Articles | Volume 21, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4517-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4517-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
11 Sep 2017
Research article |
| 11 Sep 2017
Should seasonal rainfall forecasts be used for flood preparedness?
Erin Coughlan de Perez
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, The Hague, 2521 CV, the Netherlands
Institute for Environmental Studies, VU University Amsterdam, 1081 HV, the Netherlands
International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, New York, 10964, USA
Elisabeth Stephens
School of Archaeology, Geography and Environmental Science, University of Reading, Reading, RG6 6AH, UK
Konstantinos Bischiniotis
Institute for Environmental Studies, VU University Amsterdam, 1081 HV, the Netherlands
Maarten van Aalst
Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, The Hague, 2521 CV, the Netherlands
International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, New York, 10964, USA
Bart van den Hurk
Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, 3731 GA, the Netherlands
Simon Mason
International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, New York, 10964, USA
Hannah Nissan
International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, New York, 10964, USA
Florian Pappenberger
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, RG2 9AX, UK
Viewed
Total article views: 5,211 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Cumulative views and downloads
(calculated since 10 Feb 2017)
| HTML | XML | Total | Supplement | BibTeX | EndNote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3,355 | 1,708 | 148 | 5,211 | 248 | 108 | 145 |
- HTML: 3,355
- PDF: 1,708
- XML: 148
- Total: 5,211
- Supplement: 248
- BibTeX: 108
- EndNote: 145
Total article views: 3,993 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Cumulative views and downloads
(calculated since 11 Sep 2017)
| HTML | XML | Total | Supplement | BibTeX | EndNote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2,631 | 1,242 | 120 | 3,993 | 248 | 98 | 113 |
- HTML: 2,631
- PDF: 1,242
- XML: 120
- Total: 3,993
- Supplement: 248
- BibTeX: 98
- EndNote: 113
Total article views: 1,218 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Cumulative views and downloads
(calculated since 10 Feb 2017)
| HTML | XML | Total | BibTeX | EndNote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 724 | 466 | 28 | 1,218 | 10 | 32 |
- HTML: 724
- PDF: 466
- XML: 28
- Total: 1,218
- BibTeX: 10
- EndNote: 32
Viewed (geographical distribution)
Total article views: 5,211 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Thereof 4,854 with geography defined
and 357 with unknown origin.
Total article views: 3,993 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Thereof 3,700 with geography defined
and 293 with unknown origin.
Total article views: 1,218 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Thereof 1,154 with geography defined
and 64 with unknown origin.
| Country | # | Views | % |
|---|
| Country | # | Views | % |
|---|
| Country | # | Views | % |
|---|
| Total: | 0 |
| HTML: | 0 |
| PDF: | 0 |
| XML: | 0 |
- 1
1
| Total: | 0 |
| HTML: | 0 |
| PDF: | 0 |
| XML: | 0 |
- 1
1
| Total: | 0 |
| HTML: | 0 |
| PDF: | 0 |
| XML: | 0 |
- 1
1
Cited
24 citations as recorded by crossref.
- On the Structure of the Intermittency of Rainfall P. Dey 10.1007/s11269-023-03441-z
- Climatology and Interannual Variability of Floods during the TRMM Era (1998–2013) Y. Yan et al. 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0415.1
- Identifying user needs for weather and climate services to enhance resilience to climate shocks in sub-Saharan Africa E. Nkiaka et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ab4dfe
- The influence of antecedent conditions on flood risk in sub-Saharan Africa K. Bischiniotis et al. 10.5194/nhess-18-271-2018
- What is the most useful approach for forecasting hydrological extremes during El Niño? R. Emerton et al. 10.1088/2515-7620/ab114e
- Hydrodynamic Modeling of Inundation Patterns of a Large African Floodplain Indicates Sensitivity to Waterway Restoration T. Willis et al. 10.1029/2021WR030107
- Understanding the impacts of predecessor rain events on flood hazard in a changing climate A. Khatun et al. 10.1002/hyp.14500
- Connecting hydrological modelling and forecasting from global to local scales: Perspectives from an international joint virtual workshop A. Dasgupta et al. 10.1111/jfr3.12880
- Forecasting Magnitude and Frequency of Seasonal Streamflow Extremes Using a Bayesian Hierarchical Framework Á. Ossandón et al. 10.1029/2022WR033194
- Targeted model evaluations for climate services: A case study on heat waves in Bangladesh H. Nissan et al. 10.1016/j.crm.2020.100213
- Influence of ENSO and tropical Atlantic climate variability on flood characteristics in the Amazon basin J. Towner et al. 10.5194/hess-25-3875-2021
- Understanding the use of 2015–2016 El Niño forecasts in shaping early humanitarian action in Eastern and Southern Africa A. Tozier de la Poterie et al. 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2018.02.025
- Trends, Variability, and Seasonality of Maximum Annual Daily Precipitation in the Upper Vistula Basin, Poland D. Młyński et al. 10.3390/atmos9080313
- At the extremes: Assessing interrelations among the impacts of and responses to extreme hydroclimatic events in Ceará, Northeast Brazil C. Seigerman et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.130850
- Developing a global operational seasonal hydro-meteorological forecasting system: GloFAS-Seasonal v1.0 R. Emerton et al. 10.5194/gmd-11-3327-2018
- The efficacy of seasonal terrestrial water storage forecasts for predicting vegetation activity over Africa B. Cook et al. 10.1175/JHM-D-21-0046.1
- Re-prioritizing climate services for agriculture: Insights from Bangladesh S. Mason et al. 10.1016/j.cliser.2022.100306
- Seasonal Flow Forecasting Using Satellite-Driven Precipitation Data for Awash and Omo-Gibe Basins, Ethiopia S. Woldegebrael et al. 10.3390/rs14184518
- Hydrological regimes explain the seasonal predictability of streamflow extremes Y. Du et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/acf678
- From skill to value: isolating the influence of end user behavior on seasonal forecast assessment M. Giuliani et al. 10.5194/hess-24-5891-2020
- Skilful seasonal forecasts of streamflow over Europe? L. Arnal et al. 10.5194/hess-22-2057-2018
- Improving Seasonal Forecasts for Basin Scale Hydrological Applications M. Grillakis et al. 10.3390/w10111593
- Verification of Weather and Seasonal Forecast Information Concerning the Peri-Urban Farmers’ Needs in the Lower Ganges Delta in Bangladesh S. Paparrizos et al. 10.3390/atmos11101041
- Linking information provision to behavioural intentions M. Abunyewah et al. 10.1108/IJDRBE-08-2019-0059
24 citations as recorded by crossref.
