Cao, Z., Zhu, T., and Cai, X.: Hydro-agro-economic optimization for irrigated farming in an arid region: the Hetao Irrigation District, Inner Mongolia, Agric. Water Manage., 277, 108095, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2022.108095, 2023.
Chen, D., Zeng, X., Gui, D., Wang, D., and Wu, J.: Quantifying the hydrological processes in the Tarim River Basin, China, using a coupled groundwater/surface water model, Hydrogeol. J., 33, 1637–1661, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10040-025-02947-7, 2025.
Chen, S.: Optimal allocation of water resources in the Tarim River mainstream based on “three red lines”, Master thesis, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, https://doi.org/10.27157/d.cnki.ghzku.2019.003542, 2019.
Chen, Y.-N., Zilliacus, H., Li, W.-H., Zhang, H.-F., and Chen, Y.-P.: Ground-water level affects plant species diversity along the lower reaches of the Tarim river, Western China, J. Arid Environ., 66, 231–246, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jaridenv.2005.11.009, 2006.
Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S): ERA5-Land hourly data from 1950 to present, Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) Climate Data Store (CDS [data set],) https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.e2161bac, 2019.
Cosgrove, W. J. and Loucks, D. P.: Water management: current and future challenges and research directions, Water Resour. Res., 51, 4823–4839, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014WR016869, 2015.
CSR (Center for Space Research): GRACE terrestrial water storage anomalies, University of Texas at Austin [data set], https://doi.org/10.5067/TEMSC-3JC63, 2023.
Cui, B., Wang, G., Wei, G., Gui, D., Abd-Elmabod, S. K., Goethals, P., and Ahmed, Z.: Proactive policies are the key to reversing desertification in the main stream of the Tarim River in the past 30 years, J. Environ. Manage., 370, 122919, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.122919, 2024.
Deb, K. and Jain, H.: An Evolutionary Many-Objective Optimization Algorithm Using Reference-Point-Based Nondominated Sorting Approach, Part I: Solving Problems With Box Constraints, IEEE T. Evol. Comput., 18, 577–601, https://doi.org/10.1109/TEVC.2013.2281535, 2014.
Dou, X., Ma, X., Huo, T., Zhu, J., and Zhao, C.: Assessment of the environmental effects of ecological water conveyance over 31 years for a terminal lake in Central Asia, CATENA, 208, 105725, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2021.105725, 2022.
FAO: Coping with water scarcity: an action framework for agriculture and food security. FAO Water Reports No. 38, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome, Italy, ISBN 978-92-5-107304-9, 2012.
Feng, M., Chen, Y., Duan, W., Fang, G., Li, Z., Jiao, L., Sun, F., Li, Y., and Hou, Y.: Comprehensive evaluation of the water-energy-food nexus in the agricultural management of the Tarim River Basin, Northwest China, Agr. Water Manage., 271, 107811, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2022.107811, 2022.
Flörke, M., Schneider, C., and McDonald, R. I.: Water competition between cities and agriculture driven by climate change and urban growth, Nat. Sustain., 1, 51–58, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-017-0006-8, 2018.
Gao, B., Xu, J., Deng, M., and Ling, H.: Study on the synergistic effects of ecological water conveyance and climate change on ecological restoration in arid areas: A case study of the Tarim River Basin, Ecol. Eng., 222, 107793, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoleng.2025.107793, 2026.
Gong, P., Wang, J., Yu, L., Zhao, Y., Liang, L., Niu, Z., Huang, X., Fu, H., Liu, S., Li, C., Li, X., Fu, W., Liu, C., Xu, Y., Wang, X., Cheng, Q., Hu, L., Yao, W., Zhang, H., Zhu, P., Zhao, Z., Zhang, H., Zheng, Y., Ji, L., Zhang, Y., Chen, H., Yan, A., Guo, J., Yu, L., Wang, L., Liu, X., Shi, T., Zhu, M., Chen, Y., Yang, G., Tang, P., Xu, B., Giri, C., Clinton, N., Zhu, Z., Chen, J., and Chen, J.: Finer resolution observation and monitoring of global land cover: first mapping results with Landsat TM and ETM
+ data, Int. J. Remote Sens., 34, 2607–2654, https://doi.org/10.1080/01431161.2012.748992, 2013.
