Using rainfall thresholds and ensemble precipitation forecasts to issue and improve urban inundation alerts

Yang, Tsun-Hua; Hwang, Gong-Do; Tsai, Chin-Cheng; Ho, Jui-Yi

doi:10.5194/hess-20-4731-2016

Articles | Volume 20, issue 12

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4731-2016

© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4731-2016

© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Articles | Volume 20, issue 12

Research article

|

30 Nov 2016

Research article |

| 30 Nov 2016

Using rainfall thresholds and ensemble precipitation forecasts to issue and improve urban inundation alerts

Tsun-Hua Yang, Gong-Do Hwang, Chin-Cheng Tsai, and Jui-Yi Ho

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Total article views: 2,967 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)

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1,654	1,198	115	2,967	104	126

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XML: 115
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Views and downloads (calculated since 29 Jul 2016)

Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
Jul 2016	20	3	3	26
Aug 2016	57	13	0	70
Sep 2016	9	5	1	15
Oct 2016	16	0	16
Nov 2016	51	16	0	67
Dec 2016	125	17	1	143
Jan 2017	28	15	0	43
Feb 2017	6	7	1	14
Mar 2017	22	17	2	41
Apr 2017	25	12	1	38
May 2017	24	13	0	37
Jun 2017	20	10	1	31
Jul 2017	11	5	1	17
Aug 2017	9	13	2	24
Sep 2017	16	18	0	34
Oct 2017	13	15	0	28
Nov 2017	8	10	0	18
Dec 2017	11	15	1	27
Jan 2018	8	6	3	17
Feb 2018	8	7	0	15
Mar 2018	14	17	0	31
Apr 2018	9	10	0	19
May 2018	9	11	1	21
Jun 2018	8	11	0	19
Jul 2018	3	8	1	12
Aug 2018	13	6	0	19
Sep 2018	9	11	0	20
Oct 2018	10	12	0	22
Nov 2018	11	6	3	20
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Jan 2019	7	6	0	13
Feb 2019	5	6	0	11
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Apr 2019	9	8	0	17
May 2019	8	11	1	20
Jun 2019	4	7	0	11
Jul 2019	10	11	0	21
Aug 2019	4	9	2	15
Sep 2019	9	13	1	23
Oct 2019	11	15	2	28
Nov 2019	11	9	0	20
Dec 2019	6	6	2	14
Jan 2020	18	7	4	29
Feb 2020	9	7	0	16
Mar 2020	7	8	0	15
Apr 2020	2	4	0	6
May 2020	3	9	0	12
Jun 2020	13	20	0	33
Jul 2020	15	16	5	36
Aug 2020	10	15	3	28
Sep 2020	14	6	0	20
Oct 2020	6	7	2	15
Nov 2020	8	14	0	22
Dec 2020	11	7	0	18
Jan 2021	21	10	2	33
Feb 2021	15	9	0	24
Mar 2021	6	9	3	18
Apr 2021	9	6	0	15
May 2021	10	13	0	23
Jun 2021	8	8	0	16
Jul 2021	6	11	1	18
Aug 2021	10	7	0	17
Sep 2021	12	10	0	22
Oct 2021	7	38	0	45
Nov 2021	19	31	1	51
Dec 2021	9	8	0	17
Jan 2022	13	19	0	32
Feb 2022	8	3	1	12
Mar 2022	8	3	0	11
Apr 2022	9	7	1	17
May 2022	10	8	2	20
Jun 2022	9	17	2	28
Jul 2022	6	10	0	16
Aug 2022	15	8	0	23
Sep 2022	7	14	0	21
Oct 2022	7	4	0	11
Nov 2022	9	9	0	18
Dec 2022	7	2	0	9
Jan 2023	19	14	3	36
Feb 2023	15	6	0	21
Mar 2023	19	11	1	31
Apr 2023	5	3	0	8
May 2023	25	12	2	39
Jun 2023	29	7	1	37
Jul 2023	17	12	5	34
Aug 2023	11	3	2	16
Sep 2023	7	11	1	19
Oct 2023	6	7	0	13
Nov 2023	14	6	1	21
Dec 2023	12	3	2	17
Jan 2024	13	7	0	20
Feb 2024	8	8	2	18
Mar 2024	16	18	2	36
Apr 2024	22	5	5	32
May 2024	17	17	7	41
Jun 2024	13	17	1	31
Jul 2024	15	5	2	22
Aug 2024	28	9	1	38
Sep 2024	12	8	0	20
Oct 2024	16	2	0	18
Nov 2024	12	12	0	24
Dec 2024	16	5	0	21
Jan 2025	20	8	4	32
Feb 2025	21	10	1	32
Mar 2025	18	14	0	32
Apr 2025	17	13	1	31
May 2025	15	7	1	23
Jun 2025	35	18	0	53
Jul 2025	24	25	3	52
Aug 2025	20	12	2	34
Sep 2025	32	14	1	47
Oct 2025	26	31	1	58
Nov 2025	26	25	4	55

Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 29 Jul 2016)

Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
Jul 2016	20	3	3	26
Aug 2016	57	13	0	70
Sep 2016	9	5	1	15
Oct 2016	16	0	16
Nov 2016	51	16	0	67
Dec 2016	125	17	1	143
Jan 2017	28	15	0	43
Feb 2017	6	7	1	14
Mar 2017	22	17	2	41
Apr 2017	25	12	1	38
May 2017	24	13	0	37
Jun 2017	20	10	1	31
Jul 2017	11	5	1	17
Aug 2017	9	13	2	24
Sep 2017	16	18	0	34
Oct 2017	13	15	0	28
Nov 2017	8	10	0	18
Dec 2017	11	15	1	27
Jan 2018	8	6	3	17
Feb 2018	8	7	0	15
Mar 2018	14	17	0	31
Apr 2018	9	10	0	19
May 2018	9	11	1	21
Jun 2018	8	11	0	19
Jul 2018	3	8	1	12
Aug 2018	13	6	0	19
Sep 2018	9	11	0	20
Oct 2018	10	12	0	22
Nov 2018	11	6	3	20
Dec 2018	12	10	0	22
Jan 2019	7	6	0	13
Feb 2019	5	6	0	11
Mar 2019	8	9	2	19
Apr 2019	9	8	0	17
May 2019	8	11	1	20
Jun 2019	4	7	0	11
Jul 2019	10	11	0	21
Aug 2019	4	9	2	15
Sep 2019	9	13	1	23
Oct 2019	11	15	2	28
Nov 2019	11	9	0	20
Dec 2019	6	6	2	14
Jan 2020	18	7	4	29
Feb 2020	9	7	0	16
Mar 2020	7	8	0	15
Apr 2020	2	4	0	6
May 2020	3	9	0	12
Jun 2020	13	20	0	33
Jul 2020	15	16	5	36
Aug 2020	10	15	3	28
Sep 2020	14	6	0	20
Oct 2020	6	7	2	15
Nov 2020	8	14	0	22
Dec 2020	11	7	0	18
Jan 2021	21	10	2	33
Feb 2021	15	9	0	24
Mar 2021	6	9	3	18
Apr 2021	9	6	0	15
May 2021	10	13	0	23
Jun 2021	8	8	0	16
Jul 2021	6	11	1	18
Aug 2021	10	7	0	17
Sep 2021	12	10	0	22
Oct 2021	7	38	0	45
Nov 2021	19	31	1	51
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Jan 2022	13	19	0	32
Feb 2022	8	3	1	12
Mar 2022	8	3	0	11
Apr 2022	9	7	1	17
May 2022	10	8	2	20
Jun 2022	9	17	2	28
Jul 2022	6	10	0	16
Aug 2022	15	8	0	23
Sep 2022	7	14	0	21
Oct 2022	7	4	0	11
Nov 2022	9	9	0	18
Dec 2022	7	2	0	9
Jan 2023	19	14	3	36
Feb 2023	15	6	0	21
Mar 2023	19	11	1	31
Apr 2023	5	3	0	8
May 2023	25	12	2	39
Jun 2023	29	7	1	37
Jul 2023	17	12	5	34
Aug 2023	11	3	2	16
Sep 2023	7	11	1	19
Oct 2023	6	7	0	13
Nov 2023	14	6	1	21
Dec 2023	12	3	2	17
Jan 2024	13	7	0	20
Feb 2024	8	8	2	18
Mar 2024	16	18	2	36
Apr 2024	22	5	5	32
May 2024	17	17	7	41
Jun 2024	13	17	1	31
Jul 2024	15	5	2	22
Aug 2024	28	9	1	38
Sep 2024	12	8	0	20
Oct 2024	16	2	0	18
Nov 2024	12	12	0	24
Dec 2024	16	5	0	21
Jan 2025	20	8	4	32
Feb 2025	21	10	1	32
Mar 2025	18	14	0	32
Apr 2025	17	13	1	31
May 2025	15	7	1	23
Jun 2025	35	18	0	53
Jul 2025	24	25	3	52
Aug 2025	20	12	2	34
Sep 2025	32	14	1	47
Oct 2025	26	31	1	58
Nov 2025	26	25	4	55

Latest update: 27 Nov 2025

Short summary

Taiwan continues to suffer from floods. This study proposes the integration of rainfall thresholds and ensemble precipitation forecasts to provide probabilistic urban inundation forecasts. Utilization of ensemble precipitation forecasts can extend forecast lead times to 72 h, preceding peak flows and allowing response agencies to take necessary preparatory measures. This study also develops a hybrid of real-time observation and rainfall forecasts to improve the first 24 h inundation forecasts.