Articles | Volume 30, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-401-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Generating Boundary Conditions for Compound Flood Modeling in a Probabilistic Framework
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- Final revised paper (published on 27 Jan 2026)
- Supplement to the final revised paper
- Preprint (discussion started on 17 Apr 2025)
- Supplement to the preprint
Interactive discussion
Status: closed
Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor
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RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-1557', Anonymous Referee #1, 11 Jul 2025
- AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Pravin Maduwantha Mahanthe Gamage, 25 Aug 2025
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RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-1557', Anonymous Referee #2, 27 Jul 2025
- AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Pravin Maduwantha Mahanthe Gamage, 25 Aug 2025
- AC3: 'Reply on RC2', Pravin Maduwantha Mahanthe Gamage, 25 Aug 2025
Peer review completion
AR – Author's response | RR – Referee report | ED – Editor decision | EF – Editorial file upload
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (further review by editor and referees) (09 Sep 2025) by Alberto Guadagnini
AR by Pravin Maduwantha Mahanthe Gamage on behalf of the Authors (26 Sep 2025)
Author's response
Author's tracked changes
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ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (04 Oct 2025) by Alberto Guadagnini
RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (25 Oct 2025)
RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (08 Dec 2025)
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (11 Dec 2025) by Alberto Guadagnini
AR by Pravin Maduwantha Mahanthe Gamage on behalf of the Authors (28 Dec 2025)
Author's response
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ED: Publish as is (29 Dec 2025) by Alberto Guadagnini
ED: Publish as is (04 Jan 2026) by Thom Bogaard (Executive editor)
AR by Pravin Maduwantha Mahanthe Gamage on behalf of the Authors (12 Jan 2026)
Manuscript
This manuscript presents a modeling framework for evaluating the joint influence of non-tidal residuals (NTR), rainfall (RF), and mean sea level variability on coastal flooding in the Gloucester City area, using the SFINCS hydrodynamic model and a copula-based statistical approach. The topic is timely and relevant, and the study is generally well-structured with a strong emphasis on scenario-based risk quantification. However, several methodological choices—particularly regarding data selection, parameter thresholds, and model assumptions—require further clarification or justification. Issues such as the generalization of AORC performance, the treatment of tropical versus non-tropical events, and simplifications in the SFINCS physics raise concerns about the robustness and generalizability of the findings. Despite these limitations, the study offers valuable insights into compound flood risk assessment. Detailed comments are provided below, which I hope will be useful in clarifying and strengthening the manuscript:
Page 5, Line 146: The sentence claiming that AORC has “higher accuracy” than other gridded rainfall datasets seems too general. For example, radar-based products like MRMS have been shown to perform as well as or better than AORC in some events, including Hurricane Harvey (e.g., Gao et al., 2021; Gomez et al., 2024). I suggest the authors either include MRMS in their comparison or rephrase the sentence to clarify that AORC’s performance advantage may depend on the region or event type.
Refs.:
Gao, S., Zhang, J., Li, D., Jiang, H., & Fang, Z. N. (2021). Evaluation of multiradar multisensor and stage IV quantitative precipitation estimates during Hurricane Harvey. Natural Hazards Review, 22(1), 04020057.
Gomez, F. J., Jafarzadegan, K., Moftakhari, H., & Moradkhani, H. (2024). Probabilistic flood inundation mapping through copula Bayesian multi-modeling of precipitation products. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 24(8), 2647-2665.
Page 6, Line 160-166: In Section 4.1, several choices such as the 3-day pairing window for NTR and RF, the 5-day declustering period, and the 350 km radius for identifying TC events are not clearly explained. It would be helpful to clarify whether these are based on physical reasoning, prior studies, or simply assumptions made for this analysis. Providing brief justifications or references would improve transparency and reproducibility.
Page 8, Line 217-228: Could the authors clarify the physical justification for uniformly scaling entire NTR and RF time series based solely on peak values? For example, does this approach preserve key timing or intensity ratios in cases with asymmetrical hydrographs or localized RF bursts?
