Articles | Volume 30, issue 21
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-6737-2026
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-6737-2026
Technical note
 | 
02 Nov 2026
Technical note |  | 02 Nov 2026

Technical note: Benefits of Bayesian estimation of model parameters in a large hydrological model ensemble

Yohei Sawada and Shinichi Okugawa

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Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-4984', Anonymous Referee #1, 06 Jan 2026
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC1', Yohei Sawada, 18 Mar 2026
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-4984', Anonymous Referee #2, 16 Feb 2026
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC2', Yohei Sawada, 18 Mar 2026

Peer review completion

AR – Author's response | RR – Referee report | ED – Editor decision | EF – Editorial file upload
ED: Submit a revised manuscript (08 Jun 2026) by Lelys Bravo de Guenni
AR by Yohei Sawada on behalf of the Authors (09 Jun 2026)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (further review by editor) (10 Aug 2026) by Lelys Bravo de Guenni
AR by Yohei Sawada on behalf of the Authors (12 Aug 2026)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Publish as is (15 Oct 2026) by Lelys Bravo de Guenni
AR by Yohei Sawada on behalf of the Authors (19 Oct 2026)  Manuscript 
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Short summary
We studied how best to handle uncertainty in hydrological models that simulate how rain becomes river flow. We tested a well-known Bayesian way to estimate uncertainty in model settings as well as in model design. This approach helps judge which models are better considering their uncertainty. However, considering uncertainty in model settings is not helpful to provide river flow forecasting, so costly Bayesian tuning is rarely justified for practical purposes.
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