- On the Structure of the Intermittency of Rainfall P. Dey 10.1007/s11269-023-03441-z
- Climatology and Interannual Variability of Floods during the TRMM Era (1998–2013) Y. Yan et al. 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0415.1
- Identifying user needs for weather and climate services to enhance resilience to climate shocks in sub-Saharan Africa E. Nkiaka et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ab4dfe
- The influence of antecedent conditions on flood risk in sub-Saharan Africa K. Bischiniotis et al. 10.5194/nhess-18-271-2018
- What is the most useful approach for forecasting hydrological extremes during El Niño? R. Emerton et al. 10.1088/2515-7620/ab114e
- Hydrodynamic Modeling of Inundation Patterns of a Large African Floodplain Indicates Sensitivity to Waterway Restoration T. Willis et al. 10.1029/2021WR030107
- Understanding the impacts of predecessor rain events on flood hazard in a changing climate A. Khatun et al. 10.1002/hyp.14500
- Connecting hydrological modelling and forecasting from global to local scales: Perspectives from an international joint virtual workshop A. Dasgupta et al. 10.1111/jfr3.12880
- Forecasting Magnitude and Frequency of Seasonal Streamflow Extremes Using a Bayesian Hierarchical Framework Á. Ossandón et al. 10.1029/2022WR033194
- Targeted model evaluations for climate services: A case study on heat waves in Bangladesh H. Nissan et al. 10.1016/j.crm.2020.100213
- Influence of ENSO and tropical Atlantic climate variability on flood characteristics in the Amazon basin J. Towner et al. 10.5194/hess-25-3875-2021
- Understanding the use of 2015–2016 El Niño forecasts in shaping early humanitarian action in Eastern and Southern Africa A. Tozier de la Poterie et al. 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2018.02.025
- Trends, Variability, and Seasonality of Maximum Annual Daily Precipitation in the Upper Vistula Basin, Poland D. Młyński et al. 10.3390/atmos9080313
- At the extremes: Assessing interrelations among the impacts of and responses to extreme hydroclimatic events in Ceará, Northeast Brazil C. Seigerman et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.130850
- Developing a global operational seasonal hydro-meteorological forecasting system: GloFAS-Seasonal v1.0 R. Emerton et al. 10.5194/gmd-11-3327-2018
- The efficacy of seasonal terrestrial water storage forecasts for predicting vegetation activity over Africa B. Cook et al. 10.1175/JHM-D-21-0046.1
- Re-prioritizing climate services for agriculture: Insights from Bangladesh S. Mason et al. 10.1016/j.cliser.2022.100306
- Seasonal Flow Forecasting Using Satellite-Driven Precipitation Data for Awash and Omo-Gibe Basins, Ethiopia S. Woldegebrael et al. 10.3390/rs14184518
- Hydrological regimes explain the seasonal predictability of streamflow extremes Y. Du et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/acf678
- From skill to value: isolating the influence of end user behavior on seasonal forecast assessment M. Giuliani et al. 10.5194/hess-24-5891-2020
- Skilful seasonal forecasts of streamflow over Europe? L. Arnal et al. 10.5194/hess-22-2057-2018
- Improving Seasonal Forecasts for Basin Scale Hydrological Applications M. Grillakis et al. 10.3390/w10111593
- Verification of Weather and Seasonal Forecast Information Concerning the Peri-Urban Farmers’ Needs in the Lower Ganges Delta in Bangladesh S. Paparrizos et al. 10.3390/atmos11101041
- Linking information provision to behavioural intentions M. Abunyewah et al. 10.1108/IJDRBE-08-2019-0059
Discussed (final revised paper)
Latest update: 24 Dec 2024
Short summary
Disaster managers would like to use seasonal forecasts to anticipate flooding months in advance. However, current seasonal forecasts give information on rainfall instead of flooding. Here, we find that the number of extreme events, rather than total rainfall, is most related to flooding in different regions of Africa. We recommend several forecast adjustments and research opportunities that would improve flood information at the seasonal timescale in different regions.
Disaster managers would like to use seasonal forecasts to anticipate flooding months in advance....
Special issue