Articles | Volume 30, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-659-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Technical note: Literature based approach to estimate future snow
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- Final revised paper (published on 05 Feb 2026)
- Preprint (discussion started on 07 Aug 2025)
Interactive discussion
Status: closed
Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor
| : Report abuse
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RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-3518', J. Ignacio López-Moreno, 27 Aug 2025
- AC2: 'Reply on RC1', Bettina Richter, 31 Oct 2025
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RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-3518', Anonymous Referee #2, 01 Oct 2025
- AC1: 'Reply on RC2', Bettina Richter, 31 Oct 2025
Peer review completion
AR – Author's response | RR – Referee report | ED – Editor decision | EF – Editorial file upload
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (further review by editor) (26 Nov 2025) by Daniel Viviroli
AR by Bettina Richter on behalf of the Authors (11 Dec 2025)
Author's response
Author's tracked changes
Manuscript
ED: Publish subject to technical corrections (16 Dec 2025) by Daniel Viviroli
AR by Bettina Richter on behalf of the Authors (23 Dec 2025)
Manuscript
I enjoyed reading this note and believe it addresses, in a very smart way, an important issue in comparing previous snow projections: the use of different time horizons, models, emission scenarios, etc. Most of the implications of the assumptions and simplifications are well discussed. The manuscript is well written, and I did not identify any methodological flaws. Therefore, I recommend its publication.
Below, I provide a few minor suggestions and some ideas from my related research, which the authors may consider using to further strengthen the discussion:
-I wonder about the impact of the methodology used in previous studies to perturb observed series with climate projections (e.g., the Delta method on seasonal or monthly bases, quantile perturbation, or directly using simulated climate to drive snow models). Different methods may influence the asymmetry in the start and end of the snow season or other metrics that relate snow changes solely to temperature.
- It is somewhat surprising to me that the changes in the start and end of the snow season appear symmetric. Is the projected temperature increase generally similar for winter and spring? Even if it is, I would expect some patterns related to elevation—for instance, an earlier snowmelt may eliminate periods of very high solar radiation, whereas a later snow onset may have less significant implications for incoming solar radiation and melt dynamics. This is particularly true at higher elevations but not at lower ones.
-One of the strengths of this methodology is its ability to translate different scenarios into temperature changes. This can make it easier to communicate results for policy decisions, as many greenhouse gas emission targets are linked to temperature thresholds (e.g., 1.5 °C). This aspect could be highlighted more explicitly in the discussion, as it helps make the results more accessible to non-scientific audiences.
- Related to the previous point, in recent years I have preferred, instead of simulating future snow conditions for different climate models and emission scenarios, to perform sensitivity analyses (e.g., adding 1–2 °C, or ±5–10 % changes in precipitation; see DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abb55f). Then, the changes in T and P can be framed with climate projections for specific regions.. While this approach requires simplifying assumptions about the system, I find it makes the results much easier to compare. It may be interesting to contrast your approach with this type of sensitivity analysis.
- Perhaps Figure 2 could more clearly illustrate how changes in “b” and “c” are derived.
Hoping my comments will result useful,
Best,
J. Ignacio López-Moreno