Articles | Volume 20, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2437-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2437-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
22 Jun 2016
Research article |
| 22 Jun 2016
An experimental seasonal hydrological forecasting system over the Yellow River basin – Part 1: Understanding the role of initial hydrological conditions
RCE-TEA, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, China
Feng Ma
RCE-TEA, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, China
State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China
Linying Wang
RCE-TEA, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, China
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China
Ziyan Zheng
RCE-TEA, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, China
Zhuguo Ma
RCE-TEA, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, China
Aizhong Ye
State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China
Shaoming Peng
Yellow River Engineering Consulting Co. Ltd., Zhengzhou, 450003, China
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- Seasonal sub-basin-scale runoff predictions: A regional hydrometeorological Ensemble Kalman Filter framework using global datasets M. Borne et al. 10.1016/j.ejrh.2022.101146
- Unraveling human influence on evapotranspiration over East Asian monsoon river basins by using GRACE/GRACE-FO data and land surface models H. Liu et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.127349
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- A probabilistic drought forecasting framework: A combined dynamical and statistical approach H. Yan et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.03.004
- Understanding and seasonal forecasting of hydrological drought in the Anthropocene X. Yuan et al. 10.5194/hess-21-5477-2017
- Effect of global climate change on the sustainability of cold-water fish habitat in the alpine region: A case study on the Gymnocypris eckloni in the source region of the Yellow River G. Zhao et al. 10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.121926
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- Evaluation of Earth Observations and In Situ Data Assimilation for Seasonal Hydrological Forecasting J. Musuuza et al. 10.1029/2022WR033655
- A nonparametric standardized runoff index for characterizing hydrological drought on the Loess Plateau, China J. Wu et al. 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2017.12.006
- Potential of Pan-European Seasonal Hydrometeorological Drought Forecasts Obtained from a Multihazard Early Warning System S. Sutanto et al. 10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0196.1
- Improving the probabilistic drought prediction with soil moisture information under the ensemble streamflow prediction framework G. Kim et al. 10.1007/s00477-024-02710-6
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- A regional hydrological model for arid and semi-arid river basins with consideration of irrigation C. Jiang et al. 10.1016/j.envsoft.2022.105531
- An Efficient Approach for Estimating Streamflow Forecast Skill Elasticity L. Arnal et al. 10.1175/JHM-D-16-0259.1
- Seasonal streamflow forecasting by surrogate modeling in the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin, China H. Gu et al. 10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.101835
- On the Dominant Factor Controlling Seasonal Hydrological Forecast Skill in China X. Zhang et al. 10.3390/w9110902
- High‐Resolution Land Surface Modeling of Hydrological Changes Over the Sanjiangyuan Region in the Eastern Tibetan Plateau: 1. Model Development and Evaluation X. Yuan et al. 10.1029/2018MS001412
- Quantifying overlapping and differing information of global precipitation for GCM forecasts and El Niño–Southern Oscillation T. Zhao et al. 10.5194/hess-26-4233-2022
- Calibração de um modelo hidrológico distribuído à bacia do rio São Francisco a partir de chuva estimada por satélite I. Mello et al. 10.59824/rmrh.v6.322
- Ensemble streamflow forecasting over a cascade reservoir catchment with integrated hydrometeorological modeling and machine learning J. Liu et al. 10.5194/hess-26-265-2022
- Quantitative Analysis of the Uncertainty of Drought Process Simulation Based on Atmospheric–Hydrological Coupling in Different Climate Zones H. Xu et al. 10.3390/w15183286
- Applying a coupled model framework to assess global climate change impacts on the river-type harmful algal blooms in the middle and lower reaches of the Hanjiang River, China G. Zhao et al. 10.1016/j.ecolind.2024.112834
- Enhancing hydrologic data assimilation by evolutionary Particle Filter and Markov Chain Monte Carlo P. Abbaszadeh et al. 10.1016/j.advwatres.2017.11.011
- Seasonal Drought Prediction: Advances, Challenges, and Future Prospects Z. Hao et al. 10.1002/2016RG000549
- Verification of ECMWF System 4 for seasonal hydrological forecasting in a northern climate R. Bazile et al. 10.5194/hess-21-5747-2017
- Multi-model skill assessment of seasonal temperature and precipitation forecasts over Europe N. Mishra et al. 10.1007/s00382-018-4404-z
- Irrigation, damming, and streamflow fluctuations of the Yellow River Z. Yin et al. 10.5194/hess-25-1133-2021
- Generating Ensemble Streamflow Forecasts: A Review of Methods and Approaches Over the Past 40 Years M. Troin et al. 10.1029/2020WR028392
- Seasonal drought ensemble predictions based on multiple climate models in the upper Han River Basin, China F. Ma et al. 10.1007/s00382-017-3577-1
- Monthly and seasonal streamflow forecasting of large dryland catchments in Brazil A. Costa et al. 10.1007/s40333-021-0097-y
- What Are the Key Drivers Controlling the Quality of Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts? I. Pechlivanidis et al. 10.1029/2019WR026987
- Moving from drought hazard to impact forecasts S. Sutanto et al. 10.1038/s41467-019-12840-z
- Copulas-based bivariate socioeconomic drought dynamic risk assessment in a changing environment Y. Guo et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.06.010
- Mechanisms and Early Warning of Drought Disasters: Experimental Drought Meteorology Research over China Y. Li et al. 10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0029.1
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- An experimental seasonal hydrological forecasting system over the Yellow River basin – Part 2: The added value from climate forecast models X. Yuan 10.5194/hess-20-2453-2016
- Conditioning ensemble streamflow prediction with the North Atlantic Oscillation improves skill at longer lead times S. Donegan et al. 10.5194/hess-25-4159-2021
- Projection of spatiotemporal patterns and possible changes of drought in the Yellow River basin, China M. Ma et al. 10.1007/s00704-019-02914-9
- Superensemble seasonal forecasting of soil moisture by NMME M. Yao & X. Yuan 10.1002/joc.5436
- A Multi-Factor Combination Model for Medium to Long-Term Runoff Prediction Based on Improved BP Neural Network K. Yan et al. 10.3390/w15203559
Saved (preprint)
Latest update: 12 Mar 2025
Short summary
An experimental seasonal hydrological forecasting system is established over the Yellow River basin to provide adaptive support in a changing environment. The system consists of downscaled NMME climate prediction, hydrological models calibrated against naturalized streamflow along the mainstream, and a post-processor to account for the human interventions implicitly. As the first paper of a two-part series, this paper investigates the hydrological predictability by using reverse ESP simulations.
An experimental seasonal hydrological forecasting system is established over the Yellow River...
