Articles | Volume 18, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-611-2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-611-2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Forecasting droughts in East Africa
E. Mwangi
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, UK
Kenya Meteorological Department, Nairobi, Kenya
F. Wetterhall
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, UK
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, UK
F. Di Giuseppe
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, UK
F. Pappenberger
College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing, China
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, UK
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Cited
86 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Droughts in East Africa: Causes, impacts and resilience G. Gebremeskel Haile et al.
- Managing the water cycle in Kenyan small‐scale maize farming systems: Part 2. Farmers’ use of formal and informal climate forecasts R. Vervoort et al.
- Using constructed analogs to improve the skill of National Multi-Model Ensemble March–April–May precipitation forecasts in equatorial East Africa S. Shukla et al.
- Regional and farm level droughts characteristics for southwestern Uganda during 1981–2017 M. Ojara et al.
- Seasonal Drought Prediction: Advances, Challenges, and Future Prospects Z. Hao et al.
- Drought: Progress in broadening its understanding G. Haile et al.
- Optimal spatial scales for seasonal forecasts over Africa M. Young et al.
- Predictability of the East Africa long rains through Congo zonal winds N. Ward et al.
- Drought severity across Africa: a comparative analysis of multi-source precipitation datasets K. Lim Kam Sian et al.
- Toward a seasonal precipitation prediction system for West Africa: Performance of CFSv2 and high‐resolution dynamical downscaling J. Siegmund et al.
- Analysis of spatio‐temporal changes in annual and seasonal precipitation variability in South America‐Chile and related ocean–atmosphere circulation patterns R. Valdés‐Pineda et al.
- A coupled human–natural system to assess the operational value of weather and climate services for agriculture Y. Li et al.
- Drivers of sub‐seasonal extreme rainfall and their representation in ECMWF forecasts during the Eastern African March‐to‐May seasons of 2018–2020 M. Gudoshava et al.
- Projected Impacts of Climate Change on Drought Patterns Over East Africa G. Haile et al.
- Impact of climate change on potential evapotranspiration and crop water requirement in Upper Wabe Bridge watershed, Wabe Shebele River Basin, Ethiopia M. Gurara et al.
- Localizing Hydrological Drought Early Warning Using In Situ Groundwater Sensors W. Veness et al.
- Increasing the prospective capacity of global crop and rangeland monitoring with phenology tailored seasonal precipitation forecasts M. Meroni et al.
- Seasonal forecasts of the East African long rains: insight from atmospheric relaxation experiments D. MacLeod
- Improving sub-seasonal forecast skill of meteorological drought: a weather pattern approach D. Richardson et al.
- Predicting East African spring droughts using Pacific and Indian Ocean sea surface temperature indices C. Funk et al.
- Identifying user needs for weather and climate services to enhance resilience to climate shocks in sub-Saharan Africa E. Nkiaka et al.
- Assessing Future Changes of Climate Extreme Events in the CORDEX-MENA Region Using Regional Climate Model ALADIN-Climate F. Driouech et al.
- Advances, gaps and way forward in provision of climate services over the Greater Horn of Africa M. Gudoshava et al.
- Seasonal Forecasting of the Onset of the Rainy Season in West Africa M. Rauch et al.
- Bibliometric Analysis of Methods and Tools for Drought Monitoring and Prediction in Africa O. Adisa et al.
- Modelling the influence of soil moisture on the Turkana jet J. Talib et al.
- Predicting below-average NDVI anomalies for agricultural drought impact forecasting K. De Vos et al.
- Impact-based seasonal rainfall forecasting to trigger early action for droughts T. Busker et al.
- Meteorological to hydrological drought propagation: The influence of future climate change at grid scale T. Abraham et al.
- Effects of clipping and irrigation on carbon storage in grasses: implications for CO2 emission mitigation in rangelands S. Tuffa et al.
- Direct and indirect seasonal rainfall forecasts for East Africa using global dynamical models A. Colman et al.
- Quality and Value of Seasonal Precipitation Forecasts Issued by the West African Regional Climate Outlook Forum J. Bliefernicht et al.
- Multidecadal changes in hydrological droughts across Sub-Saharan Africa D. Peña-Angulo et al.
