Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
HESS
Articles | Volume 30, issue 12
Articles | Volume 30, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-3925-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-3925-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 30, issue 12
Research article
 | 
26 Jun 2026
Research article |  | 26 Jun 2026

Daily drought prediction in the Huaihe River Basin using VMD-informer-LSTM

Min Li, Ming Ou, Yuhang Yao, and Changman Yin

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Cited articles

AghaKouchak, A., Farahmand, A., Melton, F. S., Teixeira, J., Anderson, M. C., Wardlow, B. D., and Hain, C. R.: Remote sensing of drought: Progress, challenges and opportunities, Rev. Geophys., 53, 452–480, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014RG000456, 2015. 
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Belayneh, A., Adamowski, J., Khalil, B., and Ozga-Zielinski, B.: Long-term SPI drought forecasting in the Awash River Basin in Ethiopia using wavelet neural network and wavelet support vector regression models, J. Hydrol., 508, 418–429, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.10.052, 2014. 
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Short summary
This study examines the risk of possible water shortages in the Huaihe River Basin and explores whether dry periods can be predicted more reliably. Using decades of daily environmental records, we built a model that separates complex signals into simpler parts and learns their patterns. It forecasts dry conditions more accurately than earlier methods and performs well across regions and time spans. The findings can help the basin prepare for potential water shortages and support better planning.
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