Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
HESS
Articles | Volume 20, issue 12
Articles | Volume 20, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4731-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4731-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Articles | Volume 20, issue 12
Research article
 | 
30 Nov 2016
Research article |  | 30 Nov 2016

Using rainfall thresholds and ensemble precipitation forecasts to issue and improve urban inundation alerts

Tsun-Hua Yang, Gong-Do Hwang, Chin-Cheng Tsai, and Jui-Yi Ho

Data sets

TAPEX’s rainfall forecasts for typhoons during 2013 to 2015 Taiwan Typhoon and Flood Research Institute (TTFRI) https://tf-rat.narlabs.org.tw/member/login/?next=/

Rainfall thresholds for townships in Taiwan Water Resources Agency, Ministry of Economic Affairs, Taiwan (WRA) http://fhy.wra.gov.tw/Pub_Web_2011/Page/SurveyStationInfos.aspx

National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction, Taiwan (NCDR) Observed flood warnings for typhoons from 2013 to 2015 https://alerts.ncdr.nat.gov.tw/AlertdataDownload.aspx

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Short summary
Taiwan continues to suffer from floods. This study proposes the integration of rainfall thresholds and ensemble precipitation forecasts to provide probabilistic urban inundation forecasts. Utilization of ensemble precipitation forecasts can extend forecast lead times to 72 h, preceding peak flows and allowing response agencies to take necessary preparatory measures. This study also develops a hybrid of real-time observation and rainfall forecasts to improve the first 24 h inundation forecasts.
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