- Toward Drought Modeling in South Asia: Machine Learning Approaches, Challenges, and Opportunities M. Reshan et al.
- Evolutional characteristics of hydro-meteorological drought studied using standardized indices and wavelet analysis C. Gyamfi et al.
- Subselection of seasonal ensemble precipitation predictions for East Africa C. Heinrich‐Mertsching et al.
- Drivers of Subseasonal Forecast Errors of the East African Short Rains E. Kolstad et al.
- Water security in sub‐Saharan Africa: Understanding the status of sustainable development goal 6 E. Nkiaka et al.
- Assessment of drought events, their trend and teleconnection factors over Burundi, East Africa A. Nkunzimana et al.
- Bias correcting precipitation forecasts to improve the skill of seasonal streamflow forecasts L. Crochemore et al.
- A seasonal agricultural drought forecast system for food-insecure regions of East Africa S. Shukla et al.
- Exploratory studies into seasonal flow forecasting potential for large lakes K. Sene et al.
- Spatio-temporal patterns of domestic water distribution, consumption and sufficiency: Neighbourhood inequalities in Nairobi, Kenya N. Mutono et al.
- Interannual Variability and Seasonal Predictability of Wind and Solar Resources N. Krakauer & D. Cohan
- A joint probabilistic index for objective drought identification: the case study of Haiti B. Monteleone et al.
- Spatial-temporal analysis of historical and projected drought events over Isiolo County, Kenya P. Ochieng et al.
- Skill of Seasonal Rainfall and Temperature Forecasts for East Africa H. Young & N. Klingaman
- Global meteorological drought – Part 2: Seasonal forecasts E. Dutra et al.
- Assessing the ability of the ECMWF seasonal prediction model to forecast extreme September–November rainfall events over Equatorial Africa H. Nana et al.
- Assessing multi-satellite remote sensing, reanalysis, and land surface models' products in characterizing agricultural drought in East Africa N. Agutu et al.
- Amplified risk of spatially compounding droughts during co-occurrences of modes of natural ocean variability J. Singh et al.
- Changes and variability in rainfall onset, cessation, and length of rainy season in the IGAD region of Eastern Africa P. Omay et al.
- ‘Not everybody is an internet person’: Barriers for menopause‐related health literacy among immigrant women from the Horn of Africa nations K. Stanzel et al.
- Should seasonal rainfall forecasts be used for flood preparedness? E. Coughlan de Perez et al.
- Observed changes in wet days and dry spells over the IGAD region of eastern Africa P. Omay et al.
- Analysis of spatiotemporal surface water variability and drought conditions using remote sensing indices in the Kagera River Sub-Basin, Tanzania N. Tibangayuka et al.
- Identifying important drivers of East African October to December rainfall season I. Roy & A. Troccoli
- Lagged oceanic effects on the East African short rains E. Kolstad & D. MacLeod
- Assessment of drought trends in the Upper Ewaso Ng'iro River Basin using the SPI and SPEI J. Kimaiyo et al.
- Understanding uncertainty of model-reanalysis soil moisture within Greater Horn of Africa (1982–2014) N. Agutu et al.
- Assessing the effect of spatial–temporal droughts on dominant crop yield changes in Central Malawi S. Chikabvumbwa et al.
- Hydrological Modeling and Capacity Building in the Republic of Namibia R. Clark et al.
- Comparison of Multi-Year Reanalysis, Models, and Satellite Remote Sensing Products for Agricultural Drought Monitoring over South Asian Countries M. Shahzaman et al.
- Improved multi‐model ensemble forecasts of Iran's precipitation and temperature using a hybrid dynamical‐statistical approach during fall and winter seasons H. Najafi et al.
- The potential value of seasonal forecasts in a changing climate in southern Africa H. Winsemius et al.
- Evaluation of Drought, Wet Events, and Climate Variability Impacts on Maize Crop Yields in East Africa During 1981–2017 M. Ojara et al.
- Developing a multidimensional resilience index for farm households: A food system approach M. Squarcina et al.