Page 10, Line 273-275: The use of SFINCS is well-suited for handling large scenario sets; however, two model limitations warrant further discussion. First, SFINCS does not explicitly model nonlinear tide–surge interactions, which can influence the timing and amplitude of water levels in estuarine environments (e.g., Arns et al., 2020; Dullaart et al., 2023). Second, the omission of advection in the local inertia formulation may affect surge dynamics in narrow tidal channels like those surrounding Gloucester City. I recommend the authors provide a brief sensitivity analysis or comparison illustrating the impact of including vs. excluding the advection term, as SFINCS offers both options (Leijnse et al., 2021).
Refs.:
Arns, A., Wahl, T., Wolff, C., Vafeidis, A. T., Haigh, I. D., Woodworth, P., Niehüser, S., & Jensen, J. (2020). Non-linear interaction modulates global extreme sea levels, coastal flood exposure, and impacts. Nature Communications, 11, 1918.
Dullaart, J. C. M., Muis, S., de Moel, H., Ward, P. J., Eilander, D., & Aerts, J. C. J. H. (2023). Enabling dynamic modelling of coastal flooding by defining storm tide hydrographs. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 23, 1847–1862.
Leijnse, T., Dazzi, S., Yu, D., & Bates, P. D. (2021). Efficient coastal flood hazard mapping with a 2D non-inertia model. Coastal Engineering, 170, 103994.
Page 11, Line 300-301: The authors use a fixed NTR threshold of 0.63 m to yield ~5 exceedances per year, which is reasonable and aligns with past compound flood studies. However, the threshold selection could be strengthened by applying one of several recent automated, data-driven approaches developed for POT analysis, such as the Sequential Goodness-of-Fit method (Bader et al., 2018), the Extrapolated-Height Stability method (Liang et al., 2019), the L-moment Ratio Stability method (Silva Lomba & Fraga Alves, 2020), or the comparative multi-method approach applied in a coastal flood design context by Radfar et al. (2022).
Refs.:
Bader, B., Yan, J., & Zhang, X. (2018). Automated threshold selection in extreme value analysis via goodness-of-fit tests with adjustment for false discovery rate. Annals of Applied Statistics, 12(1), 310–329.
Liang, B., Shao, Z., Li, H., Shao, M., Lee, D., 2019. An automated threshold selection method based on the characteristic of extrapolated significant wave heights. Coast. Eng. 144, 22–32.
Radfar, S., Shafieefar, M., & Akbari, H. (2022). Impact of copula model selection on reliability-based design optimization of a rubble mound breakwater. Ocean Engineering, 260, 112023.
Silva Lomba, J., Fraga Alves, M.I., 2020. L-moments for automatic threshold selection in extreme value analysis. Stoch. Environ. Res. Risk Assess. 34 (3), 465–491.
Page 12, Line 328-336: While the authors maintain stratification for joint probability estimation, they combine TC and non-TC time series for event generation based on overlapping confidence intervals and similar time series shapes. Given the well-established physical differences between tropical and extratropical systems (precipitation structures, spatial scales, storm tracks), could the authors clarify how confident they are that this approach adequately preserves the distinct characteristics of these storm types?
Additionally, given the limited number of TC events, how do the authors assess whether their analysis has sufficient statistical power to detect meaningful differences? Would alternative approaches like physics-based conditioning (e.g., storm track or seasonal constraints) potentially better preserve known meteorological distinctions while addressing sample size limitations?
Page 20, Figure 10: The authors demonstrate substantial flood depth due to MSL and tidal variability using a single most-likely 0.01 AEP event. While this effectively illustrates the potential importance of these factors, could the authors comment on whether this sensitivity pattern is representative across different event types and return periods?
Additionally, given that the most pronounced effects occur along the Delaware River and Newton Creek boundaries, could the authors discuss whether the model's spatial resolution, boundary condition placement, or coastal setup might be influencing the magnitude of these sensitivities?