Large-basin hydrological response to climate model outputs: uncertainty caused by internal atmospheric variability

Gelfan, A.; Semenov, V. A.; Gusev, E.; Motovilov, Y.; Nasonova, O.; Krylenko, I.; Kovalev, E.

doi:10.5194/hess-19-2737-2015

Articles | Volume 19, issue 6

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2737-2015

© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2737-2015

© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Articles | Volume 19, issue 6

Research article

| Highlight paper

|

15 Jun 2015

Research article | Highlight paper |

| 15 Jun 2015

Large-basin hydrological response to climate model outputs: uncertainty caused by internal atmospheric variability

A. Gelfan, V. A. Semenov, E. Gusev, Y. Motovilov, O. Nasonova, I. Krylenko, and E. Kovalev

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Jun 2015	298	110	7	415
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Dec 2015	39	37	0	76
Jan 2016	84	34	0	118
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Jul 2016	16	4	3	23
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Feb 2017	17	7	1	25
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Aug 2024	28	6	0	34
Sep 2024	13	5	0	18
Oct 2024	17	7	0	24
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Feb 2025	23	5	1	29
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Apr 2025	15	12	2	29
May 2025	19	4	2	25
Jun 2025	45	12	1	58
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Sep 2025	40	12	1	53
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Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 24 Feb 2015)

Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
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Mar 2015	43	22	2	67
Apr 2015	31	16	0	47
May 2015	3	11	0	14
Jun 2015	298	110	7	415
Jul 2015	116	89	1	206
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Dec 2025	5	4	0	9

Latest update: 06 Dec 2025

Short summary

Our paper is one of very few studies where the influence of stochastic internal atmospheric variability (IAV) on the hydrological response is analyzed. On the basis of ensemble experiments with GCM and hydrological models, we found, e.g., that averaging over ensemble members filters the stochastic term related to IAV, and that a considerable portion of the simulated trend in annual Lena R. runoff can be explained by the externally forced signal (global SST and SIC changes in our experiments).