- Improved Seasonal Prediction of Rainfall over East Africa for Application in Agriculture: Statistical Downscaling of CFSv2 and GFDL-FLOR O. Kipkogei et al.
- Assessing North American multimodel ensemble (NMME) seasonal forecast skill to assist in the early warning of anomalous hydrometeorological events over East Africa S. Shukla et al.
- Application of real time S2S forecasts over Eastern Africa in the co-production of climate services M. Gudoshava et al.
- Seasonal predictions of agro-meteorological drought indicators for the Limpopo basin F. Wetterhall et al.
- Projected effects of 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming levels on the intra-seasonal rainfall characteristics over the Greater Horn of Africa M. Gudoshava et al.
- Long-term climatic water availability trends and variability across the African continent C. Onyutha
- Evaluation of Meteorological Drought and Flood Scenarios over Kenya, East Africa B. Ayugi et al.
- Historical droughts recorded in extended Juniperus procera ring-width chronologies from the Ethiopian Highlands E. Gebregeorgis et al.
- Ecosystem Productivity and Water Stress in Tropical East Africa: A Case Study of the 2010–2011 Drought E. Robinson et al.
- A baseline probabilistic drought forecasting framework using standardized soil moisture index: application to the 2012 United States drought A. AghaKouchak
- Skill of ECMWF system‐4 ensemble seasonal climate forecasts for East Africa G. Ogutu et al.
- Spatio-Temporal Drought Characterization in Kenya from 1987 to 2016 R. Mutsotso et al.
- Probabilistic rainy season onset prediction over the greater horn of africa based on long-range multi-model ensemble forecasts M. Scheuerer et al.
- Seasonal Prediction of Summer Precipitation over East Africa Using NUIST-CFS1.0 T. Asfaw & J. Luo
- Analysis of Changes in Rainfall Concentration over East Africa H. Babaousmail et al.
- The spatio-temporal trend of climate and characterization of drought in Borana Zone, Ethiopia S. Fanta et al.
- Seasonal forecasts of the rainy season onset over Africa: Preliminary results from the FOCUS-Africa project M. Zampieri et al.
- SeFo: A Package for Generating Probabilistic Forecasts from NMME Predictive Ensembles N. Krakauer
- Skill of dynamical and GHACOF consensus seasonal forecasts of East African rainfall D. Walker et al.
86 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Droughts in East Africa: Causes, impacts and resilience G. Gebremeskel Haile et al.
- Managing the water cycle in Kenyan small‐scale maize farming systems: Part 2. Farmers’ use of formal and informal climate forecasts R. Vervoort et al.
- Using constructed analogs to improve the skill of National Multi-Model Ensemble March–April–May precipitation forecasts in equatorial East Africa S. Shukla et al.
- Regional and farm level droughts characteristics for southwestern Uganda during 1981–2017 M. Ojara et al.
- Seasonal Drought Prediction: Advances, Challenges, and Future Prospects Z. Hao et al.
- Drought: Progress in broadening its understanding G. Haile et al.
- Optimal spatial scales for seasonal forecasts over Africa M. Young et al.
- Predictability of the East Africa long rains through Congo zonal winds N. Ward et al.
- Drought severity across Africa: a comparative analysis of multi-source precipitation datasets K. Lim Kam Sian et al.
- Toward a seasonal precipitation prediction system for West Africa: Performance of CFSv2 and high‐resolution dynamical downscaling J. Siegmund et al.
- Analysis of spatio‐temporal changes in annual and seasonal precipitation variability in South America‐Chile and related ocean–atmosphere circulation patterns R. Valdés‐Pineda et al.
- A coupled human–natural system to assess the operational value of weather and climate services for agriculture Y. Li et al.
- Drivers of sub‐seasonal extreme rainfall and their representation in ECMWF forecasts during the Eastern African March‐to‐May seasons of 2018–2020 M. Gudoshava et al.
- Projected Impacts of Climate Change on Drought Patterns Over East Africa G. Haile et al.
- Impact of climate change on potential evapotranspiration and crop water requirement in Upper Wabe Bridge watershed, Wabe Shebele River Basin, Ethiopia M. Gurara et al.
- Localizing Hydrological Drought Early Warning Using In Situ Groundwater Sensors W. Veness et al.
