Articles | Volume 19, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2737-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2737-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| Highlight paper
| 
15 Jun 2015
Research article | Highlight paper |
| 15 Jun 2015
Large-basin hydrological response to climate model outputs: uncertainty caused by internal atmospheric variability
Water Problems Institute of RAS, Moscow, Russia
P. P. Shirshov Institute of Oceanology of RAS, Moscow, Russia
V. A. Semenov
A. M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics of RAS, Moscow, Russia
P. P. Shirshov Institute of Oceanology of RAS, Moscow, Russia
Institute of Geography of RAS, Moscow, Russia
GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Kiel, Germany
E. Gusev
Water Problems Institute of RAS, Moscow, Russia
P. P. Shirshov Institute of Oceanology of RAS, Moscow, Russia
Y. Motovilov
Water Problems Institute of RAS, Moscow, Russia
P. P. Shirshov Institute of Oceanology of RAS, Moscow, Russia
O. Nasonova
Water Problems Institute of RAS, Moscow, Russia
P. P. Shirshov Institute of Oceanology of RAS, Moscow, Russia
I. Krylenko
Water Problems Institute of RAS, Moscow, Russia
Geographical Department, Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia
E. Kovalev
Water Problems Institute of RAS, Moscow, Russia
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Cited
29 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Scenario Forecasting of Changes in Water Balance Components in the Ob–Irtysh Basin in the Context of Possible Climate Change E. Gusev et al. 10.1134/S0097807819050099
- Assessing possible changes in Selenga R. water regime in the XXI century based on a runoff formation model V. Moreido & A. Kalugin 10.1134/S0097807817030149
- Modelling future hydroclimatic effects on the <i>Coregonus migratorius</i> spawning migration in the Selenga River and Lake Baikal V. Moreydo et al. 10.5194/piahs-381-113-2019
- Physically Based Modeling of the Long-Term Dynamics of Water Balance and Snow Water Storage Components in the Ob–Irtysh River Basin E. Gusev et al. 10.1134/S0097807819040109
- Projections of Selenga river runoff in the XXI century and uncertainty estimates T. Millionshchikova 10.5194/piahs-381-107-2019
- Development of runoff generation models in the former USSR and Russia: a historical overview L. Kuchment & A. Gelfan 10.1080/02626667.2024.2413013
- The multivariate climatic and anthropogenic elasticity of streamflow in the Eastern United States Y. Tsai 10.1016/j.ejrh.2016.12.078
- Hydrological simulation of river basins at different spatial scales: 1. Generalization and averaging algorithms Y. Motovilov 10.1134/S0097807816030118
- Estimation of uncertainty in surface air temperature climatic trends related to the internal dynamics of the atmosphere P. Demchenko & V. Semenov 10.1134/S1028334X17090239
- Scenario-Based Forecasts of Changes in the Temperature and Hydrological Regime of Crimea in the XXI Century by Data of CMIP6 Climate Models V. Semenov & M. Aleshina 10.1134/S0097807822040170
- Runoff Predictions in Ungauged Arctic Basins Using Conceptual Models Forced by Reanalysis Data G. Ayzel 10.1134/S0097807818060180
- How do hydrologic modeling decisions affect the portrayal of climate change impacts? P. Mendoza et al. 10.1002/hyp.10684
- Climate change impact on the water regime of two great Arctic rivers: modeling and uncertainty issues A. Gelfan et al. 10.1007/s10584-016-1710-5
- Future shift in winter streamflow modulated by the internal variability of climate in southern Ontario O. Champagne et al. 10.5194/hess-24-3077-2020
- Intercomparison of climate change impacts in 12 large river basins: overview of methods and summary of results V. Krysanova & F. Hattermann 10.1007/s10584-017-1919-y
- Projecting Changes in Russian Northern River Runoff due to Possible Climate Change during the 21st Century: A Case Study of the Northern Dvina, Taz and Indigirka Rivers O. Nasonova et al. 10.1134/S0097807819070145
- ОЦЕНКА НЕОПРЕДЕЛЁННОСТИ КЛИМАТИЧЕСКИХ ТРЕНДОВ ПРИПОВЕРХНОСТНОЙ ТЕМПЕРАТУРЫ, СВЯЗАННОЙ С ВНУТРЕННЕЙ ДИНАМИКОЙ АТМОСФЕРЫ В. Семенов 10.7868/S0869565217270202
- Changes in water regime in the high-mountain region of the Terek River (North Caucasus) in connection with climate change and degradation of glaciation E. Kornilova et al. 10.31857/S2076673424020014
- Modelling river runoff and estimating its weather-related uncertainty for 11 large-scale rivers located in different regions of the globe Y. Gusev et al. 10.2166/nh.2017.015
- Climate Change and Threats to Water Security: A Review A. Gelfan 10.1134/S0097807823600547
- Assessing uncertainty in hydrological projections arising from local-scale internal variability of climate Q. Yuan et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.129415
- Runoff of Russian Rivers under Current and Projected Climate Change: a Review 2. Climate Change Impact on the Water Regime of Russian Rivers in the XXI Century A. Gelfan et al. 10.1134/S0097807822030058
- Panta Rhei 2013–2015: global perspectives on hydrology, society and change H. McMillan et al. 10.1080/02626667.2016.1159308
- Calculation of the fracture of ice fields at a concentrated drop N. Fomicheva et al. 10.1088/1755-1315/867/1/012005
- Modelling Water Balance Components of River Basins Located in Different Regions of the Globe E. Gusev et al. 10.1134/S0097807818060246
- Hierarchy of climate and hydrological uncertainties in transient low-flow projections J. Vidal et al. 10.5194/hess-20-3651-2016
