Large-basin hydrological response to climate model outputs: uncertainty caused by internal atmospheric variability

Gelfan, A.; Semenov, V. A.; Gusev, E.; Motovilov, Y.; Nasonova, O.; Krylenko, I.; Kovalev, E.

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2737-2015

Articles | Volume 19, issue 6

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2737-2015

© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2737-2015

© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Articles | Volume 19, issue 6

Research article

| Highlight paper

|

15 Jun 2015

Research article | Highlight paper |

| 15 Jun 2015

Large-basin hydrological response to climate model outputs: uncertainty caused by internal atmospheric variability

A. Gelfan, V. A. Semenov, E. Gusev, Y. Motovilov, O. Nasonova, I. Krylenko, and E. Kovalev

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Final revised paper (published on 15 Jun 2015)
Preprint (discussion started on 24 Feb 2015)

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment

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RC C698: 'Uncertainty in hydrological modelling caused by climate variability', Anonymous Referee #1, 27 Mar 2015
- AC C1267: 'Authors’ responses to the comments of anonymous Reviewer 1', Alexander Gelfan, 26 Apr 2015
RC C746: 'Robust analysis of impact of GCM internal variability', Stefan Hagemann, 30 Mar 2015
- AC C1268: 'Authors’ responses to the comments of Dr. Hagemann', Alexander Gelfan, 26 Apr 2015

Peer-review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision

ED: Publish subject to technical corrections (20 May 2015) by Vazken Andréassian

AR by Alexander Gelfan on behalf of the Authors (27 May 2015) Author's response Manuscript

Short summary

Our paper is one of very few studies where the influence of stochastic internal atmospheric variability (IAV) on the hydrological response is analyzed. On the basis of ensemble experiments with GCM and hydrological models, we found, e.g., that averaging over ensemble members filters the stochastic term related to IAV, and that a considerable portion of the simulated trend in annual Lena R. runoff can be explained by the externally forced signal (global SST and SIC changes in our experiments).