Articles | Volume 30, issue 21
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-6737-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Technical note: Benefits of Bayesian estimation of model parameters in a large hydrological model ensemble
Download
- Final revised paper (published on 02 Nov 2026)
- Preprint (discussion started on 05 Dec 2025)
Interactive discussion
Status: closed
Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor
| : Report abuse
-
RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-4984', Anonymous Referee #1, 06 Jan 2026
- AC2: 'Reply on RC1', Yohei Sawada, 18 Mar 2026
-
RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-4984', Anonymous Referee #2, 16 Feb 2026
- AC1: 'Reply on RC2', Yohei Sawada, 18 Mar 2026
Peer review completion
AR – Author's response | RR – Referee report | ED – Editor decision | EF – Editorial file upload
ED: Submit a revised manuscript (08 Jun 2026) by Lelys Bravo de Guenni
AR by Yohei Sawada on behalf of the Authors (09 Jun 2026)
Author's response
Author's tracked changes
Manuscript
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (further review by editor) (10 Aug 2026) by Lelys Bravo de Guenni
AR by Yohei Sawada on behalf of the Authors (12 Aug 2026)
Author's response
Author's tracked changes
Manuscript
ED: Publish as is (15 Oct 2026) by Lelys Bravo de Guenni
AR by Yohei Sawada on behalf of the Authors (19 Oct 2026)
Manuscript
General comments
This manuscript investigates the roles of parametric and structural uncertainties in hydrological models. Specifically, the study evaluates the scientific and practical benefits of Bayesian parameter estimation within a large ensemble of models. Overall, Bayesian parameter estimation improves the analysis of individual models but provides little additional predictive skill when compared to Bayesian model averaging across the full ensemble. The study tackles an important problem with impacts with operational hydrological forecasting and in the interpretation of hydrological model research. The study is well designed, and the manuscript is clearly written and structured. The manuscript would benefit from clearer figures to more effectively support the conclusions, as well as minor clarifications and typographical corrections.
Specific comments
Technical corrections