- Increasing the prospective capacity of global crop and rangeland monitoring with phenology tailored seasonal precipitation forecasts M. Meroni et al.
- Seasonal forecasts of the East African long rains: insight from atmospheric relaxation experiments D. MacLeod
- Improving sub-seasonal forecast skill of meteorological drought: a weather pattern approach D. Richardson et al.
- Predicting East African spring droughts using Pacific and Indian Ocean sea surface temperature indices C. Funk et al.
- Identifying user needs for weather and climate services to enhance resilience to climate shocks in sub-Saharan Africa E. Nkiaka et al.
- Assessing Future Changes of Climate Extreme Events in the CORDEX-MENA Region Using Regional Climate Model ALADIN-Climate F. Driouech et al.
- Advances, gaps and way forward in provision of climate services over the Greater Horn of Africa M. Gudoshava et al.
- Seasonal Forecasting of the Onset of the Rainy Season in West Africa M. Rauch et al.
- Bibliometric Analysis of Methods and Tools for Drought Monitoring and Prediction in Africa O. Adisa et al.
- Modelling the influence of soil moisture on the Turkana jet J. Talib et al.
- Predicting below-average NDVI anomalies for agricultural drought impact forecasting K. De Vos et al.
- Impact-based seasonal rainfall forecasting to trigger early action for droughts T. Busker et al.
- Meteorological to hydrological drought propagation: The influence of future climate change at grid scale T. Abraham et al.
- Effects of clipping and irrigation on carbon storage in grasses: implications for CO2 emission mitigation in rangelands S. Tuffa et al.
- Direct and indirect seasonal rainfall forecasts for East Africa using global dynamical models A. Colman et al.
- Quality and Value of Seasonal Precipitation Forecasts Issued by the West African Regional Climate Outlook Forum J. Bliefernicht et al.
- Multidecadal changes in hydrological droughts across Sub-Saharan Africa D. Peña-Angulo et al.
- Toward Drought Modeling in South Asia: Machine Learning Approaches, Challenges, and Opportunities M. Reshan et al.
- Evolutional characteristics of hydro-meteorological drought studied using standardized indices and wavelet analysis C. Gyamfi et al.
- Subselection of seasonal ensemble precipitation predictions for East Africa C. Heinrich‐Mertsching et al.
- Drivers of Subseasonal Forecast Errors of the East African Short Rains E. Kolstad et al.
- Water security in sub‐Saharan Africa: Understanding the status of sustainable development goal 6 E. Nkiaka et al.
- Assessment of drought events, their trend and teleconnection factors over Burundi, East Africa A. Nkunzimana et al.
- Bias correcting precipitation forecasts to improve the skill of seasonal streamflow forecasts L. Crochemore et al.
- A seasonal agricultural drought forecast system for food-insecure regions of East Africa S. Shukla et al.
- Exploratory studies into seasonal flow forecasting potential for large lakes K. Sene et al.
- Spatio-temporal patterns of domestic water distribution, consumption and sufficiency: Neighbourhood inequalities in Nairobi, Kenya N. Mutono et al.
- Interannual Variability and Seasonal Predictability of Wind and Solar Resources N. Krakauer & D. Cohan
- A joint probabilistic index for objective drought identification: the case study of Haiti B. Monteleone et al.
- Spatial-temporal analysis of historical and projected drought events over Isiolo County, Kenya P. Ochieng et al.
- Skill of Seasonal Rainfall and Temperature Forecasts for East Africa H. Young & N. Klingaman
- Global meteorological drought – Part 2: Seasonal forecasts E. Dutra et al.
- Assessing the ability of the ECMWF seasonal prediction model to forecast extreme September–November rainfall events over Equatorial Africa H. Nana et al.
- Assessing multi-satellite remote sensing, reanalysis, and land surface models' products in characterizing agricultural drought in East Africa N. Agutu et al.
- Amplified risk of spatially compounding droughts during co-occurrences of modes of natural ocean variability J. Singh et al.
- Changes and variability in rainfall onset, cessation, and length of rainy season in the IGAD region of Eastern Africa P. Omay et al.
