Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
HESS
Articles | Volume 30, issue 15
Articles | Volume 30, issue 15
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-4957-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-4957-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 30, issue 15
Technical note
 | 
06 Aug 2026
Technical note |  | 06 Aug 2026

Technical note: Temperature dependence of precipitation tail heaviness in the TENAX model

Ella Thomas, Petr Vohnicky, Marco Borga, Nadav Peleg, and Francesco Marra

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Short summary
Extreme rainfall is expected to grow in magnitude with increasing temperature. We assess whether very rare extremes increase with temperature faster than moderate extremes, and we test methods to include this effect into a model to predict future extremes called TENAX. We find that this dependence on temperature is typically observed but including it in the model without prior information on its magnitude may lead to disproportionately large uncertainty.
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