Articles | Volume 20, issue 8
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3109–3128, 2016
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3109-2016

Special issue: Effective Science Communication and Education in Hydrology...

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3109–3128, 2016
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3109-2016

Research article 02 Aug 2016

Research article | 02 Aug 2016

Willingness-to-pay for a probabilistic flood forecast: a risk-based decision-making game

Louise Arnal et al.

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Interactive discussion

Status: closed
Status: closed
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
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Peer-review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (Editor review) (12 May 2016) by Sam Illingworth
AR by Louise Arnal on behalf of the Authors (24 May 2016)  Author's response    Manuscript
ED: Publish as is (25 May 2016) by Sam Illingworth
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Short summary
Forecasts are produced as probabilities of occurrence of specific events, which is both an added value and a challenge for users. This paper presents a game on flood protection, "How much are you prepared to pay for a forecast?", which investigated how users perceive the value of forecasts and are willing to pay for them when making decisions. It shows that users are mainly influenced by the perceived quality of the forecasts, their need for the information and their degree of risk tolerance.