Grashey-Jansen, S., Kuba, M., Cyffka, B., Halik, Ü., and Aishan, T.: Spatio-temporal Variability of Soil Water at Three Seasonal Floodplain Sites: A Case Study in Tarim Basin, Northwest China, Chinese Geogr. Sci., 24, 647–657, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11769-014-0717-y, 2014.
Hao, Z., Chen, S., Li, Z., Yu, Z., Shao, Q., Yuan, F., and Shi, F.: Quantitative assessment of the impacts of irrigation on surface water fluxes in the Tarim River, China, Hydrol. Res., 46, 996–1007, https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2015.215, 2015.
Hartmann, H., Snow, J. A., Su, B., and Jiang, T.: Seasonal predictions of precipitation in the Aksu-Tarim River basin for improved water resources management, Global Planet. Change, 147, 86–96, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2016.10.018, 2016.
Hou, X.:
1:1 million vegetation map of China, National Tibetan Plateau / Third Pole Environment Data Center [data set],
http://data.tpdc.ac.cn (last access: 17 June 2026), 2019.
IPCC: Summary for policymakers, in: Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Cambridge University Press, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157940.001, 2022.
Jalilov, S., Amer, S. A., and Ward, F. A.: Managing the water-energy-food nexus: opportunities in Central Asia, J. Hydrol., 557, 407–425, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.12.040, 2018.
Jia, Z.: Research on optimal allocation of ecological water in the main stream of Tarim, MS thesis, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China, https://doi.org/10.27157/d.cnki.ghzku.2020.005646, 2020.
Jiang, L., Chen, X., and Bao, A.: Analysis on the Changing Dynamics of Groundwater Level in the Lower Reaches of the Tarim River, Xinjiang, Arid Land Geogr., 28, 33–37, https://doi.org/10.13826/j.cnki.cn65-1103/x.2005.01.007, 2005. (In Chinese)
Jiao, A., Wang, W., Ling, H., Deng, X., Yan, J., and Chen, F.: Effect evaluation of ecological water conveyance in Tarim River Basin, China, Front. Environ. Sci., 10, 1019695, https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2022.1019695, 2022.
Karner, K., Schmid, E., Schneider, U. A., and Mitter, H.: Computing stochastic Pareto frontiers between economic and environmental goals for a semi-arid agricultural production region in Austria, Ecol. Econ., 185, 107044, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2021.107044, 2021.
Li, H., Zhang, Y., Chiew, F. H., and Xu, S.: Predicting runoff in ungauged catchments by using Xinanjiang model with MODIS leaf area index, J. Hydrol., 370, 155–162, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.03.003, 2009.
Li, W., Hao, A., Liu, Z., and Wan, L. Research on Prospective Areas for Groundwater Exploration in the Tarim Basin, Beijing: Geological Publishing House, 149 pp., ISBN 7-116-03169-3, 2003 (in Chinese).
Li, Z., Wang, Y., Chang, J., Guo, A., Wang, L., Niu, C., Hu, R., and He, B.: Multi-objective double layer water optimal allocation and scheduling framework combing the integrated surface water – groundwater model, Water Res., 262, 122141, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.watres.2024.122141, 2024.
Liao, L., Xue, Z., Dong, B., Zhu, K., Zhang, Q., Wei, F., Fu, G., and Wei, G.: Cumulative Ecohydrological Response to Hydrological Processes in Arid Basins, Ecol. Indic., 111, 106005, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2019.106005, 2020.
Ling, H., Guo, B., Xu, H., and Fu, J.: Configuration of water resources for a typical river basin in an arid region of China based on the ecological water requirements (EWRs) of desert riparian vegetation, Global Planet. Change, 122, 292–304, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2014.09.008, 2014.
Lu, C., Feng, Q., Gao, X., Liu, W., and Ning, T.: Human–water adaptation in drylands: Reconciling water use and ecological security in arid inland river basins of China, J. Clean. Prod., 542, 147561, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2026.147561, 2026.
Markstrom, S. L., Niswonger, R. G., Regan, R. S., Prudic, D. E., and Barlow, P. M.: GSFLOW – Coupled Ground-Water and Surface-Water Flow Model Based on the Integration of the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) and the Modular Ground-Water Flow Model (MODFLOW-2005), U.S. Geological Survey Techniques and Methods, Book 6, Chap. D1, 240 pp., https://doi.org/10.3133/tm6D1, 2008.
