Willingness-to-pay for a probabilistic flood forecast: a risk-based decision-making game

Arnal, Louise; Ramos, Maria-Helena; Coughlan de Perez, Erin; Cloke, Hannah Louise; Stephens, Elisabeth; Wetterhall, Fredrik; van Andel, Schalk Jan; Pappenberger, Florian

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3109-2016

Articles | Volume 20, issue 8

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3109-2016

© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Special issue:

Effective Science Communication and Education in Hydrology...

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3109-2016

© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Articles | Volume 20, issue 8

Research article

|

02 Aug 2016

Research article |

| 02 Aug 2016

Willingness-to-pay for a probabilistic flood forecast: a risk-based decision-making game

Louise Arnal, Maria-Helena Ramos, Erin Coughlan de Perez, Hannah Louise Cloke, Elisabeth Stephens, Fredrik Wetterhall, Schalk Jan van Andel, and Florian Pappenberger

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Final revised paper (published on 02 Aug 2016)
Supplement to the final revised paper
Preprint (discussion started on 19 Jan 2016)
Supplement to the preprint

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment

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- Supplement

RC1: 'Comments', Anonymous Referee #1, 19 Feb 2016
- AC1: 'Response to RC1', Louise Arnal, 14 Apr 2016
RC2: 'Comments', Anonymous Referee #2, 16 Mar 2016
- AC2: 'Response to RC2', Louise Arnal, 14 Apr 2016

Peer-review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision

ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (Editor review) (12 May 2016) by Sam Illingworth

AR by Louise Arnal on behalf of the Authors (24 May 2016) Author's response Manuscript

ED: Publish as is (25 May 2016) by Sam Illingworth

AR by Louise Arnal on behalf of the Authors (26 May 2016)

Short summary

Forecasts are produced as probabilities of occurrence of specific events, which is both an added value and a challenge for users. This paper presents a game on flood protection, "How much are you prepared to pay for a forecast?", which investigated how users perceive the value of forecasts and are willing to pay for them when making decisions. It shows that users are mainly influenced by the perceived quality of the forecasts, their need for the information and their degree of risk tolerance.