Downscaling future precipitation extremes to urban hydrology scales using a spatio-temporal Neyman–Scott weather generator

Sørup, Hjalte Jomo Danielsen; Christensen, Ole Bøssing; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1387-2016

Articles | Volume 20, issue 4

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1387-2016

© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1387-2016

© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Articles | Volume 20, issue 4

Research article

|

08 Apr 2016

Research article |

| 08 Apr 2016

Downscaling future precipitation extremes to urban hydrology scales using a spatio-temporal Neyman–Scott weather generator

Hjalte Jomo Danielsen Sørup, Ole Bøssing Christensen, Karsten Arnbjerg-Nielsen, and Peter Steen Mikkelsen

Download

Final revised paper (published on 08 Apr 2016)
Supplement to the final revised paper
Preprint (discussion started on 27 Feb 2015)
Supplement to the preprint

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment

- Printer-friendly version

- Supplement

RC C1062: 'important, but verification poor', Anonymous Referee #1, 16 Apr 2015
- AC C2306: 'Reply to Anonymous Referee #1', Hjalte Jomo Danielsen Sørup, 30 Jun 2015
RC C1749: 'Review of Sørup et al. “Downscaling future precipitation extremes to urban hydrology scales using a spatio-temporal Neyman-Scott weather generator”', Søren Thorndahl, 25 May 2015
- AC C2312: 'Reply to Søren Thorndahl', Hjalte Jomo Danielsen Sørup, 30 Jun 2015

Peer-review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision

ED: Reconsider after major revisions (19 Jul 2015) by Axel Bronstert

AR by Hjalte Jomo Danielsen Sørup on behalf of the Authors (28 Aug 2015) Author's response Manuscript

ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (04 Sep 2015) by Axel Bronstert

RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (16 Sep 2015)

Suggestions for revision or reasons for rejection

Review of version 2 of 'Downscaling future precipitation extremes to
urban hydrology scales using a spatio-temporal Neyman–Scott weather
generator' by Sørup et al.

In my first review I had pointed out the crucial role of hourly RCM
data for this study, and that such data are a) not easy to find and
that b) there is not much validation done for that case. The role of
the RCMs in this study is to calculate change factors for hourly
RCM statistics, based on a present (1980–2009) and a future period (2070-2099).

In their revised version, the authors have made some effort to clarify
the origin and use of the RCM data. From that I understand that
in-house data are used for 2 of the RCMs, while the other fo "come out
of a research project" plus the referenced Mayer et al. (2015). In
that latter source, as I had noticed in my first review, only RCM
simulations driven by the ERA interim simulations are employed.

This poses three questions whose answer is important for the validity of
the study's approach. They all relate to the simulation of present-day
climate:

1. What exactly means "out of a research project", and how were the
data thus obtained validated?

2. Are the 2 in-house simulations for present climate also driven by
ERA interim?

3. For any simulation of the future, say by using GCM G and RCM R, are
the corresponding simulations of the present, also done by G and R,
available?

If 3. cannot be answered positively, one will not be able to calculate
the change factors in a useful way. The reason is that GCM/RCM
simulations are known to be biased, the bias becoming stronger with
increasing spatial and temporal resolution. Only if a future GCM/RCM
simulated climate is related to the corresponding present GCM/RCM
climate, that is, by using identical global and regional models, one
can hope to get rid of most of the bias.

I have the impression this has not been done here. Therefore, I would
urge the authors to clearly lay out how present and future simulations
were being used. And I have to stress again that, given the potential
importance of the results of this study, their presentation is out of
balance with their validation.

Hide

RR by Anonymous Referee #3 (28 Nov 2015)

ED: Reconsider after major revisions (03 Dec 2015) by Axel Bronstert

AR by Hjalte Jomo Danielsen Sørup on behalf of the Authors (20 Jan 2016) Author's response Manuscript

ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (29 Jan 2016) by Axel Bronstert

RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (29 Jan 2016)

RR by Anonymous Referee #3 (06 Mar 2016)

ED: Publish subject to technical corrections (24 Mar 2016) by Axel Bronstert

AR by Hjalte Jomo Danielsen Sørup on behalf of the Authors (29 Mar 2016) Author's response Manuscript

Short summary

Fine-resolution spatio-temporal precipitation data are important as input to urban hydrological models to assess performance issues under all possible conditions. In the present study synthetic data at very fine spatial and temporal resolution are generated using a stochastic model. Data are generated for both present and future climate conditions. The results show that it is possible to generate spatially distributed data at resolutions relevant for urban hydrology.