- Weather noise impact on the uncertainty of simulated water balance components of river basins Y. Gusev et al. 10.1080/02626667.2017.1319064
- Climate noise effect on uncertainty of hydrological extremes: numerical experiments with hydrological and climate models A. Gelfan et al. 10.5194/piahs-369-49-2015
- Observed and Modeled Changes in Snow Water Equivalent in the Northern Dvina Basin V. Popova et al. 10.1134/S0097807822070120
27 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Scenario Forecasting of Changes in Water Balance Components in the Ob–Irtysh Basin in the Context of Possible Climate Change E. Gusev et al. 10.1134/S0097807819050099
- Assessing possible changes in Selenga R. water regime in the XXI century based on a runoff formation model V. Moreido & A. Kalugin 10.1134/S0097807817030149
- Modelling future hydroclimatic effects on the <i>Coregonus migratorius</i> spawning migration in the Selenga River and Lake Baikal V. Moreydo et al. 10.5194/piahs-381-113-2019
- Physically Based Modeling of the Long-Term Dynamics of Water Balance and Snow Water Storage Components in the Ob–Irtysh River Basin E. Gusev et al. 10.1134/S0097807819040109
- Projections of Selenga river runoff in the XXI century and uncertainty estimates T. Millionshchikova 10.5194/piahs-381-107-2019
- Development of runoff generation models in the former USSR and Russia: a historical overview L. Kuchment & A. Gelfan 10.1080/02626667.2024.2413013
- The multivariate climatic and anthropogenic elasticity of streamflow in the Eastern United States Y. Tsai 10.1016/j.ejrh.2016.12.078
- Hydrological simulation of river basins at different spatial scales: 1. Generalization and averaging algorithms Y. Motovilov 10.1134/S0097807816030118
- Estimation of uncertainty in surface air temperature climatic trends related to the internal dynamics of the atmosphere P. Demchenko & V. Semenov 10.1134/S1028334X17090239
- Scenario-Based Forecasts of Changes in the Temperature and Hydrological Regime of Crimea in the XXI Century by Data of CMIP6 Climate Models V. Semenov & M. Aleshina 10.1134/S0097807822040170
- Runoff Predictions in Ungauged Arctic Basins Using Conceptual Models Forced by Reanalysis Data G. Ayzel 10.1134/S0097807818060180
- How do hydrologic modeling decisions affect the portrayal of climate change impacts? P. Mendoza et al. 10.1002/hyp.10684
- Climate change impact on the water regime of two great Arctic rivers: modeling and uncertainty issues A. Gelfan et al. 10.1007/s10584-016-1710-5
- Future shift in winter streamflow modulated by the internal variability of climate in southern Ontario O. Champagne et al. 10.5194/hess-24-3077-2020
- Intercomparison of climate change impacts in 12 large river basins: overview of methods and summary of results V. Krysanova & F. Hattermann 10.1007/s10584-017-1919-y
- Projecting Changes in Russian Northern River Runoff due to Possible Climate Change during the 21st Century: A Case Study of the Northern Dvina, Taz and Indigirka Rivers O. Nasonova et al. 10.1134/S0097807819070145
- ОЦЕНКА НЕОПРЕДЕЛЁННОСТИ КЛИМАТИЧЕСКИХ ТРЕНДОВ ПРИПОВЕРХНОСТНОЙ ТЕМПЕРАТУРЫ, СВЯЗАННОЙ С ВНУТРЕННЕЙ ДИНАМИКОЙ АТМОСФЕРЫ В. Семенов 10.7868/S0869565217270202
- Changes in water regime in the high-mountain region of the Terek River (North Caucasus) in connection with climate change and degradation of glaciation E. Kornilova et al. 10.31857/S2076673424020014
- Modelling river runoff and estimating its weather-related uncertainty for 11 large-scale rivers located in different regions of the globe Y. Gusev et al. 10.2166/nh.2017.015
- Climate Change and Threats to Water Security: A Review A. Gelfan 10.1134/S0097807823600547
- Assessing uncertainty in hydrological projections arising from local-scale internal variability of climate Q. Yuan et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.129415
- Runoff of Russian Rivers under Current and Projected Climate Change: a Review 2. Climate Change Impact on the Water Regime of Russian Rivers in the XXI Century A. Gelfan et al. 10.1134/S0097807822030058
- Panta Rhei 2013–2015: global perspectives on hydrology, society and change H. McMillan et al. 10.1080/02626667.2016.1159308
- Calculation of the fracture of ice fields at a concentrated drop N. Fomicheva et al. 10.1088/1755-1315/867/1/012005
- Modelling Water Balance Components of River Basins Located in Different Regions of the Globe E. Gusev et al. 10.1134/S0097807818060246
- Hierarchy of climate and hydrological uncertainties in transient low-flow projections J. Vidal et al. 10.5194/hess-20-3651-2016
- Weather noise impact on the uncertainty of simulated water balance components of river basins Y. Gusev et al. 10.1080/02626667.2017.1319064
2 citations as recorded by crossref.
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Latest update: 24 Apr 2025
Short summary
Our paper is one of very few studies where the influence of stochastic internal atmospheric variability (IAV) on the hydrological response is analyzed. On the basis of ensemble experiments with GCM and hydrological models, we found, e.g., that averaging over ensemble members filters the stochastic term related to IAV, and that a considerable portion of the simulated trend in annual Lena R. runoff can be explained by the externally forced signal (global SST and SIC changes in our experiments).
Our paper is one of very few studies where the influence of stochastic internal atmospheric...