Martens, B., Miralles, D. G., Lievens, H., van der Schalie, R., de Jeu, R. A. M., Fernández-Prieto, D., Beck, H. E., Dorigo, W. A., and Verhoest, N. E. C.: GLEAM v3: satellite-based land evaporation and root-zone soil moisture, Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 1903–1925, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1903-2017, 2017.
Meng, X., Mao, K., Meng, F., Shi, J., Zeng, J., Shen, X., Cui, Y., Jiang, L., and Guo, Z.: A fine-resolution soil moisture dataset for China in 2002–2018 (3.0). Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4738556, 2021a.
Meng, X., Mao, K., Meng, F., Shi, J., Zeng, J., Shen, X., Cui, Y., Jiang, L., and Guo, Z.: A fine-resolution soil moisture dataset for China in 2002–2018, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 3239–3261, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-3239-2021, 2021.
Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of Xinjiang: National Agricultural Product Cost-Benefit Compilation and Annual Crop Price Statistics. Urumqi: Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of Xinjiang,
https://nynct.xinjiang.gov.cn/ (last access: 19 June 2026), 2025.
Miralles, D. G., De Jeu, R. A. M., Gash, J. H., Holmes, T. R. H., and Dolman, A. J.: Magnitude and variability of land evaporation and its components at the global scale, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 967–981, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-967-2011, 2011.
Naranjo, L., Correa-Cano, M. E., Rey, D., Chengot, R., España, F., Sactic, M., Knox, J. W., Yan, X., Viteri-Salazar, O., Foster, W., and Melo, O.: A scenario-specific nexus modelling toolkit to identify trade-offs in the promotion of sustainable irrigated agriculture in Ecuador, a Belt and Road country, J. Clean. Prod., 413, 137350, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2023.137350, 2023.
Niu, G., Zheng, Y., Han, F., and Qin, H.: The nexus of water, ecosystems and agriculture in arid areas: a multi-objective optimization study on system efficiencies, Agr. Water Manage., 223, 105697, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2019.105697, 2019.
Pang, Z., Huang, T., and Chen, Y.: Diminished groundwater recharge and circulation relative to degrading riparian vegetation in the middle Tarim River, Xinjiang Uygur, Western China, Hydrol. Process., 24, 147–159, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.7438, 2010.
Paul, M., Rajib, A., Negahban‐Azar, M., Shirmohammadi, A., and Srivastava, P.: Improved agricultural water management in data‐scarce semi‐arid watersheds: Value of integrating remotely sensed leaf area index in hydrological modeling, Sci. Total Environ., 791, 148177, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.148177, 2021.
Qiu, Y. and Wang, X.: Daily fractional snow cover dataset over High Asia (2002–2018), National Cryosphere Desert Data Center [data set], https://doi.org/10.11922/sciencedb.457, 2020.
Saidmamatov, O., Rudenko, I., Pfister, S., and Koziel, J.: Water-Energy-Food Nexus Framework for Promoting Regional Integration in Central Asia, Water, 12, 1896, https://doi.org/10.3390/w12071896, 2020.
Save, H.: CSR GRACE and GRACE-FO RL06 Mascon Solutions v02, University of Texas at Austin [data set], https://doi.org/10.15781/cgq9-nh24, 2020.
Save, H., Bettadpur, S., and Tapley, B. D.: High resolution CSR GRACE RL05 mascons, J. Geophys. Res.-Sol. Ea., 121, 7547–7569, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JB013007, 2016.
Song, J., Yang, Y., Sun, X., Lin, J., Wu, M., Wu, J., and Wu, J.: Basin-scale multi-objective simulation-optimization modeling for conjunctive use of surface water and groundwater in northwest China, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2323–2341, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2323-2020, 2020.
Tang, X., Huang, Y., Pan, X., Liu, T., Ling, Y., and Peng, J.: Managing the water-agriculture-environment-energy nexus: trade-offs and synergies in an arid area of Northwest China, Agr. Water Manage., 295, 108776, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2024.108776, 2024.
Tao, J., Zuo, Q., Xue, H., Wang, Y., and Zhang, L.: Control indicators and determination method of the “three red lines” in the strictest water resources management system, Water Sav. Irrig., 4, 64–67,
https://kns.cnki.net/kcms/detail/detail.aspx?dbcode=CJFD&filename=JSGU201204019 (last access: 17 June 2026), 2012.
