robert Leconte

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Final revised paper (published on 22 Nov 2017)
Preprint (discussion started on 12 Jul 2017)

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment

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- Supplement

RC1: 'Review', Kristian Förster, 21 Jul 2017
- AC1: 'Response to Referee 1 comments', Rachel Bazile, 06 Sep 2017
RC2: 'Interactive comment on Basile R. et al. “Verification of ECMWF System4 for seasonal hydrological forecasting in a northern climate”', Anonymous Referee #2, 31 Jul 2017
- AC2: 'Response to Referee 2 comments', Rachel Bazile, 06 Sep 2017
RC3: 'Referee comment', Anonymous Referee #3, 14 Aug 2017
- AC3: 'Response to Referee 3 comments', Rachel Bazile, 06 Sep 2017

Peer-review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision

ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (further review by Editor) (09 Sep 2017) by Q.J. Wang

AR by Rachel Bazile on behalf of the Authors (26 Sep 2017) Author's response Manuscript

ED: Publish as is (30 Sep 2017) by Q.J. Wang

AR by Rachel Bazile on behalf of the Authors (04 Oct 2017)

Short summary

Meteorological forecasting agencies constantly work on pushing the limit of predictability farther in time. However, some end users need proof that climate model outputs are ready to be implemented operationally. We show that bias correction is crucial for the use of ECMWF System4 forecasts for the studied area and there is a potential for the use of 1-month-ahead forecasts. Beyond this, forecast performance is equivalent to using past climatology series as inputs to the hydrological model.