- ‘Not everybody is an internet person’: Barriers for menopause‐related health literacy among immigrant women from the Horn of Africa nations K. Stanzel et al.
- Should seasonal rainfall forecasts be used for flood preparedness? E. Coughlan de Perez et al.
- Observed changes in wet days and dry spells over the IGAD region of eastern Africa P. Omay et al.
- Analysis of spatiotemporal surface water variability and drought conditions using remote sensing indices in the Kagera River Sub-Basin, Tanzania N. Tibangayuka et al.
- Identifying important drivers of East African October to December rainfall season I. Roy & A. Troccoli
- Lagged oceanic effects on the East African short rains E. Kolstad & D. MacLeod
- Assessment of drought trends in the Upper Ewaso Ng'iro River Basin using the SPI and SPEI J. Kimaiyo et al.
- Understanding uncertainty of model-reanalysis soil moisture within Greater Horn of Africa (1982–2014) N. Agutu et al.
- Assessing the effect of spatial–temporal droughts on dominant crop yield changes in Central Malawi S. Chikabvumbwa et al.
- Hydrological Modeling and Capacity Building in the Republic of Namibia R. Clark et al.
- Comparison of Multi-Year Reanalysis, Models, and Satellite Remote Sensing Products for Agricultural Drought Monitoring over South Asian Countries M. Shahzaman et al.
- Improved multi‐model ensemble forecasts of Iran's precipitation and temperature using a hybrid dynamical‐statistical approach during fall and winter seasons H. Najafi et al.
- The potential value of seasonal forecasts in a changing climate in southern Africa H. Winsemius et al.
- Evaluation of Drought, Wet Events, and Climate Variability Impacts on Maize Crop Yields in East Africa During 1981–2017 M. Ojara et al.
- Developing a multidimensional resilience index for farm households: A food system approach M. Squarcina et al.
- Improved Seasonal Prediction of Rainfall over East Africa for Application in Agriculture: Statistical Downscaling of CFSv2 and GFDL-FLOR O. Kipkogei et al.
- Assessing North American multimodel ensemble (NMME) seasonal forecast skill to assist in the early warning of anomalous hydrometeorological events over East Africa S. Shukla et al.
- Application of real time S2S forecasts over Eastern Africa in the co-production of climate services M. Gudoshava et al.
- Seasonal predictions of agro-meteorological drought indicators for the Limpopo basin F. Wetterhall et al.
- Projected effects of 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming levels on the intra-seasonal rainfall characteristics over the Greater Horn of Africa M. Gudoshava et al.
- Long-term climatic water availability trends and variability across the African continent C. Onyutha
- Evaluation of Meteorological Drought and Flood Scenarios over Kenya, East Africa B. Ayugi et al.
- Historical droughts recorded in extended Juniperus procera ring-width chronologies from the Ethiopian Highlands E. Gebregeorgis et al.
- Ecosystem Productivity and Water Stress in Tropical East Africa: A Case Study of the 2010–2011 Drought E. Robinson et al.
- A baseline probabilistic drought forecasting framework using standardized soil moisture index: application to the 2012 United States drought A. AghaKouchak
- Skill of ECMWF system‐4 ensemble seasonal climate forecasts for East Africa G. Ogutu et al.
- Spatio-Temporal Drought Characterization in Kenya from 1987 to 2016 R. Mutsotso et al.
- Probabilistic rainy season onset prediction over the greater horn of africa based on long-range multi-model ensemble forecasts M. Scheuerer et al.
- Seasonal Prediction of Summer Precipitation over East Africa Using NUIST-CFS1.0 T. Asfaw & J. Luo
- Analysis of Changes in Rainfall Concentration over East Africa H. Babaousmail et al.
- The spatio-temporal trend of climate and characterization of drought in Borana Zone, Ethiopia S. Fanta et al.
- Seasonal forecasts of the rainy season onset over Africa: Preliminary results from the FOCUS-Africa project M. Zampieri et al.
- SeFo: A Package for Generating Probabilistic Forecasts from NMME Predictive Ensembles N. Krakauer
- Skill of dynamical and GHACOF consensus seasonal forecasts of East African rainfall D. Walker et al.
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