Articles | Volume 21, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4517-2017
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4517-2017
Research article
 | 
11 Sep 2017
Research article |  | 11 Sep 2017

Should seasonal rainfall forecasts be used for flood preparedness?

Erin Coughlan de Perez, Elisabeth Stephens, Konstantinos Bischiniotis, Maarten van Aalst, Bart van den Hurk, Simon Mason, Hannah Nissan, and Florian Pappenberger

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Latest update: 18 Jul 2024
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Short summary
Disaster managers would like to use seasonal forecasts to anticipate flooding months in advance. However, current seasonal forecasts give information on rainfall instead of flooding. Here, we find that the number of extreme events, rather than total rainfall, is most related to flooding in different regions of Africa. We recommend several forecast adjustments and research opportunities that would improve flood information at the seasonal timescale in different regions.