Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
HESS
Articles | Volume 20, issue 8
Articles | Volume 20, issue 8
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3109-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3109-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Articles | Volume 20, issue 8
Research article
 | 
02 Aug 2016
Research article |  | 02 Aug 2016

Willingness-to-pay for a probabilistic flood forecast: a risk-based decision-making game

Louise Arnal, Maria-Helena Ramos, Erin Coughlan de Perez, Hannah Louise Cloke, Elisabeth Stephens, Fredrik Wetterhall, Schalk Jan van Andel, and Florian Pappenberger

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Short summary
Forecasts are produced as probabilities of occurrence of specific events, which is both an added value and a challenge for users. This paper presents a game on flood protection, "How much are you prepared to pay for a forecast?", which investigated how users perceive the value of forecasts and are willing to pay for them when making decisions. It shows that users are mainly influenced by the perceived quality of the forecasts, their need for the information and their degree of risk tolerance.
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Effective Science Communication and Education in Hydrology...