Tuoliewubieke, D., Yao, J., Mao, W., Chen, P., Ma, L., Chen, J., and Li, S.: Dominant spring precipitation anomaly modes and circulation characteristics in the Tarim Basin, Central Asia, Atmos. Res., 313, 107767, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107767, 2025.
Wang, G., Xu, S., and Xie, Z.: Study on suitable lake area of Taitema Lake, Groundwater, 41, 6–10, https://doi.org/10.16616/j.cnki.11-4446/TV.2021.09.02, 2021 (in Chinese).
Wang, X., Xu, H., Liu, K., Zhao, X., Wei, G., Aili, A., and Zheng, G.: Ecological water conveyance-driven wetland hydrological connectivity and morphological changes in arid regions: An analysis of the Taitema Lake wetland, J. Environ. Manage., 385, 125615, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.125615, 2025.
Wang, Y., Guo, X., Zhang, F., Yin, H., Guo, P., Zhang, W., and Li, Q.: The spatially-distributed ANN-optimization approach for water-agriculture-ecology nexus management under uncertainties and risks, Agr. Water Manage., 271, 107780, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2022.107780, 2022.
Watson, J. E. M., Iwamura, T., and Butt, N.: Mapping vulnerability and conservation adaptation strategies under climate change, Nat. Clim. Change, 3, 989–994, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2007, 2013.
Wieder, W. R., Boehnert, J., Bonan, G. B., and Langseth, M.: Harmonized World Soil Database (version 1.2), ORNL DAAC [data set], https://doi.org/10.3334/ORNLDAAC/1247, 2014.
Wu, W., Clark, J. S., and Vose, J. M.: Assimilating multi-source uncertainties of a parsimonious conceptual hydrological model using hierarchical Bayesian modeling, J. Hydrol., 394, 436–446, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.09.017, 2010.
Xu, H., Ye, M., Song, Y., and Chen, Y.: The Natural Vegetation Responses to the Groundwater Change Resulting from Ecological Water Conveyances to the Lower Tarim River, Environ. Monit. Assess., 131, 37–48, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-006-9455-7, 2007.
Xue, D., Gui, D., Ci, M., Liu, Q., Wei, G., and Liu, Y.: Spatial and temporal downscaling schemes to reconstruct high-resolution GRACE data: A case study in the Tarim River Basin, Northwest China, Sci. Total Environ., 907, 167908, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.167908, 2024.
Ye, Z., Chen, S., Zhang, Q., Liu, Y., and Zhou, H.: Ecological water demand of Taitema Lake in the lower reaches of the Tarim River and the Cherchen River, Remote Sens., 14, 832, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs14040832, 2022.
Yin, Z., Wu, J., Song, J., Yang, Y., Zhu, X., and Wu, J.: Multi-objective optimization-based reactive nitrogen transport modeling for the water-environment-agriculture nexus in a basin-scale coastal aquifer, Water Res., 212, 118111, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.watres.2022.118111, 2022.
Zafarmomen, N., Alizadeh, H., Bayat, M., Ehtiat, M., and Moradkhani, H.: Assimilation of Sentinel-based leaf area index for modeling surface-ground water interactions in irrigation districts, Water Resour. Res., 60, e2023WR036080, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023WR036080, 2024.
Zeng, X. and Chen, D.: A coupled surface water-groundwater multi-objective optimization framework for coordinated water-ecosystem-agriculture management in arid inland river basin, Zenodo, [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18151460, 2025.
Zhang, X. and Ren, L.: Simulating and assessing the effects of seasonal fallow schemes on the water-food-energy nexus in a shallow groundwater-fed plain of the Haihe River basin of China, J. Hydrol., 595, 125992, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.125992, 2021.
Zhang, X., Chen, Y., Li, W., Yu, Y., and Sun, Z.: Restoration of the lower reaches of the Tarim River in China, Reg. Environ. Change, 13, 1021–1029, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-013-0403-0, 2013.
Zhu, W.: Study on multi-objective water resources allocation scheme in the lower reaches of the Tarim River, Groundwater, 44, 213–215, https://doi.org/10.19807/j.cnki.DXS.2022-02-073, 2022.
